Author Topic: Coronavirus?  (Read 10731 times)

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Offline AnneK

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2020, 07:32:17 am »
Anyone else worried about this Coronavirus?

I'm getting a bit panicky since a new case showed up in my state today.

Lisa

My understanding is the risk is very low, unless you're close to someone who has come from the high risk areas.
I'm a 67 year old AMAB who has been thinking about SRS for many years.  I also was a  full cross dresser for a few years.  I wear a bra, pantyhose and nail polish daily because it just feels right.

Started HRT April 17, 2019.

Offline AnneK

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2020, 07:33:40 am »
And apparently according to pbs if your in Hawaii, buy massive quantities of toilet paper.  :o

????

What that supposed to do.  I thought the risk was at the other end.   ;)
I'm a 67 year old AMAB who has been thinking about SRS for many years.  I also was a  full cross dresser for a few years.  I wear a bra, pantyhose and nail polish daily because it just feels right.

Started HRT April 17, 2019.

Offline AnonyMs

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2020, 09:43:54 am »
I don't think people are taking this as seriously as it deserves.

Just because previous scares didn't have much impact doesn't mean none of them will. The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 27% of the population and killed somewhere between 17-100 million people. And lest we think medicine has advanced since then, large numbers of people getting ill at the same time will totally overwhelm hospitals ability to look after them. Apparently 1 in 5 people with the virus will require hospitalization.  Good luck with that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Whats happened so far in the USA (or Australia) is no indication of whats coming.

This is from 2 weeks ago, China has quarantine and travel restrictions for 780 million people.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html

I don't think they are doing it for fun, and it's certainly got nothing to do with USA politics. Its heavily damaging to China's economy. Good for air pollution though.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/04/811019032/why-chinas-air-has-been-cleaner-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak

This is the only thing that limits the virus right now, there's not going to be a vaccine for a long time. I can't see the USA doing that.

Japan has shut down the public school system, and their social system is far more suited for that kind of thing that we are.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/05/national/99-japan-elementary-schools-close-doors-coronavirus/

Its already affecting the trans community, in a small way

The Suporn Clinic in Thailand has just cancelled all further surgery for the rest of March and April. And who knows what they will do after that.

http://www.supornclinic.com/HTML/News/whatsnew.html

By the sound of it this is from the Thai government, so its going to apply to all medical tourism there.  I expect if things get bad all elective surgery will be cancelled everywhere.

China shutting down will have knock on effects on the global supply chain. India is one of the major worldwide drug manufacturers and has just restricted the export of a number of drugs. That could turn out badly for some, and get worse as the months go by.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51731719

I look at a forum where medical professionals from around the world post, and the tone among doctors there is very concerned.

There's endless more examples. I barely noticed the previous scares, but this one worries me.

Lets hope, but I don't think this is the same as before.

Offline Heather A

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #23 on: March 05, 2020, 12:12:00 pm »
I’m not terribly worried,  Last I read it’s about 2% of the people who catch it end up dying.  It does remind me of the bird flu and mad cow disease epidemic from years ago.  Right now I have a low chance to catch it, just try to wash my hands more frequently and not touch my face and I should be ok.

I’m more worried about people hoarding supplies.  When I went to Costco some of the overflow shelving was empty in a number of spots in the store.  Specifically water and non perishable food.


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Offline barbie

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2020, 12:59:07 pm »
Yes. Panic is more serious than the virus itself. The public responses may look insane, but the COVID-19 is extremely contagious. In a few years, most people in the earth will have antibodies to the virus after contracting and recovering from it with or without symptoms, before it kills a tiny fraction, but a huge number of people. Once more and more people become immune to the virus, it will no longer so much contagious.

Economic impacts are already massive and huge around the world. None of my friends has visited here from the mainland since the middle of February, making me stay mostly at home. Most restaurants here are empty. All of my schedules for meetings and trips were already canceled. I was to visit as an invited speaker Danang, Vietnam in late March, but the Vietnamese government-imposed travel restriction on all flights from S. Korea.

But I am actually glad that my winter vacation was extended by 2 weeks (and hopefully more later). My little daughter is happy as the beginning of school was postponed by 3 weeks (and hopefully more later). Tomorrow we are going to hike in nearby small mountains.

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Offline barbie

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2020, 01:06:47 pm »
I’m not terribly worried,  Last I read it’s about 2% of the people who catch it end up dying.

I guess it is actually less than 0.5% as the number of test increases, but the problem is that a huge number of people will be infected, making the death toll higher.



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Offline AnonyMs

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2020, 03:08:49 pm »
It appears that it’s only so low at the moment because hospitals can still cope. Once they can’t it’s going to go through the roof.

Offline sarahc

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2020, 06:12:54 pm »
I am worried because my FFS is scheduled for late April, which will probably be just when the pandemic is getting bad. I think it is quite unlikely that I'll be able to go through with the surgery at that time, and it is also quite possible that I won't be able to travel to my surgeon.

My surgeon's office has been a little waffle-y about what happens to my deposit if I can't make it there because of travel restrictions. I think they're still trying to figure out what their policy is going to be. But my surgery is scheduled to be performed at an urban hospital and I can't imagine that they're going to be able to get an elective surgery done at a hospital at that time.

Moreover, I'm not even sure it's even going to be a good idea to get an elective surgery at that time. I certainly don't want to be in a position where my surgeon pushes me to go ahead, and if I don't feel comfortable about it, he'll bill me the full surgery fee...

Very frustrating...when I was thinking about what could go wrong with my transition timeline, I certainly did not put "pandemic" on the set of risk factors!  >:(

Oh yeah, I also don't want to die or have a severe respiratory disease. That would be bad, too. Don't joke about "only" a 1% death rate, or even a 0.1% rate for younger people. That is still a very deadly disease if tens of millions of people catch the virus. And even though I'm healthy, I'm pretty mindful that getting sick is going to be bad (although probably unavoidable at this point...).

Sarah
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48 years young.
Known that I am trans since...forever.
First therapy session / decided to transition / hair removal: October 2018
HRT: January 2019 (journal https://www.susans.org/forums/index.phpVF/topic,244009.0.html)
VFS: September 2019; three-month report here
Full-time: April 2020
FFS: August 2020
SRS: January 2021

Offline Lisa89125

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2020, 10:03:20 pm »
This Virus is certainly going to toss a monkey wrench in the works for a bunch of us who are trying to push forward with our own timelines.

I get the feeling right around my B-Day in May, things are going to be really, really bad here in the states.

I'm hoping I can get stocked up a little on essentials and can hunker down and hide if need to be for a time. But at the end of the day, who pays the bills if we can't go to work? I don't think the Gov't has any clues on what to do about all these little issues?

This is a scary situation for everyone around the world. Yet the political leaders ain't taking it seriously enough.

Lisa
"My inner self knows better than my outer self my true gender"

Offline Julielynn

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2020, 11:00:30 pm »
From what I'm gathering from my friends (who are mostly doctors), it's well on it's way to infecting a lot of the USA.  The only real benefit in this country is there is a lot of open space so some places might never see it. 

Detroit seems to be locking down and supplying masks to doctors offices now.  At least they are trying, but expect it to get crazy for a bit. 

Personally, I'd say stock up on things that people are going to freak out on.  Toilet paper, toothpaste, the necessities.  Only reason being is too many might try to hoard and run the stores out, being a pain in the butt if you run out.   Aside from that, it's fairly expected to see it hit your area.   It may not kill everyone by any means, but it sounds like it knocks you into bed hard.    That alone is a reason things might get disrupted quite a bit.   I expect a bunch of people to try and hunker down to wait it out, which isn't going to work out real well.   It's here to play for a while.


Offline Lisa89125

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2020, 11:42:44 am »
Julielynn,

I'm afraid my area might well be overrun with this plague before too much longer. We've got 3 or 4 cases now. And who knows how many more on the way.

Our local Newspaper has an article on the latest case. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article240915536.html

It's also important to stock up on any of the medications we take as part of our regiment. But who knows if we'll even have the strength to take them?

Being a pet owner, I'm also aware of the need to stock up on food, medicine, treats, toys, etc. If I get sick, I wonder if I will be able to even take em outside to poop?

I'm starting to think I'm getting anxiety over this ordeal. Yet I survived the SARS thing of 2003. One student in my school got it after coming home from a Church mission to China. That scared me a just a wee little bit.

Lisa
"My inner self knows better than my outer self my true gender"

Offline BrightWindow

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2020, 12:13:09 pm »
I live in UK and have no concerns whatsoever about dying from the outbreak. I am a little concerned for my relatives who are older and/or have underlying health conditions but even so I don't think it's a huge risk. The panic caused might be a little inconvenient (shortages of goods for instance) but I am optimistic that on the large part my life and those of most of my friends and relatives will be largely unaffected.
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Offline Pammie

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2020, 12:53:40 pm »
I live in UK and have no concerns whatsoever about dying from the outbreak. I am a little concerned for my relatives who are older and/or have underlying health conditions but even so I don't think it's a huge risk. The panic caused might be a little inconvenient (shortages of goods for instance) but I am optimistic that on the large part my life and those of most of my friends and relatives will be largely unaffected.
I totally agree. The fatality rate for normal flu is actually higher and thousands have died from it this winter. I do despair at the way people panic.


I opened the door and the light shone in

Offline Battle Goddess

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2020, 05:20:55 pm »
I totally agree. The fatality rate for normal flu is actually higher and thousands have died from it this winter. I do despair at the way people panic.


I opened the door and the light shone in
My buddy, also a statistician, and I enjoy trading morbid jokes.

Today he pointed out that based on current evidence, where we live you're more likely to be killed by O. J. Simpson than by the coronavirus.
"It's not really a choice. Because we're not choosing to transition...we're choosing to be happy." -- SarahC

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Offline RandyL

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2020, 06:39:14 pm »
My buddy, also a statistician, and I enjoy trading morbid jokes.

Today he pointed out that based on current evidence, where we live you're more likely to be killed by O. J. Simpson than by the coronavirus.
Oh God, now I'm terrified South Korea probably has the best statistics since they are testing so many people. Not like the US where only the really sick get tested. As of a few days ago they had 0.6% death rate on thousands of cases. So it's not 2% like we originally thought, but still about 3 times worse than the usual annual flu. Not likely to take down any particular individual, but worth avoiding if you're in a higher risk category.

Of course the seasonal flu infects many thousands, so even though the mortality rate is lower, it kills many more overall.

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Offline Battle Goddess

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2020, 07:07:44 pm »
Oh God, now I'm terrified

Hey, look on the bright side - you got nothing to fear from O.J.!



"It's not really a choice. Because we're not choosing to transition...we're choosing to be happy." -- SarahC

Spironolactone January 10 2019
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Estradiol Valerate March 14 2019

Offline sarahc

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2020, 08:35:39 pm »
I was doing errands around town today (Maryland USA), doing normal things, and all I could think was, "4-6 weeks from now, everything is going to be completely disrupted." It is so weird to know that life is going to fundamentally change in a matter of weeks...and yet here we all are, generally acting as if everything is normal.

I really don't think most people understand how much the coronavirus will affect daily lives, but in the next couple of weeks, it's going to start to hit home. I think much of Europe and the urban USA is going to have to put in measures like what Italy has needed to do, simply because the hospitals are going to get overwhelmed - it's really hard for people to grasp the exponential effects of viral infections and how fast these things can become a crisis. It's weird to say this, but I think the cornoavirus might be undercovered in the news so far, but by necessity that's going to change.

Just not feeling great right now about things in society...a lot of people are going to die, and it's not going to be fun to witness. :(

Sarah
----
48 years young.
Known that I am trans since...forever.
First therapy session / decided to transition / hair removal: October 2018
HRT: January 2019 (journal https://www.susans.org/forums/index.phpVF/topic,244009.0.html)
VFS: September 2019; three-month report here
Full-time: April 2020
FFS: August 2020
SRS: January 2021

Offline Lisa89125

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2020, 10:57:20 pm »
I agree.

It's the calm before the storm.

What I was thinking about earlier is what happens if this Coronavirus is still here by summer and a major hurricane hits?

I get an uneasy feeling thinking about that scenario.

Lisa
"My inner self knows better than my outer self my true gender"

Offline barbie

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2020, 11:08:02 pm »
A piece of good news. In S. Korea, the ratio of confirmed to tested number of people for COVID-19 has steadily decreased since Feb. 29, and today it is less than 2%. Hopefully, below 1% tomorrow.

Date   Confirmed Tested  Confirmed(+)  Tested(+)    Rate

2.28   2,022     70,940     427     12,950     3.30%

2.29   2,931     85,693     909     14,753     6.16%

3.1     3,526     96,985     595     11,292     5.27%

3.2    4,212     109,591     686     12,606     5.44%

3.3    4,812     125,851     600     16,260     3.69%

3.4    5,328     136,707     516     10,856     4.75%

3.5    5,766     146,541     438     9,834     4.45%

3.6    6,284     164,740     518     18,199     2.85%

3.7    6,767     178,189     483     13,449     3.59%

3.8    7,134     188,518     367     10,329     3.55%

3.9    7,382     196,618     248     8,100     3.06%

3.10  7,573     210,144     191    13,526     1.41%

I think it is now close to 'under control'.

Yes. The COVID-19 is extremely contagious, especially in any indoor space. The problem is not the fatality per se, but the huge number of people infected

barbie~~
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Offline AnonyMs

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Re: Coronavirus?
« Reply #39 on: March 10, 2020, 03:03:17 am »
10% of patients require intensive care - oxygen for 2 weeks. Once there’s enough cases there will no longer be any ICU beds and that will turn into a 10% death rate. I believe there’s  another 5 to 10% that require hospitalisation on top of that.

There’s not many ICU  beds in any country, so while we’re  not there yet we will be unless government takes extreme action. I can’t say I have much confidence in the Australian government, but it could be worse I suppose.

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