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I recommend in the strongest possible terms that members in the US ensure they have 1 to 1-1/2 months worth of supplies in their home. It is going to  be necessary very soon. Expect to discover what this is about in the next week to 10 days.

That is a pretty strong recommendation.   

Six weeks of supplies is substantial undertaking in our increasingly just in time and limited inventory universe.   

I am increasingly skeptical that our system will survive this panic begetting more panic cascading that we have started.

So what is it that you know and expect to see happen next week that is greater than what we are seeing today?

Lets put it this way I have heard from multiple sources, included a very trusted one who works in the 5 sided funny farm that the US is 1 week to 10 days from where Italy is now including the mandatory lock down. When it occurs expect it to be a month.

I also look to Italy as to what's coming for the US.

This will be a telling week in Post Covid19 Universe.   I no longer have enough understanding of relevant human behavior to hazard anything but wild guesses.   I watched people buy 50 pound bags of flour earlier today without yeast or baking powder on their cart.   Two of three local firearms stores had a lines longer than I have ever seen.  Toilet Paper has been vacant from shelves for a week. 

If the rate of estimated infections drops off--which I hope--and measures to date are shown to be effective, then we may find a Post Covid19 universe norm for a while.   If the rate of spreading infections is not perceived as declining or mitigated, then the next level is out of my ability to predict.  Those of us in infrastructure supplying professions are going to be backed into an ugly corner as 66% of what we do in my niche can be done remotely, the other 34% must have me mobile.   

An early summer may be a welcome blessing in many ways. 


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