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General Discussions => Health => Topic started by: Lisa89125 on March 02, 2020, 07:55:32 pm

Title: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 02, 2020, 07:55:32 pm
Anyone else worried about this Coronavirus?

I'm getting a bit panicky since a new case showed up in my state today.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Jessica on March 02, 2020, 08:18:28 pm
Wash your hands!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 02, 2020, 08:41:38 pm
Not worried. The list of things that were going to end the world in my lifetime were, among others, AIDS, Y2K, SARS, Lyme disease, Ebola, West Nile disease, Zika virus, and so on. The fact is, flu kills more people every year than any of the above mentioned afflictions...but the news cycle doesn't pick it up....
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Tess100 on March 02, 2020, 09:37:59 pm
And apparently according to pbs if your in Hawaii, buy massive quantities of toilet paper.  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 02, 2020, 09:56:16 pm
Yes, I'm worried. The mortality rate is much greater than the flu and one infectious disease expert predicts that 40-70% of all Americans will contract it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on March 02, 2020, 10:29:37 pm
Yes, I'm worried. The mortality rate is much greater than the flu and one infectious disease expert predicts that 40-70% of all Americans will contract it.

@Oldandcreaky:
When NUMBERS like that are mentioned I would really like to
 read any documentation that can back it up.???
Can you post anything more specific???   Name, Source, Date, etc...? ???

Personally, I think that the Coronavirus is being over-hyped by the NEWS organizations ...
...this can lead to unfounded pandemonium and disruptions.  Time will tell....

Wash your hands very often and don't touch your face and stay a distance away from people that are sneezing, coughing and blowing their nose.
Be careful regarding shaking hands with others.


Best wishes to you, and stay safe.
Danielle


    cc: @Jessica  @Devlyn  @Tess100  @Lisa89125
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MistressStevie on March 02, 2020, 10:55:48 pm
This time next year we will be lamenting the political situation and wondering about which way the economy is going to go.   We will be worried about our friends and family and trying to find new ways to tread water or get ahead.   Covid-19 or Coronavirus will be be old news if it is remember much at all.   Smart folks will use this over reaction to actually include more continuity planning in their systems.   If Coronavirus is remembered at all it will be in comparison to all the the other end of times warnings that had minimal effect.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Danielle Kristina on March 02, 2020, 11:55:49 pm
I'm not worried.  Anyone remember the West Nile Virus, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, or Zika?  Each one of these was supposed to doom us all, yet when was the last time anyone heard of one of these illnesses infecting someone?  One day an illness is the end of the world and everyone goes into Panic-Mode, then suddenly we never hear of it again.  Hmm... I wonder if the Coronavirus will suddenly disappear just like the others did.
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 03, 2020, 05:22:50 am
I am not worried at all about Coronavirus, in spite of the news media exaggeration of the health issues.

If you wish to minimize your risk do the following:

1. Wash your hands before putting anything to your mouth.
2. Cough or sneeze in a safe direction away from others.
3. Avoid large crowds.
4. Practice safe general hygiene and sanitation in yourself and in your home and surroundings.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 03, 2020, 07:17:58 am
@Oldandcreaky:
When NUMBERS like that are mentioned I would really like to
 read any documentation that can back it up.???
Can you post anything more specific???   Name, Source, Date, etc...? ???

Personally, I think that the Coronavirus is being over-hyped by the NEWS organizations ...
...this can lead to unfounded pandemonium and disruptions.  Time will tell....

Wash your hands very often and don't touch your face and stay a distance away from people that are sneezing, coughing and blowing their nose.
Be careful regarding shaking hands with others.


Best wishes to you, and stay safe.
Danielle


    cc: @Jessica  @Devlyn  @Tess100  @Lisa89125

Here's a Harvard epidemiologist who's estimating that 40-70% of us will contract the virus:  <Link not allowed>

If you don't do links, here's the summation sentence: "Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told The Wall Street Journal that "it's likely we'll see a global pandemic" of coronavirus, with 40 to 70 percent of the world's population likely to be infected this year."

Here's another doc estimating from the same article: "Ira Longini, a biostatistician and adviser to the World Health Organization (WHO), has predicted that two-thirds of the global population may eventually contract COVID-19."

Here's yet another doc opining from the same article: "Prof Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University, says if the transmission estimate of 2.5 additional people for each infected rate is accurate, that would result in an "attack rate" that would affect 60 to 80 percent of the world's population."

I assume all three are drawing from the scientific process, their experiences, available data, and a statistical approach. There hasn't been time for them to conduct studies and even if they had, I lack the vocabulary to decode such studies. Even their abstracts challenge me.

I further assume that various governments are lying, like the Americans and Chinese, as they've reasons to project a false, rosy outlook. I doubt the 3% mortality rate. Iran is reporting 8-18% mortality, as reported by The New Yorker.

Approximately 100 Americans are infected. Six are dead. That's a teeny sampling, but that's double the mortality rate reported by the Chinese.

Here's Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch again, from The Atlantic: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

And here's that link:  <Link not allowed>


Danielle Kristina wrote: "Anyone remember the West Nile Virus, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, or Zika?"

Yes, of course. 

"Each one of these was supposed to doom us all,...."

No. No person of science ever said that.

"Yet when was the last time anyone heard of one of these illnesses infecting someone?"

They're all still with us. They still kill. For example, H5N1, aka bird flu, has a 60% mortality rate.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 03, 2020, 07:32:56 am
In case you don't click on The Atlantic article, here's a telling paragraph which gives a fuller context to the second Lipsitch quote: "The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

I'm familiar with that pause. I interview many people of science and did coursework at Harvard Medical School. It's the pause of precision, of a person wanting to get it as right as they're possibly able, given all current data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on March 03, 2020, 09:00:37 am
@Oldandcreaky
Thank you for providing some additional information... interesting reading for sure.
 ...... time will tell if this becomes what some are predicting.

Best wishes to you and stay safe and healthy.


HUGS,
Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 03, 2020, 11:17:17 am
Ah, I see now that susans.org didn't permit my links. Well, you can copy and paste the quotes along with the source material and do a search to read the quotes in context.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Danielle Kristina on March 03, 2020, 12:19:14 pm

Danielle Kristina wrote: "Anyone remember the West Nile Virus, SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, or Zika?"

Yes, of course. 

"Each one of these was supposed to doom us all,...."

No. No person of science ever said that.

"Yet when was the last time anyone heard of one of these illnesses infecting someone?"

They're all still with us. They still kill. For example, H5N1, aka bird flu, has a 60% mortality rate.

Maybe no scientist said that those diseases would doom us all, but the media sure hyped it up as such and the public bought into it.  Yet here we are!    And if the illnesses that once sent the nation into panic are still with us, then why don't people mention them anymore?  HIV still gets mentioned frequently and not only has it been around for more than 30 years, but advances in medicines for the illness have since developed - yet we still hear about it.  Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc. are not mentioned anymore, at least not on the news, social media, or in public conversations.  At their heights they were "Flavors of the Month," but not now.  So, this begs the question, "What's changed?"

I'm not advocating carelessness when it comes to these illnesses.  I too recommend taking care of oneself as measures to prevent catching the Corona Virus or whatever other sickness may be floating around.  What I'm saying, however, is that it is not time to go into Panic Mode.  Right now, the Corona Virus is the hot topic and thus it's getting all the "doom and gloom" attention.  The media hypes up whatever brings in the most ratings and the people eat it up.  Then we find ourselves in mass panic, all for the actual event to blow over and life gets back to normal. 

Let's not forget that car crashes, murders, wars, drug overdoses, other diseases, mortal injuries, and even old age kill people too, and each in greater numbers than the viruses I've mentioned - yet no body's panicking.  We live in a dangerous world.  I wish we didn't, but we do.  That's life.  Since none of us are getting out of this life alive anyway, let's live it to the fullest instead of trying to survive it by panicking. 

Again, not saying that the Corona Virus is not serious.  I'm saying that we've seen illnesses hyped up beyond necessity before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 03, 2020, 12:46:14 pm
Ah, I see now that susans.org didn't permit my links. Well, you can copy and paste the quotes along with the source material and do a search to read the quotes in context.

From the Terms of Service:

Members with a post rank of "family" or higher may post links to off site information provided that the information does not otherwise violate the Terms of Service. This is a privilege that will be revoked if abused.


Links belong in the Links Directory, you are free to place them there if you wish.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 03, 2020, 12:50:32 pm


Maybe no scientist said that those diseases would doom us all, but the media sure hyped it up as such and the public bought into it.  Yet here we are!    And if the illnesses that once sent the nation into panic are still with us, then why don't people mention them anymore?  HIV still gets mentioned frequently and not only has it been around for more than 30 years, but advances in medicines for the illness have since developed - yet we still hear about it.  Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc. are not mentioned anymore, at least not on the news, social media, or in public conversations.  At their heights they were "Flavors of the Month," but not now.  So, this begs the question, "What's changed?"

I'm not advocating carelessness when it comes to these illnesses.  I too recommend taking care of oneself as measures to prevent catching the Corona Virus or whatever other sickness may be floating around.  What I'm saying, however, is that it is not time to go into Panic Mode.  Right now, the Corona Virus is the hot topic and thus it's getting all the "doom and gloom" attention.  The media hypes up whatever brings in the most ratings and the people eat it up.  Then we find ourselves in mass panic, all for the actual event to blow over and life gets back to normal. 

Let's not forget that car crashes, murders, wars, drug overdoses, other diseases, mortal injuries, and even old age kill people too, and each in greater numbers than the viruses I've mentioned - yet no body's panicking.  We live in a dangerous world.  I wish we didn't, but we do.  That's life.  Since none of us are getting out of this life alive anyway, let's live it to the fullest instead of trying to survive it by panicking. 

Again, not saying that the Corona Virus is not serious.  I'm saying that we've seen hyped up beyond necessity before.

Indeed. Let's not forget, the human race hasn't produced a survivor yet.   :)

We all go when our number is called.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 03, 2020, 02:11:20 pm
"...the media sure hyped it up as such...."

Sure, if it bleeds, it leads.

"And if the illnesses that once sent the nation into panic are still with us, then why don't people mention them anymore?"

Well, it's partly because we have, as a species, the attention span of butterflies. We always chasing the new shiny or fearing the new Grim Reaper.

Go to YouTube and do a search for "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." and that summarizes my view of people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 03, 2020, 03:10:19 pm
Hi everyone,

If one thing is certain, it's the use of this virus as political fodder. God, the commercials are enough to make you cringe. All of these candidates are trying to use this to their advantage one way or the other.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Danielle Kristina on March 03, 2020, 03:39:29 pm
Hi everyone,

If one thing is certain, it's the use of this virus as political fodder. God, the commercials are enough to make you cringe. All of these candidates are trying to use this to their advantage one way or the other.

Lisa

Exactly!  That's a big reason I don't believe the hype about the Coronavirus or those other illnesses that send the masses into full-blown panic. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: KateR on March 03, 2020, 04:00:56 pm
I’m a bit nervous, but not enough to alter my life.  We are replacing some almost empty hand sanitizer bottles, and making sure hands get sanitized or washed very frequently.

Just heard a news story indicating that the fatality rate has stabilized at about .7% (less than 1%).  Older people, above 70, seem to have a much higher fatality rate.  Yes, .7% is a higher rate than the flu, but still very low compared to other things we vaccinate for.  Hopefully, this will help us to develop processes for creating vaccines faster than we do today.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 04, 2020, 07:32:17 am
Anyone else worried about this Coronavirus?

I'm getting a bit panicky since a new case showed up in my state today.

Lisa

My understanding is the risk is very low, unless you're close to someone who has come from the high risk areas.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 04, 2020, 07:33:40 am
And apparently according to pbs if your in Hawaii, buy massive quantities of toilet paper.  :o

????

What that supposed to do.  I thought the risk was at the other end.   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on March 05, 2020, 09:43:54 am
I don't think people are taking this as seriously as it deserves.

Just because previous scares didn't have much impact doesn't mean none of them will. The Spanish Flu of 1918 infected 27% of the population and killed somewhere between 17-100 million people. And lest we think medicine has advanced since then, large numbers of people getting ill at the same time will totally overwhelm hospitals ability to look after them. Apparently 1 in 5 people with the virus will require hospitalization.  Good luck with that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Whats happened so far in the USA (or Australia) is no indication of whats coming.

This is from 2 weeks ago, China has quarantine and travel restrictions for 780 million people.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html

I don't think they are doing it for fun, and it's certainly got nothing to do with USA politics. Its heavily damaging to China's economy. Good for air pollution though.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/04/811019032/why-chinas-air-has-been-cleaner-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak

This is the only thing that limits the virus right now, there's not going to be a vaccine for a long time. I can't see the USA doing that.

Japan has shut down the public school system, and their social system is far more suited for that kind of thing that we are.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/05/national/99-japan-elementary-schools-close-doors-coronavirus/

Its already affecting the trans community, in a small way

The Suporn Clinic in Thailand has just cancelled all further surgery for the rest of March and April. And who knows what they will do after that.

http://www.supornclinic.com/HTML/News/whatsnew.html

By the sound of it this is from the Thai government, so its going to apply to all medical tourism there.  I expect if things get bad all elective surgery will be cancelled everywhere.

China shutting down will have knock on effects on the global supply chain. India is one of the major worldwide drug manufacturers and has just restricted the export of a number of drugs. That could turn out badly for some, and get worse as the months go by.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51731719

I look at a forum where medical professionals from around the world post, and the tone among doctors there is very concerned.

There's endless more examples. I barely noticed the previous scares, but this one worries me.

Lets hope, but I don't think this is the same as before.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Heather A on March 05, 2020, 12:12:00 pm
I’m not terribly worried,  Last I read it’s about 2% of the people who catch it end up dying.  It does remind me of the bird flu and mad cow disease epidemic from years ago.  Right now I have a low chance to catch it, just try to wash my hands more frequently and not touch my face and I should be ok.

I’m more worried about people hoarding supplies.  When I went to Costco some of the overflow shelving was empty in a number of spots in the store.  Specifically water and non perishable food.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 07, 2020, 12:59:07 pm
Yes. Panic is more serious than the virus itself. The public responses may look insane, but the COVID-19 is extremely contagious. In a few years, most people in the earth will have antibodies to the virus after contracting and recovering from it with or without symptoms, before it kills a tiny fraction, but a huge number of people. Once more and more people become immune to the virus, it will no longer so much contagious.

Economic impacts are already massive and huge around the world. None of my friends has visited here from the mainland since the middle of February, making me stay mostly at home. Most restaurants here are empty. All of my schedules for meetings and trips were already canceled. I was to visit as an invited speaker Danang, Vietnam in late March, but the Vietnamese government-imposed travel restriction on all flights from S. Korea.

But I am actually glad that my winter vacation was extended by 2 weeks (and hopefully more later). My little daughter is happy as the beginning of school was postponed by 3 weeks (and hopefully more later). Tomorrow we are going to hike in nearby small mountains.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 07, 2020, 01:06:47 pm
I’m not terribly worried,  Last I read it’s about 2% of the people who catch it end up dying.

I guess it is actually less than 0.5% as the number of test increases, but the problem is that a huge number of people will be infected, making the death toll higher.

(https://i.insider.com/5e62892ffee23d347c732e45?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on March 07, 2020, 03:08:49 pm
It appears that it’s only so low at the moment because hospitals can still cope. Once they can’t it’s going to go through the roof.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 07, 2020, 06:12:54 pm
I am worried because my FFS is scheduled for late April, which will probably be just when the pandemic is getting bad. I think it is quite unlikely that I'll be able to go through with the surgery at that time, and it is also quite possible that I won't be able to travel to my surgeon.

My surgeon's office has been a little waffle-y about what happens to my deposit if I can't make it there because of travel restrictions. I think they're still trying to figure out what their policy is going to be. But my surgery is scheduled to be performed at an urban hospital and I can't imagine that they're going to be able to get an elective surgery done at a hospital at that time.

Moreover, I'm not even sure it's even going to be a good idea to get an elective surgery at that time. I certainly don't want to be in a position where my surgeon pushes me to go ahead, and if I don't feel comfortable about it, he'll bill me the full surgery fee...

Very frustrating...when I was thinking about what could go wrong with my transition timeline, I certainly did not put "pandemic" on the set of risk factors!  >:(

Oh yeah, I also don't want to die or have a severe respiratory disease. That would be bad, too. Don't joke about "only" a 1% death rate, or even a 0.1% rate for younger people. That is still a very deadly disease if tens of millions of people catch the virus. And even though I'm healthy, I'm pretty mindful that getting sick is going to be bad (although probably unavoidable at this point...).

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 08, 2020, 10:03:20 pm
This Virus is certainly going to toss a monkey wrench in the works for a bunch of us who are trying to push forward with our own timelines.

I get the feeling right around my B-Day in May, things are going to be really, really bad here in the states.

I'm hoping I can get stocked up a little on essentials and can hunker down and hide if need to be for a time. But at the end of the day, who pays the bills if we can't go to work? I don't think the Gov't has any clues on what to do about all these little issues?

This is a scary situation for everyone around the world. Yet the political leaders ain't taking it seriously enough.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Julielynn on March 08, 2020, 11:00:30 pm
From what I'm gathering from my friends (who are mostly doctors), it's well on it's way to infecting a lot of the USA.  The only real benefit in this country is there is a lot of open space so some places might never see it. 

Detroit seems to be locking down and supplying masks to doctors offices now.  At least they are trying, but expect it to get crazy for a bit. 

Personally, I'd say stock up on things that people are going to freak out on.  Toilet paper, toothpaste, the necessities.  Only reason being is too many might try to hoard and run the stores out, being a pain in the butt if you run out.   Aside from that, it's fairly expected to see it hit your area.   It may not kill everyone by any means, but it sounds like it knocks you into bed hard.    That alone is a reason things might get disrupted quite a bit.   I expect a bunch of people to try and hunker down to wait it out, which isn't going to work out real well.   It's here to play for a while.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 09, 2020, 11:42:44 am
Julielynn,

I'm afraid my area might well be overrun with this plague before too much longer. We've got 3 or 4 cases now. And who knows how many more on the way.

Our local Newspaper has an article on the latest case. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article240915536.html (https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/article240915536.html)

It's also important to stock up on any of the medications we take as part of our regiment. But who knows if we'll even have the strength to take them?

Being a pet owner, I'm also aware of the need to stock up on food, medicine, treats, toys, etc. If I get sick, I wonder if I will be able to even take em outside to poop?

I'm starting to think I'm getting anxiety over this ordeal. Yet I survived the SARS thing of 2003. One student in my school got it after coming home from a Church mission to China. That scared me a just a wee little bit.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: BrightWindow on March 09, 2020, 12:13:09 pm
I live in UK and have no concerns whatsoever about dying from the outbreak. I am a little concerned for my relatives who are older and/or have underlying health conditions but even so I don't think it's a huge risk. The panic caused might be a little inconvenient (shortages of goods for instance) but I am optimistic that on the large part my life and those of most of my friends and relatives will be largely unaffected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Pammie on March 09, 2020, 12:53:40 pm
I live in UK and have no concerns whatsoever about dying from the outbreak. I am a little concerned for my relatives who are older and/or have underlying health conditions but even so I don't think it's a huge risk. The panic caused might be a little inconvenient (shortages of goods for instance) but I am optimistic that on the large part my life and those of most of my friends and relatives will be largely unaffected.
I totally agree. The fatality rate for normal flu is actually higher and thousands have died from it this winter. I do despair at the way people panic.


I opened the door and the light shone in
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 09, 2020, 05:20:55 pm
I totally agree. The fatality rate for normal flu is actually higher and thousands have died from it this winter. I do despair at the way people panic.


I opened the door and the light shone in
My buddy, also a statistician, and I enjoy trading morbid jokes.

Today he pointed out that based on current evidence, where we live you're more likely to be killed by O. J. Simpson than by the coronavirus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 09, 2020, 06:39:14 pm
My buddy, also a statistician, and I enjoy trading morbid jokes.

Today he pointed out that based on current evidence, where we live you're more likely to be killed by O. J. Simpson than by the coronavirus.
Oh God, now I'm terrified South Korea probably has the best statistics since they are testing so many people. Not like the US where only the really sick get tested. As of a few days ago they had 0.6% death rate on thousands of cases. So it's not 2% like we originally thought, but still about 3 times worse than the usual annual flu. Not likely to take down any particular individual, but worth avoiding if you're in a higher risk category.

Of course the seasonal flu infects many thousands, so even though the mortality rate is lower, it kills many more overall.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 09, 2020, 07:07:44 pm
Oh God, now I'm terrified

Hey, look on the bright side - you got nothing to fear from O.J.!



Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 09, 2020, 08:35:39 pm
I was doing errands around town today (Maryland USA), doing normal things, and all I could think was, "4-6 weeks from now, everything is going to be completely disrupted." It is so weird to know that life is going to fundamentally change in a matter of weeks...and yet here we all are, generally acting as if everything is normal.

I really don't think most people understand how much the coronavirus will affect daily lives, but in the next couple of weeks, it's going to start to hit home. I think much of Europe and the urban USA is going to have to put in measures like what Italy has needed to do, simply because the hospitals are going to get overwhelmed - it's really hard for people to grasp the exponential effects of viral infections and how fast these things can become a crisis. It's weird to say this, but I think the cornoavirus might be undercovered in the news so far, but by necessity that's going to change.

Just not feeling great right now about things in society...a lot of people are going to die, and it's not going to be fun to witness. :(

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 09, 2020, 10:57:20 pm
I agree.

It's the calm before the storm.

What I was thinking about earlier is what happens if this Coronavirus is still here by summer and a major hurricane hits?

I get an uneasy feeling thinking about that scenario.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 09, 2020, 11:08:02 pm
A piece of good news. In S. Korea, the ratio of confirmed to tested number of people for COVID-19 has steadily decreased since Feb. 29, and today it is less than 2%. Hopefully, below 1% tomorrow.

Date   Confirmed Tested  Confirmed(+)  Tested(+)    Rate

2.28   2,022     70,940     427     12,950     3.30%

2.29   2,931     85,693     909     14,753     6.16%

3.1     3,526     96,985     595     11,292     5.27%

3.2    4,212     109,591     686     12,606     5.44%

3.3    4,812     125,851     600     16,260     3.69%

3.4    5,328     136,707     516     10,856     4.75%

3.5    5,766     146,541     438     9,834     4.45%

3.6    6,284     164,740     518     18,199     2.85%

3.7    6,767     178,189     483     13,449     3.59%

3.8    7,134     188,518     367     10,329     3.55%

3.9    7,382     196,618     248     8,100     3.06%

3.10  7,573     210,144     191    13,526     1.41%

I think it is now close to 'under control'.

Yes. The COVID-19 is extremely contagious, especially in any indoor space. The problem is not the fatality per se, but the huge number of people infected

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on March 10, 2020, 03:03:17 am
10% of patients require intensive care - oxygen for 2 weeks. Once there’s enough cases there will no longer be any ICU beds and that will turn into a 10% death rate. I believe there’s  another 5 to 10% that require hospitalisation on top of that.

There’s not many ICU  beds in any country, so while we’re  not there yet we will be unless government takes extreme action. I can’t say I have much confidence in the Australian government, but it could be worse I suppose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: VickyMI on March 10, 2020, 07:34:37 am
I am amazed at how people freak out about this and search for select data that fuels fear. 

The media also loves to sensationalize this story as it increases their viewership and web clicks which drives higher ad revenue.  It’s their business model.  The media loves hurricanes, snow storms, plane crashes, etc... 

60,000 people die EVERY year from the flu.  Over 90% of these deaths are people over 70 years old already weak with heart and or lung conditions or close to death from other ailments.

Don’t want to sound insensitive but we need to keep this virus in perspective.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 10, 2020, 07:51:09 am
Vicki:

The difference is that if the Coronavirus is allowed to spread uncontrollably, hospitals are going to quickly be overwhelmed, and when that happens, everyone’s health gets affected. We’ve seen that in Italy and China.  The doctors in northern Italy said the that the situation in their hospitals went from normal to unsustainable in one week - the environment can change that fast.

The only way to prevent that from happening is take major preventative steps to minimize social interaction. Every epidemiologist says that it’s not a matter of if but when significant changes in our daily living happen. If we take meaningful steps sooner, more extreme measures won’t be needed later.

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: randim on March 10, 2020, 08:45:26 am
I think the reality is there are many, many unknowns with this.  But it would be a mistake to be complacent because there have been other over-hyped diseases.  I can't see it being the Black Death.  Thirty percent of the population won't be wiped out.  But if the spread is as great as some fear, and the mortality rate as high as some fear, it could still be a fearsome death toll.  The Spanish Flu pandemic in the early 20th century killed 17 to 50 million people worldwide.  Doubt we are somehow immune from something like that happening again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 12, 2020, 07:51:51 am
One of NBA's stars, Rudy Golbert, touched all the mikes at the end of an interview to show that fear of the coronavirus is overhyped.

That activated karma and he tested positive.

Meanwhile, the NBA suspended its season.

That's hundreds of millions of dollars they'll lose.


Meanwhile, Italy has closed all commerce other than grocery stores and pharmacies.

That's hundreds of millions of euro.


When smart people leave money on the table in a dash for the door, there's something hunkered in the shadows.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Jessica on March 12, 2020, 10:23:51 am
I think most Americans are apathetic to almost anything.  They have to be slapped in the face hard for them to wake up. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 12, 2020, 10:49:42 am
One of NBA's stars, Rudy Golbert, touched all the mikes at the end of an interview to show that fear of the coronavirus is overhyped.

That activated karma and he tested positive.

Meanwhile, the NBA suspended its season.

That's hundreds of millions of dollars they'll lose.


Meanwhile, Italy has closed all commerce other than grocery stores and pharmacies.

That's hundreds of millions of euro.


When smart people leave money on the table in a dash for the door, there's something hunkered in the shadows.

That something hunkered in the shadows is the beast called fearmongering. I read the article about Rudy Gobert (not Golbert), and it included this:

For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia.

The vast majority of people recover from the new virus. According to the WHO, people with mild illness recover in about two weeks, while those with more severe illness may take three to six weeks to recover.


The concern seems to be merely that those who do suffer serious health issues with the virus have the potential to overwhelm critical care facilities.

However, the public belief (being fed by the media) is that everyone is going to come down with a case of diarrhea of biblical proportions.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 12, 2020, 11:38:09 am
"However, the public belief (being fed by the media) is that everyone is going to come down with a case of diarrhea of biblical proportions."

Where did you read this? Links, please.

I'm not allowed to post links, but arstechnical is running an article updated daily that concisely reports about the virus and it says that only 4% of those afflicted report diarrhea. The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%).

Meanwhile, they're digging mass graves in Iran that can be seen from space. Satellite images can be seen at the Washington Post. Maybe fearmongering killed those people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 12, 2020, 11:51:11 am
"However, the public belief (being fed by the media) is that everyone is going to come down with a case of diarrhea of biblical proportions."

Where did you read this? Links, please.

I'm not allowed to post links, but arstechnical is running an article updated daily that concisely reports about the virus and it says that only 4% of those afflicted report diarrhea. The most common symptoms are fever (88%) and dry cough (68%).

Meanwhile, they're digging mass graves in Iran that can be seen from space. Satellite images can be seen at the Washington Post. Maybe fearmongering killed those people.

LOL, I didn't read it, I'm inferring it from the fact that stores everywhere are out of toilet paper for some reason. Could be those mass graves in Iran are for the gay people they hang in public squares or throw off buildings?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 12, 2020, 12:35:19 pm
I guess a few leaders in the world consider the spread of the COVID-19 as a chance of solving the aging problem of the society by just letting them be immunized or decimated by nature.

(https://external-preview.redd.it/ZGdYbgbqVG1MUjOX7TUcaPqct8yQP35pOq9-9DIWqbE.jpg?auto=webp&s=3a1e5f7558e5de04d61d16fb692be85db0acdebe)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 12, 2020, 12:51:45 pm
LOL, I didn't read it, I'm inferring it from the fact that stores everywhere are out of toilet paper for some reason.

 :D :D :D
It was originated from a false rumor that toilet paper will be in shortage because the material of the facial mask is the same as toilet paper. Nowadays I do not wear any mask, but most people here wear it, making me think now mask becomes a kind of religious talisman or a global totem.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 12, 2020, 01:27:49 pm
I guess a few leaders in the world consider the spread of the COVID-19 as a chance of solving the aging problem of the society by just letting them be immunized or decimated by nature.

(https://external-preview.redd.it/ZGdYbgbqVG1MUjOX7TUcaPqct8yQP35pOq9-9DIWqbE.jpg?auto=webp&s=3a1e5f7558e5de04d61d16fb692be85db0acdebe)

barbie~~

Such thinking intrigues me. How will the coronavirus's impact ripple onward after the pandemic has subsided? For example, the Black Death reverberated through architecture, literature, and even the air once the plague had passed. Architecture became gloomier and more Gothic, as did literature, and glacial samples reveal that the air was cleaned of lead as lead smelting was greatly reduced by a reduced population. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: davina61 on March 12, 2020, 02:10:11 pm
Well the alert in the UK has been raised, jumping in a lot of cars a day hope I don't get it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on March 12, 2020, 03:50:18 pm
Am I worried? Yeah. But only so much.

I get vaccinated every year for flu. When I get sick at all, it's for maybe 72 hours, and my symptoms are immensely attenuated compared to the symptoms of full-blown flu.

I have never had a particularly strong immune system, and I'm sure that it has been further compromised by stress and a lack of exercise; I have so many chronic injuries now that I literally cannot exercise without messing up some part of my body. I don't worry so much about dying, but I worry that I will get sick and have to be hospitalized. As a trans person, I do not want to experience that.

We also don't have nearly as much information about this virus. We know quite a lot about influenza.

Influenza and other viruses mutate rapidly; I don't see much media discussion of this arc with COVID-19. A person can have the flu, recover, and then get hit by a new strain and get sick all over again. Heck, it happens all the time. The same can happen with this virus.

I also worry about my eighty-seven-year-old father. I have not seen him in decades, and he won't see me now, but we have corresponded by letter. My sister-in-law sent me a pic of him, and he is clearly becoming very frail. I honestly don't care what happens to my mother, but my dad is in a high-risk group. Some of my friends and former profs are over seventy or even over eighty; I do not want anything to happen to them. I mean, vaccines can protect them against other illnesses, but a COVID-19 vaccine is still pretty far off.

Finally, I worry that during a lockdown-style situation, I will run out of cat food or regular food or half and half for my coffee. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 12, 2020, 04:23:32 pm
I am not worried.  Maybe I should be?  I don't know. 

I never get the flu vaccine and never get the flu. My wife get's the flu vaccine annually (she does work at a hospital, but not in patient care) and has had the flu once.  I assume I just don't get exposed as much in my daily life.  I don't work retail or in a restaurant.  I don't come into face to face contact with very many people each week.

But, I am over 50 (though not yet 60).  If I get it, it will be harder on me than younger people.  I think I would have less than a 50:50 chance of catching it, and close to a 99% chance to survive it if I get it, but maybe it would only be a 97% chance.  Either way, it probably won't kill me.

It would likely kill my dad, and would certainly kill my father-in-law.   They both need to just stay at home for the next couple of months.  But, as for me, right now, allergies are messing with me pretty bad (obviously not life threatening, but much worse than my OTC medicines can compensate for).  So, the outages of tissue are annoying me.  I have enough for now.

If the worst thing that happens is that I run out of TP, that will be unpleasant, but...I'll make it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 12, 2020, 04:27:37 pm
I saw a really nice piece of advice: If you have elderly or sick parents or neighbors, go to the store for them, let them stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 12, 2020, 04:41:56 pm
Contemplating how a pandemic can reshape the world, the Black Death also made the climate colder, as millions of trees absorbed carbon dioxide on farms that were no longer worked because the farmers died. Again, I can't post links, but if you want to learn more, do a google search for "bbc Europe's chill linked to disease."
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 12, 2020, 08:58:13 pm
I'm in need of toilet paper and am in a grumpy mood over this Covd-19.

I like an HG Wells Quote,

“By the toll of a billion deaths man has bought his birthright of the earth, and it is his against all comers; it would still be his were the Martians ten times as mighty as they are. For neither do men live nor die in vain.”
― H.G. Wells, The War of the Worlds"

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MistressStevie on March 12, 2020, 09:45:07 pm
Right now in in the Pacific Northwest we now have many schools closed or closing, events over 250 people banned, business who never thought of remote work buying notebooks and sending employees home, and streets empty of traffic.       The travel bans are having devastating effects on any tourism related industry.  The hype about this virus is impacting everything.   How this plays out will be interesting and maybe not in good ways as the economic impacts will be felt for quite some time. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 12, 2020, 10:52:09 pm
Stevie,

Same here girl.

They are talking about calling out the Guard to setup areas of quarantine in my area. Trump is also talking of travel bans here in the US if need be.

The media and dumb political elite are hyping up and fueling this circus show.

There is now runs on all essentials. This now includes generators, gas, batteries, etc. People are preparing as if it was a major hurricane coming in.

This is becoming complete madness!

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 12, 2020, 11:45:29 pm
All day I've been hearing about the differences between how China, Korea, and Italy have chosen to address their coronavirus outbreaks. Analysts and journalists kept saying that the USA is mostly taking the Italian approach but doing it poorly.

At risk of fearmongering, I thought I'd share some links from today's Italian newspapers. Keep in mind that they had a handful of cases about 3 weeks ago.

<Link removed>

In hardest-hit Lombardy, which is the province in NW Italy that contains Milan:

 - 8,725 have tested positive (up 1,445 from yesterday)

- 744 are dead (up 127)

- 605 are in intensive care (up 45)

<Link removed>

The head of the coronavirus commission asks that everyone keep a physical distance away from their family members. "I understand that we tend to let down our guard among family, but it's in everyone's best Interests."
The head of emergency medicine of a hospital in Bergamo: "Every afternoon, when fevers spike, it's like an earthquake. 60-80 people arrive all at once, all in serious condition, all up until then healthy and strong. If we don't immediately get more doctors, nurses, and beds, we can't hold out much longer."



And here are some cool dashboards of the disease's progress:

<Link removed>

So... yeah.

I personally doubt that I'm liable to catch the virus, or even to get very ill if I do (knock wood), but I do worry about the disruption. That's nobody's friend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 13, 2020, 12:20:20 am
Such thinking intrigues me. How will the coronavirus's impact ripple onward after the pandemic has subsided? For example, the Black Death reverberated through architecture, literature, and even the air once the plague had passed. Architecture became gloomier and more Gothic, as did literature, and glacial samples reveal that the air was cleaned of lead as lead smelting was greatly reduced by a reduced population.

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the inability to understand the exponential function.
--Al Bartlett

The estimated value of the basic reproduction number (R0:  the expected number of cases directly generated by one case) of COVID-19 is 2.3 while that of flu is 1.3. Just a difference of 1, but the implication is huge. In a week, many Americans will be surprised at the speed of infection. It has happened in China, here in S. Korea and Italy, and you will see more within just a week.
            < moderator note:  "possible paywall" in Linked site below>
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/10/coronavirus-what-matters-isnt-what-you-can-see-what-you-cant/

The fatality rate will be certainly higher than 1%. In the case of S. Korea, the value of 0.7% was greatly underestimated because most of the tested cases were from a cultish religion group who are mostly young people at their 20s. As it spreads equally to aged people, it will become higher and higher.

I don't know what will happen in N. America. But, I guess the main weakness of the U.S would be the lack of universal health care in fighting against the extremely contagious virus.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 02:31:17 am
This may or may not open for you, but here's a broad NYT article on the situation in Italy

NYTimes: Italy’s Health Care System Groans Under Coronavirus


I think the key here is to point out that Italy only recognized the size of the outbreak because the Lombard public health system ignored national recommendations and started testing everyone, not just the very ill. Other provinces actually complained because they thought it made things look bad.

I believe this is what Tony Fauci is talking about when he says things are going to get worse in the USA. The absence of data is hampering a true assessment of the scale of the outbreak, so there's no real way to predict whether or when things will get out of hand. Prudence dictates preparing for the worst and praying for the best.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 13, 2020, 08:05:44 am
This may or may not open for you, but here's a broad NYT article on the situation in Italy

NYTimes: Italy’s Health Care System Groans Under Coronavirus

I think the key here is to point out that Italy only recognized the size of the outbreak because the Lombard public health system ignored national recommendations and started testing everyone, not just the very ill. Other provinces actually complained because they thought it made things look bad.

I believe this is what Tony Fauci is talking about when he says things are going to get worse in the USA. The absence of data is hampering a true assessment of the scale of the outbreak, so there's no real way to predict whether or when things will get out of hand. Prudence dictates preparing for the worst and praying for the best.

I'm bracing for the worst and I've feared the worst all along. This will be a demographic changer and world changer. I expect there will be millions less of us in a few weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 02:00:55 pm
I'm bracing for the worst and I've feared the worst all along. This will be a demographic changer and world changer. I expect there will be millions less of us in a few weeks.

Goodness, let's hope not! And don't worry, it won't happen, at least not in the USA.

I'll preface this by saying I'm writing from the perspective of a U.S. citizen living in the USA.

Right now Johns Hopkins's models are predicting a wide range of deaths in this country because the scope of testing has been so hamstrung. I can't find the citation, but I read in the Post this morning that their models predict best case around 635,000 and worst case around 1,350,000.

I wish I could find the actual model itself so I could dig into it because journalists aren't very good at reporting numbers. After all, if the model says there's a 95% chance of less than 650,000 and a .00001% chance of 1 million or more, that puts a different spin on things, doesn't it? Still grim, but better than the article implies.

Bear in mind, too, that these are only models, and their predictions are only as good as the data they currently have, which isn't very good. My own suspicion (being a data gal) is that the predictions will go down as the total number of positive tests increases (because almost everyone who gets the virus survives), and the predictions will go up when a bunch of positive tests happen all at once (because there aren't enough hospital beds to handle surges).

That's why mitigation is so important right now. Prevent those surges. Wash your hands. Get in between your fingers. Don't forget your thumbs and wrists. Cough and sneeze into your elbows. Scratch your face with your sleeve if you must. Wipe down your countertops. Maintain social distancing.

If you want to see why surge prevention is so important, go look at the experiences of St. Louis and Philadelphia in 1918 during the Spanish Flu pandemic. None of the combatants during the Great War were willing to admit that the flu was ravaging their troops, so they suppressed reporting on it. Spain was neutral during the war, so they didn't suppress reporting as the killer virus roared through the nation (that's why it ended up being called the "Spanish" flu).

The flu had broken out in the States by the time troops were returning. Everyone knew it was here. The military knew that soldiers were infected. Philadelphia took preventative measures and by and large shut down the city to introduce social distancing. But St. Louis held a victory parade - masses turned out to welcome the boys home.

You can find graphs online of deaths from the flu in those two cities. They spiked high and early in St. Louis. Its hospitals were overwhelmed. Doctors moved into triage mode. They saved who they could. They wrote off who they couldn't. That's what's going on in Italy today.

Philadelphia also bore its share of deaths, but the infected arrived for treatment at a slower pace. Hospitals handled it. Overall death rates were much lower because the medical system wasn't awash with victims coming in all at the same time. That's why the USA must work to prevent the surges as best we can, right now and right quick.

In several ways the USA is worse-off than Italy. Italy has 3.2 hospital beds per thousand. The USA has 2.8. Getting Italians to follow rules is a dicey proposition at best, but Americans, with our strongly ingrained culture of personal liberty, are all too likely to defy the government on general principles. Sniping between the two parties when we're all in this together doesn't help. That people get their news from social media instead of responsible sources may be the worst problem of all.

I personally was disheartened by the President's speech the other day in its several references to the virus being from abroad. Others in his party have been trying to do the same thing. A virus knows no nation. Xenophobia is always dumb. Blocking travel protects the other guys, not us. For us it's like locking the barn door after the horse trampled you on its way out. Casting a virus in terms of The Other is useless. AIDS was not a Gay Plague. Viruses don't discriminate on minority status, but they do discriminate on behaviors.

So once again: Prevent those surges. Wash your hands. Get in between your fingers. Don't forget your thumbs and wrists. Cough and sneeze into your elbows. Scratch your face with your sleeve if you must. Wipe down your countertops. Maintain social distancing.

Help give Meemaw a fighting chance.

She just might could end up being around to thank you for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 13, 2020, 02:27:29 pm
Great post, Battle Goddess. I've done a ton of reading the last few weeks about the coronavirus, but you cast light on some of my remaining shadows.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sophiaprincess2019 on March 13, 2020, 02:49:05 pm
2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly

61 million
people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths.

2020: Coronavirus:  67,724 active cases  5,397 deaths GLOBALLY

1875 active US cases and 41 confirmed deaths.

Me:  Not worried

If you fall for the hype you're likely to fall for anything.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 13, 2020, 03:09:41 pm
2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly

61 million
people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths.

2020: Coronavirus:  67,724 active cases  5,397 deaths GLOBALLY

1875 active US cases and 41 confirmed deaths.

Me:  Not worried

If you fall for the hype you're likely to fall for anything.

Great, I’m glad you’re not worried - you’re relatively young.

The thing is, my mom is not very young, and I don’t want her to die. So please be a good citizen and follow steps to minimize social interaction so we can keep the pandemic under control and have enough capacity to care for all those who do get sick.

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 13, 2020, 03:31:07 pm
2009: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that swine flu infected nearly

61 million
people in the United States and caused 12,469 deaths.

2020: Coronavirus:  67,724 active cases  5,397 deaths GLOBALLY

1875 active US cases and 41 confirmed deaths.

Me:  Not worried

If you fall for the hype you're likely to fall for anything.

The coronavirus is just getting started and exponential growth is underway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 03:51:22 pm
Great post, Battle Goddess. I've done a ton of reading the last few weeks about the coronavirus, but you cast light on some of my remaining shadows.

Thanks!

I forgot to mention one very important point about prevention, and that's overall personal risk minimization. We gotta do it as much as we can. Communicate more by phone and electronically and less in-person. Work from home.  Stay home in general. Ain't perfect, but it's the least we can do.

Here's a statement from William Hanage at Harvard's Chan School of Public Health:

"I want to be absolutely clear: Working from home is not guaranteed to stop you from getting the virus. It won’t. But it’s not about you. If you can work from home, it will delay your getting the virus. And that is a small but heroic act.”

That's an important point: we all can get the virus. You can, I can, we all can.

However, we can be heroes by minimizing our own personal risk of catching the virus and thus minimizing our chances of contributing to a surge.

We can be heroes by helping out the folks who mustn't go out because they're elderly or immunocompromised. Check in on them. Go to the grocery store for them. Give them a call so they don't feel scared and lonely.

We can be heroes and stop trying to upset ourselves. Don't get your news from social media. It's inevitably <not allowed>. If you see anything online that outrages you, don't believe a word - my profession is to write that stuff to upset you so much that you click on it. Stay away from biased sources like CNN and Fox. They just want to get you worked up, too.

If you want to panic, you can for all the good it'll do you, but it makes things worse for everyone else, so knock it off. We're all in this together.

If you want to be anxious, go ahead for all the good it'll do you; sometimes that's a person's coping skill. Doesn't help me any, but you do you. Just remember that we're all in this together, you're not alone, and there's plenty of folks you can talk it out with. Don't just sit there and stew. 

Coronavirus isn't the Spanish Flu, it isn't the Black Death, it isn't the Antonine Plague. It's just a thing. Tony Fauci says these things usually pass in a number of weeks and that with luck and work we might keep it under 12.  That's a pain in the keister but not a catastrophe.

I'm not looking forward to all this. My household is taking it seriously. I have an elderly parent who we can't visit until this all blows over. We've developed a protocol for quarantining things that come into the house to the extent we can. We're washing hands lots and lots, and we don't sit together. It's a drag, but it is what it is.

It's a drag, but it is what it is. It's a drag, not a catastrophe. We can all play our part by taking concrete steps to lower our own infection risk and our chances of infecting anyone else. It's our duty to us all. Just relax and do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 13, 2020, 06:46:48 pm
(https://i.redd.it/apxxmlc4kfm41.jpg)
As today (3/13), the number is 2,030 in the U.S.

Here in S. Korea, the ratio of infection has been steadily decreasing, making me a little bit relieved. Of course, I do not worry about my health. My major concern is the economic downfall.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49655575932_7c3978d03f_o.png)

I am ready to eat wild plants and catch fish, even some wild insects. I see a lot of deer this season, and some entering my private property, which would be nice emergency food, together with the visiting wild pheasants.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 07:06:06 pm
Well, I may stand corrected.

I'm told that I can't post a link to it, but the Times somehow got a peek at the CDC's mortality models from a couple weeks ago. They're in the range of the Hopkins models I cited above.

What I did apparently get wrong was the risk of getting infected in the first place. That seems to be very high indeed.

One CDC scenario predicted 160 to 214 million infections in the USA. The US population is about 330 million, so that prediction says half to two thirds of us could catch the bug.

Like I said earlier, models are only educated guesses, and these were built two weeks ago on even less information than the crummy data we have today, but I don't care if they were off by half. That's still a lot of people.

The CDC's scenarios also predicted a ridiculously wide range of best case/worst case coronavirus hospitalizations: anywhere from 2.4m to 21m. Thing is, according to the AHA, there's only 924,000 staffed beds and 98,000 ICU beds in the whole system, and lots of them are in use at the moment. It's still flu season.

You see my point about needing to slow the surge?

So it seems we all may very well have a fair chance of contracting the virus. Many of us will never even know it. Some of us will get sick but recover easily. A few of us will need hospitalization, and that's where the trouble begins.

Wash your darn hands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 13, 2020, 07:36:34 pm
Thanks for the coaching, Battle Goddess.

Off-topic, do you write Internet headlines? I'm a writer too, but I suck at headlines, which I know because my editors often change mine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 09:55:03 pm
Thanks for the coaching, Battle Goddess.

Off-topic, do you write Internet headlines?

Naw, I'm just a garden-variety curmudgeon. Wish it paid better.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2020, 10:36:57 pm
(https://i.redd.it/apxxmlc4kfm41.jpg)
As today (3/13), the number is 2,030 in the U.S.


barbie~~

Barbie, your spreadsheet scares the bejabbers out of me.

Reason being, Italy only has 60 million people. The USA has 330 million. There's a cap on how many Italians can get the virus, and it's way lower than the USA's.

Seems to me that a more telling statistic would be to match the percentage of the two countries' populations infected, not the absolute number of infections in the two countries. The USA has five times as many people and might well ought to expect somewhere near five times as many infections.

That'd imply that we in the USA are even earlier in the beginning of our outbreak than Barbie's spreadsheet suggests.

I hat data sometimes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 14, 2020, 05:49:25 am
We’re not that much earlier in the outbreak. We simply haven’t been testing sufficiently. In the coming days as testing ramps up quickly in the US, you are going to see the numbers in the US explode. The true number of infections in the US is probably 5-10x the current official number.

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on March 14, 2020, 06:18:22 am
The American College of Surgeons has just reccomended that all elective surgeries be cancelled.

https://www.facs.org/about-acs/covid-19/information-for-surgeons

There have been reports of trans surgeries around the world being cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 14, 2020, 06:34:13 am
The American College of Surgeons has just reccomended that all elective surgeries be cancelled.

https://www.facs.org/about-acs/covid-19/information-for-surgeons

There have been reports of trans surgeries around the world being cancelled.

Yep - I knew this was coming (see my signature). My FFS surgeon’s office was living the fantasy that they would be able to do the surgery in late April. Um, no.

It’s not a huge deal for me because FFS isn’t emotionally critical. But if my SRS gets moved, I would be crushed. I think with a January 2021 date, I’m safe (I hope...).

Of course the net impact of this is going to be that surgery wait list times are going to go through the roof. Huge bummer for the trans community.

Sarah

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 07:30:01 am
We’re not that much earlier in the outbreak. We simply haven’t been testing sufficiently. In the coming days as testing ramps up quickly in the US, you are going to see the numbers in the US explode. The true number of infections in the US is probably 5-10x the current official number.

Sarah

Two days ago, the Ohio Department of Health estimated that 100,000 Ohioans are already infected.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 07:32:46 am
Yep - I knew this was coming (see my signature). My FFS surgeon’s office was living the fantasy that they would be able to do the surgery in late April. Um, no.

It’s not a huge deal for me because FFS isn’t emotionally critical. But if my SRS gets moved, I would be crushed. I think with a January 2021 date, I’m safe (I hope...).

Of course the net impact of this is going to be that surgery wait list times are going to go through the roof. Huge bummer for the trans community.

Sarah

I hate to be a bummer, but if it's like other viruses, it'll subside this summer and return next fall and winter.

C'mon vaccines! I did read that Gilead Sciences has an anti-viral that might be effective against the coronavirus and that's been in their pipeline a long time and is already moving into the testing phase.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 14, 2020, 07:47:08 am
We’re not that much earlier in the outbreak. We simply haven’t been testing sufficiently. In the coming days as testing ramps up quickly in the US, you are going to see the numbers in the US explode. The true number of infections in the US is probably 5-10x the current official number.

Sarah
Fair point.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 14, 2020, 07:59:29 am
I hate to be a bummer, but if it's like other viruses, it'll subside this summer and return next fall and winter.

C'mon vaccines! I did read that Gilead Sciences has an anti-viral that might be effective against the coronavirus and that's been in their pipeline a long time and is already moving into the testing phase.

I think that’s way too pessimistic. We’re going to have a hospital surge but it will probably be “only” be for 3-4 months. Once we get through the initial tidal wave, the demand for service is going to go back to close to normal levels and there will be spare capacity. I expect elective surgeries in out-of-hospital surgery centers will be coming back in no later than a month or two. In-hospital surgeries probably at some point during the summer. There will be some pickup next winter, but I think it’ll be manageable. And while there probably won’t be a vaccine by then, it is quite possible that an effective anti-viral treatment will have been found that reduces the nastiest of the symptoms and keeps elderly people’s lung functioning at a manageable level.

Unfortunately, that small amount of time is going to create a huge backlog for trans surgeries.

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 14, 2020, 08:07:35 am
Staying home if sick and being away from crowds make sense, hoarding does not.  Get just what you need for two weeks, no more.  Wash hands frequently.

I will miss some of the activities that have been canceled or postponed.  I will miss my Masters golf for sure.

Look for the plus side... the canceled events makes time for other things.

Pray for those ill and undergoing economic and child care hardships.  Volunteer if you can.

Hugs,  :)

Chrissy


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Tess100 on March 14, 2020, 08:54:26 am
Hi Crissy,
Nicely stated. I agree, this isn't the end of the world for the majority. It is frightening for most and clearly a hardship for some.  I have no doubt we will get through this and hopefully the USA we use this as a springboard to finally start building a healthcare system for all. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 14, 2020, 01:21:46 pm
A note for all: both the Times and the Post say they're making their coverage of the coronavirus free to anyone.

Not sure what you have to do because I already have subscriptions, but if you're interested...

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 01:34:30 pm
A note for all: both the Times and the Post say they're making their coverage of the coronavirus free to anyone.

Not sure what you have to do because I already have subscriptions, but if you're interested...

Vanity Fair has done the same. Like you, BG, I already have Times and WaPo subscriptions too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 14, 2020, 01:38:49 pm
Vanity Fair has done the same. Like you, BG, I already have Times and WaPo subscriptions too.
You'd figure the WSJ would, too, but I don't think they've notified me of it yet. I'll let everyone know if they do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 14, 2020, 02:02:42 pm
Seems to me that a more telling statistic would be to match the percentage of the two countries' populations infected, not the absolute number of infections in the two countries. The USA has five times as many people and might well ought to expect somewhere near five times as many infections.

Yes. I agree. But because of the nature of the exponential increase, a 10x difference can be offset by a week as it increases 2x by every 2-3 days.     <edit - Link not allowed>

And thanks for providing detailed situations in Italy where I wish to visit soon. Here in S. Korea, people now seem to be a little bit relieved, getting out to enjoy the spring.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 14, 2020, 02:48:58 pm

And thanks for providing detailed situations in Italy where I wish to visit soon. Here in S. Korea, people now seem to be a little bit relieved, getting out to enjoy the spring.

barbie~~


I think you'll enjoy Italy famously, but right now with the shutdown you need a special permission slip to show the police if you even want to leave town!

I was mentioning to someone else how sad the situation in Italy makes me. While the extent of the contagion is barely well-understood in the wealthy North, it's beginning to spread to the poverty-stricken South, and that's where true hell will be unleashed. Poor sanitation, crowded living quarters, close family ties, a culture of physical contact, corrupt administration, and shabby medical care. I predict widespread misery and coverups.

People over there are starting to call the coronavirus "rabbia," which literally means "rabies" but can also be a term for "plague."

(Don't worry - your pasta arrabiata isn't "plague pasta." Arrabiato can also mean "enraged," like a dog gets when the poor thing has rabies. Instead, your pasta sauce is just slapping your tongue around a little bit. )

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 03:29:36 pm
BG, I think of those Italian towns that are so desperate for residents that they'll give you a house for a buck if you promise to live there. In the future, they might be paying people to live there as they lose even more residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 14, 2020, 04:03:29 pm
BG, I think of those Italian towns that are so desperate for residents that they'll give you a house for a buck if you promise to live there. In the future, they might be paying people to live there as they lose even more residents.
Don't think for a moment I haven't been tempted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 04:13:57 pm
Don't think for a moment I haven't been tempted.

Me too!

However, when my spouse dies, I'll sell our beautiful coastal home and buy something plainplainplain on the edge of the wilderness. I'll spend summers there and winters in places like Italy or some Caribbean island. In short, I'll live small and travel far, but always near water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 14, 2020, 04:34:40 pm
Me too!

However, when my spouse dies, I'll sell our beautiful coastal home and buy something plainplainplain on the edge of the wilderness. I'll spend summers there and winters in places like Italy or some Caribbean island. In short, I'll live small and travel far, but always near water.


Water can be very soothing.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 14, 2020, 04:42:39 pm

Water can be very soothing.

Chrissy

Amen, sister, amen. My favorite place, Chrissy, is a wilderness lake with just me and the wolves and eagles. I can literally sit and witness for hours, weeks, and months.
Title: I plan to do my part.
Post by: Jennifer300 on March 14, 2020, 07:49:35 pm
The goal is to try to not spread it too fast.  If it spreads quickly, the hospitals cannot handle the volume all at once.  I plan to do everything I can to try to keep from catching it and passing it on.  I am healthy and likely be one of those who get through it fine, but I don't want to pass it to someone who may not be as healthy.  You don't even have symptoms for a long time and can be passing it to others even before you show symptoms.  I will follow all the rules, washing hands often, wiping down surfaces of things I use in public like grocery carts.  I will buy enough things to shelter in place for a short duration but not a ridiculous amount as to short other people from being able to get the things they need.  One lady at the grocery store was buying 3 lb tubes of ground beef.  I watched her clean out every one, about 15 of them.  She also cleaned out every single bag of chicken wings.  I didn't need either, but that is the kind of actions that will cause others more hardship than if they just took what they needed to stay home a few weeks.   I don't even want to talk about the Toilet Paper shortage of 2020 due to panic purchasing.   
    I have faith we will get through this just fine,  and am not going out of my way to prepare for any end of the world scenario's.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 14, 2020, 08:12:52 pm
(Don't worry - your pasta arrabiata isn't "plague pasta." Arrabiato can also mean "enraged," like a dog gets when the poor thing has rabies. Instead, your pasta sauce is just slapping your tongue around a little bit. )

My wife likes to make Lasagna which my kids like. I enjoy it only with red wine. I do not like pizza so much but did like home-made white Italian pizza. But above all, any Italian dish with marine food is the best for me.

I suddenly realized that I actually was once in Italy about 7 years ago. I went to Venice by bus for a one-day trip from Slovenia. But it was anyway a kind of island. I wish to visit the mainland within a few years.

I just heard that the number of infections exploded again today by 20%, 3,497 news cases. I hope to see some mitigation within a few days.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49660314441_a7f340f27d_b.jpg)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 15, 2020, 01:01:27 am
My wife likes to make Lasagna which my kids like. I enjoy it only with red wine. I do not like pizza so much but did like home-made white Italian pizza. But above all, any Italian dish with marine food is the best for me.

I suddenly realized that I actually was once in Italy about 7 years ago. I went to Venice by bus for a one-day trip from Slovenia. But it was anyway a kind of island. I wish to visit the mainland within a few years.

I just heard that the number of infections exploded again today by 20%, 3,497 news cases. I hope to see some mitigation within a few days.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49660314441_a7f340f27d_b.jpg)

barbie~~

It's a wonderful relief to see those numbers headed downward in China and South Korea. Gives a person hope.

I once did the opposite of your trip. Went to Portoroz from Venice. The fighting was pretty well over, so I got to enjoy the local restaurants. Amazing food!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on March 15, 2020, 08:41:23 am
It's difficult to determine the exact status of the corona right now in terms of virulence (although at least 3 x higher than regular influenza) and mortality because the infection can be asymptomatic for up to a month (likely this was already a full pandemic before we even heard about it in Western media; China apparently deliberately under reported for 1-2 months prior to this); so the figures we have are "in waiting", while the number of suspected/infections is caught up with the number of fatalities to determine the deadliness of the disease.

Almost certainly the numbers of infected we are seeing are way off and there are far more people that have contracted it in general, plus those who are asymptomatic, versus the numbers who have been confirmed or died from it because the testing kits and procedures have been defective or poorly adopted in many countries thus far, and the demand for kits has often been outstripped. So the estimate of the "deadliness" of this virus could be way off too. I'm thinking the fatality % to be lower and the number of true infected persons much higher than we have current knowledge of.

Either way it disproportionately affects older people, particularly those 60 and over apparently, or those with underlying medical issues or weak immunity issues. The main problem of corona as opposed to the flu is the sudden case explosion and shortage of medical facilities in mass case scenarios, as well as most countries being woefully unprepared for the event.

The mass panic we are seeing in terms of hoarding is not unexpected; I began stocking up on meds and food back in January when the first Wuhan lockdowns were underway... as I suspected the Chinese authorities would not be able to contain this one (just watching the behavior of the authorities there told me this one was "something special"). But I always have at least 2 months' supplies on hand in the house regardless, due to my out-of-the-way location. Now we are seeing the general populace begin to panic-buy goods; panic and irresponsible actions are likely to cause just as much danger as the disease itself. The public hasn't been informed at all of how to deal with such a scenario - they're even panic buying the wrong goods quite often like milk, perishable meat and toilet paper.

People would be better off if they have not prepared to avoid the daytime crowding in supermarkets by going early in the morning or in the night to avoid as much contact with many people as possible. Purchase non-perishable canned goods, rice, pasta and cereals that can last a while should there be any prolonged delays getting food to your area. Medicines like paracetamol and flu medication might also help, but will not do much more than help with the symptoms. There's a possibility of reinfection even if you recover from the virus so limiting contact with masses of people or infected friends and family is a good idea. Wash hands often with soap as a matter of course, buy sanitizer if you want, but you can easily make your own hand sanitizer with a bottle of isopropyl alcohol and some cloth wipes, or isopropyl and aloe vera hand gel if you have not got any and don't want to be gouged by someone selling it at 10 x its normal price. Avoid touching your face or letting others touch it, try to keep distance between you and the public, wear masks if you want to out in public etc. etc. but the chances of being in proximity to corona is high regardless unless you live off grid/fairly isolated. Personally I would avoid hospitals unless you have it and really need tubing and oxygen; most people apparently recover without needing assistance but there will something like 10% of infected that might well require oxygen.

Other than that it's a matter of time to wait this one out; a pandemic is of course a question of when, not if, and there will be others in future without a doubt; the ease and speed of travel in the world today makes it a certainty and corona has showed us just how easily this can happen with a virulent infection. We were, in a sense long overdue for an event of this nature to occur, statistically speaking.

The symptoms apparently are fever, headaches, and mild flu like symptoms initially, followed by a remission and then the virus usually manifests in the lungs, leading to bacterial infection mild pneumonia. I have heard from one or two people who believe they had corona recently and got through it by drinking hot teas, steam inhalation, flu meds, decongestant rubs and so on to keep the mucus loose enough in the lungs to be coughed up. These people apparently didn't need to visit hospital (lucky them). It sounds very unpleasant, much like a regular flu but with lung complications.

I expect there can be no wider containment and this is the stage in which government attempt to delay the spread while they set up medical contingencies. Eventually most people will be exposed in some way to it and some natural immunity can be gained within the population. Unless they can come up with some vaccinations.

 

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Heather A on March 15, 2020, 02:58:30 pm
I think I have said it before, but I'm not terribly worried about the Cornavirus itself.  I don't have a ton of human contact right now most of the recommendations they are giving is stuff I have already been doing for the last few years.  I just try to wash my hands more often now, and try not to touch my face when out and about.  I know I still have a good chance of getting either the corona virus or some other bug that is going around at some point of time, it seems to happen every year.

I'm actually more worried about the mass panic we are seeing now, plus people hoarding needed supplies.  I remember when Hurricane Katrina happened people started panic buying goods.  Ever since then I did buy some long term survival food just in case it won't last forever but it will get me through a short term supply disruption.  I wouldn't count anything I have purchased as hoarding since its all stuff I use I'm just buying a few extra days worth of food and water.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 15, 2020, 04:58:03 pm
Now the daily number of cases in the US is exceeding Italy.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49663704211_c7ff1448b4_b.jpg)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 15, 2020, 05:12:56 pm
Talk about hitting home: ye plague is ycomme.

My kid's college shut down this past week, as have so many others. Kid feels fine, thank goodness, and is driving home with a buddy. A lot of kids from our town go to this school.

Including one poor kid who caught the bug. And this kid just happens to have lived in my kid's dorm.

Merciful heavens.

We'll contact our kid's doctor tomorrow to find out whether a test is worthwhile. I rather suspect it won't be, but more information is typically better than less.

It sure is easy to talk about the virus in general and to implement sensible protective protocols for oneself and for one's own home. My wife and I are both scientists. We listen to Fauci. We're up on the CDC. We practice information hygiene by tuning out unreliable, irresponsible, and irrelevant sources.

When it came to designing the protocols for our house, we thought things through together, talked it out logically, made contingency trees and assessed failure points. We really are minimizing our risk as best as we can figure out. Matter of fact, we just now had a discussion about adding a new procedure, evaluated several modes of implementing it, and concluded that none could feasibly provide any useful incremental benefit, so we rejected the addition.

Feels right different when Daddy's Little Girl comes into the picture. The teeth clench. Fists curl. Latin flees; Saxon rumbles.

I bend toward wrath. One of my flaws, I guess. Fifth-circle bound. Here comes a foe I cannot strike or frighten away, and boy howdy, does Papa Wolf howl in his chains.

Seems there are other reactions to the bug than fear or anxiety, huh? Only smart way to approach this thing is to treat it like a thing, because it's only a thing, and things can be managed.

But dammit, this thing is making me mad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Janes Groove on March 15, 2020, 05:28:20 pm
Walmart was pretty grim today. No bread, no milk, no pasta, no beans, no rice.  The Pharmacy, Health & Beauty section - soap, toothpaste, aspirin, cold medicine was basically wiped out.  There were 4 Walmart employees standing around a pallet of toilet paper handing them out individually.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 16, 2020, 02:27:27 am
As here we have experienced so many emergencies, people seldom become panic to stockpile. But I guess panic buying at least can boost the local economy during this recession period.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMZ_9CTvb60

I have just returned from a 2-day trip to the mainland. Airports are becoming more crowded every day, and the newspaper says the number of tourists visiting my residential area, an island, will increase substantially next week.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 16, 2020, 11:05:13 am
Walmart was pretty grim today. No bread, no milk, no pasta, no beans, no rice.  The Pharmacy, Health & Beauty section - soap, toothpaste, aspirin, cold medicine was basically wiped out.  There were 4 Walmart employees standing around a pallet of toilet paper handing them out individually.

Same here sister.

I'm feeling down already from this virus.

I like going out clothes shopping and haven't for almost a month.

Spring is here and I want to find some new outfits. I'm not much for ordering online, I like to try things on and buy what fits and looks good without the hassle of waiting for things to go through the postal system.

Friend sent me a message last night saying people are sending #BoomerRemover on social media. That's pretty disrespectful and down right mean.

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 16, 2020, 11:22:13 am
Same here sister.

I'm feeling down already from this virus.

I like going out clothes shopping and haven't for almost a month.

Spring is here and I want to find some new outfits. I'm not much for ordering online, I like to try things on and buy what fits and looks good without the hassle of waiting for things to go through the postal system.

Friend sent me a message last night saying people are sending #BoomerRemover on social media. That's pretty disrespectful and down right mean.

Lisa

#BoomerRemover is a manifestation of the rightful rage that many Millennials have toward my generation. We've borrowed trillions and are leaving them the debt. We've reset the Earth's thermostat and are ducking out before it gets too hot. I understand their rage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: BrightWindow on March 16, 2020, 12:58:23 pm
#BoomerRemover is a manifestation of the rightful rage that many Millennials have toward my generation. We've borrowed trillions and are leaving them the debt. We've reset the Earth's thermostat and are ducking out before it gets too hot. I understand their rage.
Personally I wouldn't be motivated to direct rage towards older people collectively. Within any group of people there's going to be a huge range of decisions they make and why they made those choices. Hate will only spark hate, and I especially believe that when people aren't given individual consideration.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on March 16, 2020, 01:37:29 pm
People are going to comment on this worldwide event and some are not going to be nice.

Boomer generation is being viewed by some as the cause of many problems - social (values) degeneration, housing extortion, debt culture and so on. The real situation is obviously far more nuanced and what you are seeing are soundbites and condensed sentiments. There is going to be a lot of jokes, snarks, and gallows humour as well as wellwishes and prayers. That's just the internet and our species in general.

But this is a big event involving practically every global people and population. All kinds of things will be said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 16, 2020, 01:48:30 pm
Quote
All kinds of things will be said.

And all kinds of scams

FFRF Urges Arizona AG to stop Paula White event claiming coronavirus “cure”
https://ffrf.org/news/news-releases/item/37241-passover-2020-decade-of-awakening (https://ffrf.org/news/news-releases/item/37241-passover-2020-decade-of-awakening)

NY, Missouri attorneys general order companies to stop promoting alleged coronavirus cures

https://abcnews.go.com/US/ny-attorney-general-orders-televangelist-jim-bakker-stop/story?id=69472032 (https://abcnews.go.com/US/ny-attorney-general-orders-televangelist-jim-bakker-stop/story?id=69472032)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 16, 2020, 01:56:11 pm
You have an expansive view, Paul, and a beguiling mind.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 16, 2020, 01:57:56 pm
This from the Sueddeutsche Zeitung, which is the big newspaper of southern Germany. Germany is just now going into its shutdown.

Here's part of the plan for Bavaria, in southeastern Germany. Bavaria's relationship to the rest of Germany is sort of like New Orleans's relationship to the rest of the United States: sure, it's attached to Germany, but it maintains its own very distinct and colorful cultural and political style.

"Von Dienstag an müssen alle Freizeiteinrichtungen in Bayern schließen. Also zum [lots of businesses], ... Bars, ... [lots more]. Diese Anweisung gilt bis zum 19. April"

Rough translation: Beginning Tuesday, all leisure-time gathering places in Bavaria are to close, including bars, until April 19.

If "bars" includes beer gardens, I have no idea what those poor folks are going to do. Heads asplode, most likely.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on March 16, 2020, 02:05:15 pm
You have an expansive view, Paul, and a beguiling mind.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 16, 2020, 03:49:38 pm
Things have gotten real here.

We've got military choppers in the air.

They've been buzzing over my neighborhood all afternoon.

Yikes!

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on March 16, 2020, 03:57:57 pm
In some areas I would expect the National Guard deployed. Some may well get curfews. I have friends in several other countries reporting their governments calling for it almost right away as well as school closures, work from home schemes and priority testing for corona suspect cases only.

Hurricane Katrina is perhaps a comparable situation in some places, or at least they fear it might be, with looting, fighting over goods, unrest etc.

I think a lot of governments (excepting my own oddly enough, who seem set on not controlling the corona infection curve but relying on "herd immunity" principles) are going into control phase mode to limit the growth curve because most countries do not have more than 5000 ventilators, limited testing kits and med resources. It's a sensible thing to do at this point. We want to flatten that infection growth curve as much as possible so our medical staff don't get overwhelmed, and we're going to have to deal with some inevitable opportunism by people wanting to hoard or steal.

We've seen the toilet paper fights just about everywhere. Hopefully we don't see stranger things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sephirah on March 16, 2020, 04:33:08 pm
Well, I guess we know the procedure for a full blown zombie apocalypse now. Just panic buy something that makes no sense. If the Walking Dead ever becomes a thing, my money is on frying pans. Or garden topsoil. People confuse me massively sometimes.

In all seriousness, though, yeah I'm kinda worried. I'm pretty vulnerable to this, with my health issues. So I'm isolating myself until further notice. And my thoughts are with those who've succumbed to COVID-19, and their families. Knowing you have a very small chance of actually dying from this is cold comfort to people who actually do, and the people around them.

I hope for the best for you all. Be safe, as much as you can. Do what you can to limit the spread. And leave the Andrex puppies alone, okay? I know there may not be any toilet rolls left, but a dog is for life, not just for viral outbreak anal cleanliness. :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on March 17, 2020, 04:32:37 am
I always keep large quantities of toilet paper, paper towels, and bottled water on hand, not to mention toiletries and household goods. But I needed to stock my larder.

I went to Target early on Monday morning; I knew that some merchandise had been restocked during the night. Because of my food issues, I don't keep lots of canned items on hand, but I'll deal with my food sensitivities if I can keep my belly full. Still, I was twentieth in line, and I didn't know how much canned food had come in.

Almost every person in front of me hustled to the toilet paper aisle. I went straight to the canned soup and tuna first.

I suspect that my next trip, tentatively planned for Wednesday morning, will not be as successful because people will be thinking more clearly by then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 17, 2020, 05:55:00 am
Quote
I was twentieth in line

Perhaps if you'd coughed a few times, the line might have become shorter.   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 17, 2020, 09:59:18 am
Perhaps if you'd coughed a few times, the line might have become shorter.   ;)


Most excellent. Coulda mumbled something about crummy Italian airlines and long lines at customs, too.



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sophiaprincess2019 on March 17, 2020, 09:11:24 pm
I came down with mild symptoms this afternoon - Fever, cough, aches, tired malaise, rundown down feeling. I called my Doctor, he's monitoring me at the moment. I hope I'm not positive for this, it seems like it's a huge burden socially and financially not to mention taking a toll on my health!

Sophia
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 17, 2020, 09:14:02 pm
I came down with mild symptoms this afternoon - Fever, cough, aches, tired malaise, rundown down feeling. I called my Doctor, he's monitoring me at the moment. I hope I'm not positive for this, it seems like it's a huge burden socially and financially not to mention taking a toll on my health!

Sophia

That does not sound good Sophia.
The fever part is most concerning to her about.

When you drive, are you alone?

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 18, 2020, 08:39:15 am
I came down with mild symptoms this afternoon - Fever, cough, aches, tired malaise, rundown down feeling. I called my Doctor, he's monitoring me at the moment. I hope I'm not positive for this, it seems like it's a huge burden socially and financially not to mention taking a toll on my health!

Sophia

Oh, no, Sophia! Were there lesser symptoms before the fever, cough, aches, and malaise?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Erika_ on March 18, 2020, 03:23:52 pm
The biggest thing that worries me about the corona virus is that it will create a backlog for SRS. My estimated wait time was already two years. How much longer will I have to wait.

I don't really care about myself getting the corona virus, but having to wait longer for surgery after waiting so long is not something I'm looking forward to.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 18, 2020, 03:48:50 pm
It's not just surgury that's being postponed.  I just got a call from my optometrist letting me know that my appointment tomorrow has been put off for 2 weeks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on March 18, 2020, 03:52:51 pm
It's not just surgury that's being postponed.  I just got a call from my optometrist letting me know that my appointment tomorrow has been put off for 2 weeks.

@AnneK
Dear Anne:
I am running into exactly the same issues with my Dentist, and with my local clinic
for my normally scheduled blood draw testing....
....and so far in the big state of Alaska we
only have 3 to 6 reported cases of corona virus, all far away from my little town....
Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 18, 2020, 05:49:29 pm
My FFS for April got canceled - not a surprise and I’m frankly relieved; was able to get full refund on all my travel - also a relief. I rescheduled for August...I hope that’s enough time for the pandemic to die down. If I can’t get it done by then, then it will probably have to get pushed until next summer, which would be a bummer.

I feel real sorry for those getting GRS moved. If my GRS gets moved, that would be very depressing.

Sarah

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Jennifer300 on March 18, 2020, 07:26:03 pm
I came down with mild symptoms this afternoon - Fever, cough, aches, tired malaise, rundown down feeling. I called my Doctor, he's monitoring me at the moment. I hope I'm not positive for this, it seems like it's a huge burden socially and financially not to mention taking a toll on my health!

Sophia

I get allergies in the spring pretty bad, and live in the worst place in the U.S. for allergies.  I had some symptoms recently and still do.  I am trying to stay away from everyone as much as possible.  I could have allergies, flu, some other bug, etc.   Did you get tested for the Corona Virus?   I have not been tested but I also don't feel that bad.   Again I always get allergies pretty bad this time of year and it feels no different than any other year. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 18, 2020, 08:18:58 pm
For those of you who felt this pandemic was overblown, do you still feel that way? If not, why not? What persuaded you it's going to be a big deal? The stock market? The mounting deaths? Big businesses closing? Cities, states, and countries on lockdown? If you still dismiss it, then why?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 18, 2020, 08:41:55 pm
Keep calm and be safe.


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 18, 2020, 08:59:29 pm
For those of you who felt this pandemic was overblown, do you still feel that way? ...
... If you still dismiss it, then why?

I have been a working Pharmacist for over 40 years and I have served on many infection control committees in hospitals and nursing homes during those years.

Additionally, my last military assignment was at Ft Detrick, MD at the US Army Medical Research and Material Command. These are the people that contained the Ebola epidemic  in West Africa, however, I retired before this mission was launched.

I have said repeatedly in these forums, wash your hands, practice good sanitation, avoid large crowds, cough and sneeze in a safe direction and stay home if symptoms happen.

This is really all we should be doing if we are symptom free.

If you do not have symptoms, then virus testing everybody will overwhelm the laboratory companies and give us false readings, just to get through the extremely large number of samples needed to be tested. Also, just because you may test clean today, does not mean you will be not infected for the duration of this pandemic.

If you do have symptoms, call you doctor and ask for his or her recommendations. For most people, just home quarantine is all that is needed. Very few people actually need to be in the hospital.

I want to make this very clear, I do NOT dismiss the seriousness of this pandemic. I think that the news media is not doing a good job of giving us factual information in a timely manner. There are way too many televised reports from someone in authority who hasn't a clue. No names here. Do your own fact check.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: CTee on March 18, 2020, 09:27:04 pm
I have been a working Pharmacist for over 40 years and I have served on many infection control committees in hospitals and nursing homes during those years.

Additionally, my last military assignment was at Ft Detrick, MD at the US Army Medical Research and Material Command. These are the people that contained the Ebola epidemic  in West Africa, however, I retired before this mission was launched.

I have said repeatedly in these forums, wash your hands, practice good sanitation, avoid large crowds, cough and sneeze in a safe direction and stay home if symptoms happen.

This is really all we should be doing if we are symptom free.

If you do not have symptoms, then virus testing everybody will overwhelm the laboratory companies and give us false readings, just to get through the extremely large number of samples needed to be tested. Also, just because you may test clean today, does not mean you will be not infected for the duration of this pandemic.

If you do have symptoms, call you doctor and ask for his or her recommendations. For most people, just home quarantine is all that is needed. Very few people actually need to be in the hospital.

I want to make this very clear, I do NOT dismiss the seriousness of this pandemic. I think that the news media is not doing a good job of giving us factual information in a timely manner. There are way too many televised reports from someone in authority who hasn't a clue. No names here. Do your own fact check.

Here, here, @Rakel (https://www.susans.org/forums/index.php?action=profile;u=5874). Bang on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 18, 2020, 09:37:18 pm
My own town recorded its first case, so we're going into a two-week "shelter in place."

You can't go out just anywhere, but entities such as "grocery stores, banks, convenience stores, pharmacies, restaurants for delivery and pick up only, laundromats, skilled trades essential to maintaining the safety and sanitation of residences, hardware stores, medical service providers, first responders, transportation providers, government activities and essential social service providers and shelters" are exempt.

So, yeah. It's not all that inconvenient.

It's mostly an exercise in virtue signaling. We're part of a larger urban area. Drive a mile in any direction and you're clear. To the extent that the lockdown drives home the message to take things seriously, I guess it's great. To the extent it needlessly frightens and stresses everyone, I'm not very pleased.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 18, 2020, 10:21:54 pm
I get allergies in the spring pretty bad, and live in the worst place in the U.S. for allergies.  I had some symptoms recently and still do.  I am trying to stay away from everyone as much as possible.  I could have allergies, flu, some other bug, etc.   Did you get tested for the Corona Virus?   I have not been tested but I also don't feel that bad.   Again I always get allergies pretty bad this time of year and it feels no different than any other year.

According to a doctor on the news tonight, the thing to watch for is shortness of breath.  If you don't have that, you probably don't have the CV.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 18, 2020, 11:23:15 pm
We've got just one case that I am aware of.

Turns out those choppers had to do with our only case, an Airman from the AFB tested positive.

https://www.wnct.com/community/health/coronavirus/seymour-johnson-afb-confirms-its-first-case-of-covid-19/ (https://www.wnct.com/community/health/coronavirus/seymour-johnson-afb-confirms-its-first-case-of-covid-19/)

Had to go out yesterday to try and fill the freezer just in case of lock down.

I am ashamed to say, that I avoided every AFB service person that was in the store. There is always plenty shopping in the afternoon.

The base is only a couple miles from my home. So we see them shopping out here in the outskirts of the city. After all, Everyone has to work and live someplace. Not all on base either.

I am plain sick of this already.

If we ever find out this was the result of foul play, I hope we give China due justice.

Lisa



Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 18, 2020, 11:56:59 pm
My FFS for April got canceled - not a surprise and I’m frankly relieved; was able to get full refund on all my travel - also a relief. I rescheduled for August...I hope that’s enough time for the pandemic to die down. If I can’t get it done by then, then it will probably have to get pushed until next summer, which would be a bummer.

I feel real sorry for those getting GRS moved. If my GRS gets moved, that would be very depressing.

Sarah

Sounds good! We do not know what will happen in the next few months.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 19, 2020, 07:29:54 am
We've got just one case that I am aware of.

Turns out those choppers had to do with our only case, an Airman from the AFB tested positive.

https://www.wnct.com/community/health/coronavirus/seymour-johnson-afb-confirms-its-first-case-of-covid-19/ (https://www.wnct.com/community/health/coronavirus/seymour-johnson-afb-confirms-its-first-case-of-covid-19/)

Had to go out yesterday to try and fill the freezer just in case of lock down.

I am ashamed to say, that I avoided every AFB service person that was in the store. There is always plenty shopping in the afternoon.

The base is only a couple miles from my home. So we see them shopping out here in the outskirts of the city. After all, Everyone has to work and live someplace. Not all on base either.

I am plain sick of this already.

If we ever find out this was the result of foul play, I hope we give China due justice.

Lisa

You know, the Chinese are accusing the Americans of developing the virus, but here's no foul play on either side. Viruses happen. Coronaviruses are well known and have been with us for forever. The only difference is this strain and strains develop through mutations.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 19, 2020, 09:49:39 am
You know, the Chinese are accusing the Americans of developing the virus, but here's no foul play on either side. Viruses happen. Coronaviruses are well known and have been with us for forever. The only difference is this strain and strains develop through mutations.

According to what I heard in the news the other day, that originated with the Russians.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 19, 2020, 09:50:16 am
Watch out for the scams!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tKC6CWSJac (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tKC6CWSJac)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2020, 10:14:20 am
According to what I heard in the news the other day, that originated with the Russians.
Social media says it's from Mars.

You can believe it because it was online.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Erika_ on March 19, 2020, 10:16:20 am
According to a doctor on the news tonight, the thing to watch for is shortness of breath.  If you don't have that, you probably don't have the CV.

I have shortness of breath normally, so that might give me a false positive.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 19, 2020, 10:20:58 am
Rakel, you wrote this a bit back: "I am not worried at all about Coronavirus, in spite of the news media exaggeration of the health issues."

Do you still feel that way?

I'm not asking you trying to hold you to what you wrote. I'm a fan of people who can change their opinion. I'm just wondering if you have changed your opinion or are you still "not worried at all about the Coronavirus" and do you still believe that the news media has exaggerated. I ask this having just read that Italy lost nearly 500 people to the virus in the last 24 hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 19, 2020, 10:25:03 am
Watch out for the scams!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tKC6CWSJac (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tKC6CWSJac)

At times like this, I wish we still put people in stocks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 19, 2020, 10:38:23 am
I have shortness of breath normally, so that might give me a false positive.

Do you have other symptoms?  I should have mentioned it, but the doctor said it's shortness of breath that says it's CV, not the flu or bad old.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 19, 2020, 10:39:21 am
What Coronavirus Symptoms Look Like, Day By Day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOJqHPfG7pA (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOJqHPfG7pA)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2020, 10:50:41 am
Putting on my biostatistician hat, I thought I'd point something important out that no one in the media seems to be saying.

The numbers are scary. Infections and deaths are rising fast.

That's exactly as it should be at this stage of the game.

Remember that mass testing is just now rolling out, but tests are still in short supply. Testing has to be prioritized. Most important of all is to test folks who are really sick, because that's how doctors tell whether you have COVID-19, the flu, or whatever else, and that dictates your course of treatment.

On to the statistics:

We know that mass testing is rolling out, and that it's rolling out faster and faster. That's going to catch infected people in the background population faster and faster. We hope that the testing rate will exceed the infection rate eventually. When that happens, the reported number of daily new infections will drop.

For now, sadly, with mostly sick people getting tested, we're going to see high mortality rates for a while. Mortality rates will decline as testing expands to a broader population.

This is not to put a good spin on the crisis by any means. The numbers are gruesome, and they're going to be worsening for some time to come.

All the same, by the very nature of the system, the numbers will get better simply because of mass testing.

So don't let the statistics mislead you. Things are bad, no doubt, but sometimes there's less reason to worry than the numbers would suggest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2020, 10:55:46 am

So don't let the statistics mislead you. Things are bad, no doubt, but sometimes there's less reason to worry than the numbers would suggest.

As they say, statistics are like bathing suits. What they show is pretty nifty, but they hide all the good stuff.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lisa89125 on March 19, 2020, 11:04:32 am
I've got a good question,

How long can we go without getting our normal lab work done?

I know our situation isn't all that critical compared to what is going on right now. But how long can we be shunted down the list before we might have issues with our health?

Lisa
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Erika_ on March 19, 2020, 11:19:16 am
Do you have other symptoms?  I should have mentioned it, but the doctor said it's shortness of breath that says it's CV, not the flu or bad old.

I've had breathing troubles for the last ten years, so it's not a recent thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 19, 2020, 12:20:50 pm
I've got a good question,

How long can we go without getting our normal lab work done?

I know our situation isn't all that critical compared to what is going on right now. But how long can we be shunted down the list before we might have issues with our health?

Lisa

I haven't had my levels checked since late 2017, and I'm fine. <twitch, drool>  :laugh:

In all seriousness, I think most of us get checked once a year after our long term dosages are established.

Hugs, Devlyn
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on March 19, 2020, 06:20:38 pm
I just  had my lab tests and just went through the new protocol to see the doctor for my six month followup with no delays.  She was pleased that I cut my triglyceride number in half to 90 and said to continue whatever I was doing.  ;D

Marion
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 19, 2020, 06:50:37 pm
Rakel, you wrote this a bit back: "I am not worried at all about Coronavirus, in spite of the news media exaggeration of the health issues."

Do you still feel that way?

For my self, I decided to watch limited TV News coverage of the Covid-19. I have and always will wash my hands, avoid large crowds and cough and sneeze in a safe direction.

To this, I will now add that panic buying of anything is not for me. If I do get sick, I will just take the appropriate actions such as self quarantine in my home and call my doctor with my current symptoms.

It is true that anyone can get sick, but for me I know how to mitigate the possibility of infection and more than anything else, I will wash my hands. I have been there and done that. It worked for me and I will continue to wash my hands again and again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: BrightWindow on March 20, 2020, 08:16:30 am
Will the outbreak affect my medical transition?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: sarahc on March 20, 2020, 08:28:43 am
Will the outbreak affect my medical transition?

If you have surgeries coming up in the next few months, they definitely could get postponed.

If I’m being honest, we really shouldn’t be doing electrolysis right now. Like dentists, electrologists are in close quarters with many people’s faces, and electrologists probably pose a very high risk for being carriers / transmitters of the disease.

Sarah
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 20, 2020, 11:08:34 am

To this, I will now add that panic buying of anything is not for me.

I was thinking of building a little toilet paper fort out of all the bales of the stuff I bought.

As for us, the kid made it home from college, so that's one less source of stress.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sophiaprincess2019 on March 20, 2020, 02:05:05 pm
Will the outbreak affect my medical transition?

Aside from limiting or impacting what medical procedures you can get, it probably won't affect the medical portion of transition much.

I came down with flu like symptoms a week ago but they have cleared up. I have also been on hydroxychloroquine since last year for an inflammation related autoimmune issue. Those have been my experiences. I have no underlying health issues and I'm in above average cardiovascular health for someone 51 years old. I'm one of the lucky ones. I pray others have a short interaction with any illness.


Love and support,

Sophia
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 20, 2020, 02:24:05 pm
Aside from limiting or impacting what medical procedures you can get, it probably won't affect the medical portion of transition much.

I came down with flu like symptoms a week ago but they have cleared up. I have also been on hydroxychloroquine since last year for an inflammation related autoimmune issue. Those have been my experiences. I have no underlying health issues and I'm in above average cardiovascular health for someone 51 years old. I'm one of the lucky ones. I pray others have a short interaction with any illness.


Love and support,

Sophia

Asian docs are reporting increased efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine with early ingestion. Did you ever test for COVID-19?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 20, 2020, 02:33:53 pm
I was thinking of building a little toilet paper fort out of all the bales of the stuff I bought.

As for us, the kid made it home from college, so that's one less source of stress.
Hope you don't have dogs (https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200320/69685dbea7afdcbe4a6234eca548d0a7.jpg)

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: BrightWindow on March 20, 2020, 03:28:03 pm
But might it add on to NHS wait times or anything?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sophiaprincess2019 on March 20, 2020, 03:39:39 pm
Asian docs are reporting increased efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine with early ingestion. Did you ever test for COVID-19?

I did not get tested because my Doctor felt my symptoms were not severe enough to warrant it. I'm still being closely monitored for any possible recurrence but for the most part I'm carrying on life as usual. I'm trying not to let myself get caught up in the hype. The second day after I came down with flu symptoms I began to worry but then I thought " Well girl, now that you (might) have it there's really nothing else you can do but get better"..... That thought process carried me through what could have been a long and frightening ordeal.

Anything that doesn't kill me makes me stronger as a woman and a human.

Love to everyone.

Sophia
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 20, 2020, 04:31:59 pm
Coronavirus live updates: 627 die in Italy in 24 hours
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-china-exonerates-whistleblower-doctor-warned/story?id=69702910 (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/coronavirus-live-updates-china-exonerates-whistleblower-doctor-warned/story?id=69702910)

I had heard 700 not too long ago.  Last night, on the news, they showed a convoy of army trucks carrying away the dead.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 23, 2020, 02:09:18 pm
The most heartbreaking thing I keep hearing from folks over there is, "We can't even bury our dead."      :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on March 28, 2020, 05:09:57 pm
For those of you who felt this pandemic was overblown, do you still feel that way? If not, why not?

I've never felt this outbreak, nor SARS, MERS nor Ebola was overblown.

I used to work in a medical lab in a hospital, which also happened to be during the tail-end of one of the SARS outbreaks last decade. Everything I learned about preventing transmission, viruses, Cat 3, etc. I remember. If there's one thing about viruses, it's that they will mutate and return, and that every so often, sometime every century or so, you can expect a large-scale epidemic that escapes containment. Treating it lightly was never on the cards, far as I'm concerned. Any one of them can turn out to be the "big one".

The argument I am hearing most about right now against this being a big deal is that (in the UK for example) something like 17,000 casualties occurred between last year and the one before that were "flu-related". And the same thing tends to repeat yearly. To that I say, looking at Covid19's current growth curve and fatality count, it will exceed 17,000 even with current containment measures and will overwhelm the health service shortly. The parabolic graph says it all. Even if we do "flatten" it VERY quickly (not likely) we're looking at the worst "flu season" imaginable in current memory as the absolute best case scenario, and I am not expecting good news.

Had this been taken more seriously at the outset, we might have stood a chance at actual containment. As it happens, it was already well beyond containment before the public was properly informed about it. Back in November it was evident we were dealing with an "unusual" kind of coronavirus by the behavior of the Chinese authorities who were almost certainly enacting damage control measures after they too had screwed up. Some countries' governments - like Sweden - are still stubbornly refusing to take the pandemic seriously. Unfortunately, we now have to sit this out out as a result.

If the public was more informed as a matter of course about the nature of virus transmission and what to do in an outbreak scenario that would have been of help, but more importantly the response of most governments was woeful (some however were very proactive, such as Peru's). I expect after this pandemic eventually abates, we will have learned some lessons about this that should be remembered. Even if all the elites care about is maintaining their economy, they should be reminded without looking after the health and safety of the people there'll be no economy. We would not be in this situation at all had they taken swift action at the start to cancel incoming flights and tourism from the epicentre, to test and restrict people coming in and leaving. If we want to prevent a rerun of this in future, world travel is going to have to be on a hair-trigger lockdown system, ready to be activated if the alarm is given.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 28, 2020, 05:19:04 pm
I've kept reading the Italian newspapers. They say there are shortages of flour, yeast, and mozzarella because everyone is stress-baking, and pizza is a common project.

They don't understand why Americans are hoarding toilet paper. Speculation is that we eat it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 28, 2020, 05:49:45 pm
Paul, if you go back to page one of this thread, you'll see several community members state that they were "not worried."

I was worried because I felt the media did a good job of warning us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sephirah on March 28, 2020, 06:02:57 pm
Even if all the elites care about is maintaining their economy, they should be reminded without looking after the health and safety of the people there'll be no economy. We would not be in this situation at all had they taken swift action at the start to cancel incoming flights and tourism from the epicentre, to test and restrict people coming in and leaving. If we want to prevent a rerun of this in future, world travel is going to have to be on a hair-trigger lockdown system, ready to be activated if the alarm is given.

While I agree that it would be prudent to have more strict measures in place to immediately lockdown places in the event of a viral outbreak, I don't agree that it's a case of "elites" only caring about the economy and the welfare of the people. It's a thing. The economy has taken a massive hit. A hit felt by a lot of everyday people. One that a lot of people are concerned about. Normal people. Who are either struggling, or who have lost their jobs because of this. So I don't think it's fair to make it about a bunch of snobs who couldn't care about anything else. The effects of this lockdown are being felt by a lot of people. And it's something which is going to take this, and probably all other countries, years to recover from.

You can't test people if you don't have the tests available. And with every country in the world wanting the tests, it's not that simple. I know what you're saying. There are a lot of things that could have been done better. But dismissing things isn't the answer. We are where we are. There will always be "Woulda, shoulda, coulda" arguments going on. But that isn't helpful. You can't change the past, only the future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 28, 2020, 06:31:15 pm
I think it is very wise to follow the precautions of social distancing, washing hands correctly and at all of the appropriate times, wearing gloves, staying home, disinfecting, and so on.  Make it so.

I want you all here for a very long time, you are special people. 

Plus lots of people could be a carrier and not be currently sick, but could cause others to get sick. That passage of the virus would be harder to do with effective social distancing, and following all of the other good precautions.

Chrissy


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Sephirah on March 28, 2020, 06:37:44 pm
I think it is very wise to follow the precautions of social distancing, washing hands correctly and at all of the appropriate times, wearing gloves, staying home, disinfecting, and so on.  Make it so.

I want you all here for a very long time, you are special people. 

Plus lots of people could be a carrier and not be currently sick, but could cause others to get sick. That passage of the virus would be harder to do with effective social distancing, and following all of the other good precautions.

Chrissy

Agreed. Sage words. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 29, 2020, 07:01:03 am
Paul, if you go back to page one of this thread, you'll see several community members state that they were "not worried."

I was worried because I felt the media did a good job of warning us.

Yes, I am one of the community members who said they weren't worried, and I stick by my original statement. Not worried is not equivalent to not aware or not careful. I'm practicing (always have, to be honest) good hand washing practices, avoiding unnecessary contact and crowds, etc. And yet, I don't worry about it. Here's some good advice:

...grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference."

To that I'll add my own advice. We're all in this together. The people spending every waking moment posting "I told you so"... "It's all <so and so's> fault" memes and body counts aren't helping anything or anyone at all.

The store shelves are filling back up now that the hoarders have their houses filled to capacity. Social distancing rules are in place to keep everyone a safe distance apart until the risk is past. People are showing their tributes to the healthcare professionals who are taking on this challenge. Look out for your loved ones and neighbours. Share what you can without putting anyone else in danger. "Be excellent to each other."  :)

Hugs, Devlyn
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 29, 2020, 08:21:04 am
Devlyn, I want the body counts. Data doesn't disable me. It informs me.

I don't know anyone "spending every waking moment posting, 'I told you so.'"
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 29, 2020, 08:34:50 am
Devlyn, I want the body counts. Data doesn't disable me. It informs me.

I don't know anyone "spending every waking moment posting, 'I told you so.'"

Consider yourself fortunate.  :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 29, 2020, 09:13:35 am
I think it is very wise to follow the precautions of social distancing, washing hands correctly and at all of the appropriate times, wearing gloves, staying home, disinfecting, and so on.  Make it so.

I want you all here for a very long time, you are special people. 

Plus lots of people could be a carrier and not be currently sick, but could cause others to get sick. That passage of the virus would be harder to do with effective social distancing, and following all of the other good precautions.

Chrissy

Not sure how long I can avoid people as that is not my nature.
I will say that sometimes rationing, with the goal in mind of having enough inventory for all, can inadvertently lead to subjecting people to becoming infected.

Last week I went to the store and there were hundreds of gallons of bottles of water but I could only buy two.  Well, I use about six or so for a normal week, and that is not hoarding anything. The problem is that this puts me in a position of having to go to market every other day to get my two gallons of water, going to another store, and other work arounds.  Every visit exposes one to possible virus.  I am not going to buy more than I would typically use. 

However, no system is perfect.  Politicians and others point blame needlessly.  This is counterproductive. 

To better cope with this limitation, it is easy. All I have to do is to reframe the scenario by saying if there was no limit, some hoarders may have left no gallons for anyone to buy.  There are other alternatives that I implemented to reduce usage.  This inconvenience will pass.

Just like when driving, you do not have to text.  That can wait.

Chrissy

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 29, 2020, 09:54:38 am
Devlyn, I want the body counts. Data doesn't disable me. It informs me.

I don't know anyone "spending every waking moment posting, 'I told you so.'"

According to the news this morning, the U.S. has around 2100.  Canada 61, IIRC.  Given the two countries are so similar, the ratio, based on population, should be about 10:1
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 29, 2020, 09:58:52 am
Last week I went to the store and there were hundreds of gallons of bottles of water but I could only buy two.  Well, I use about six or so for a normal week, and that is not hoarding anything. The problem is that this puts me in a position of having to go to market every other day to get my two gallons of water, going to another store, and other work arounds.  Every visit exposes one to possible virus.  I am not going to buy more than I would typically use. 

This past week, I went to get a prescription renewed.  This one is normally for 100 capsules, but the pharmacy is only selling 1 months supply at a time, due to this crisis.  Since I pay only the dispensing fee, this means my prescription costs will increase by 3 or 4 times.  My hormone refills are for 180 pills, so that means 6x the cost!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on March 29, 2020, 10:15:09 am
According to the news this morning, the U.S. has around 2100.  Canada 61, IIRC.  Given the two countries are so similar, the ratio, based on population, should be about 10:1
@AnneK 
Large mega-cities and population density differences between Canada and the USA might possibly contribute to the "ratio"  disparity that you mentioned.

Here where I live the population is very sparse with no large cities anywhere near, plus the arctic winter weather up North in Alaskan and much of the Provinces in Canada also tend to keep many tourists and visitors away. 
In my small town I am not aware of any Covid-19 cases... but we are on lock-down with many businesses closed which will minimize a lot of cross contamination if coronavirus cases do come to my area. 
The larger cities like Fairbanks and Anchorage do have some coronavirus cases.... but not near as many as down in the lower 48 states.

Just thinking out loud..........
Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: BrightWindow on March 29, 2020, 10:46:34 am
@AnneK 
Large mega-cities and population density differences between Canada and the USA might possibly contribute to the "ratio"  disparity that you mentioned.

Here where I live the population is very sparse with no large cities anywhere near, plus the arctic winter weather up North in Alaskan and much of the Provinces in Canada also tend to keep many tourists and visitors away. 
In my small town I am not aware of any Covid-19 cases... but we are on lock-down with many businesses closed which will minimize a lot of cross contamination if coronavirus cases do come to my area. 
The larger cities like Fairbanks and Anchorage do have some coronavirus cases.... but not near as many as down in the lower 48 states.

Just thinking out loud..........
Danielle

My city used to be quite lively, now it feels very empty with everyone having to stay home.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 29, 2020, 10:51:28 am
I think it is very wise to follow the precautions of social distancing, washing hands correctly and at all of the appropriate times, wearing gloves, staying home, disinfecting, and so on.  Make it so.

I want you all here for a very long time, you are special people. 

Plus lots of people could be a carrier and not be currently sick, but could cause others to get sick. That passage of the virus would be harder to do with effective social distancing, and following all of the other good precautions.

Chrissy


Be safe.   We will get through this.

Hugs,

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on March 29, 2020, 11:12:08 am
@AnneK 
Large mega-cities and population density differences between Canada and the USA might possibly contribute to the "ratio"  disparity that you mentioned.

Here where I live the population is very sparse with no large cities anywhere near, plus the arctic winter weather up North in Alaskan and much of the Provinces in Canada also tend to keep many tourists and visitors away. 
In my small town I am not aware of any Covid-19 cases... but we are on lock-down with many businesses closed which will minimize a lot of cross contamination if coronavirus cases do come to my area. 
The larger cities like Fairbanks and Anchorage do have some coronavirus cases.... but not near as many as down in the lower 48 states.

Just thinking out loud..........
Danielle

In Canada, most of the population is in the cities.  For example, Toronto, which I live right next to, has a population of over 2.7 million.  There are other major cities, such as Montreal or Vancouver  Conversely, the province of Saskatchewan could be compared with Montana.  The province of Ontario might compare with New York state.  Over 1/3 of the population of Canada is here, most around Toronto.  On the other hand, northern Ontario might be comparable to northern Minnesota or  Alaska, with mostly empty land, with small towns scattered here and there.  And yes, it can get d*mn cold there too!  The southern most part of Ontario is about the same latitude as Northern California.  Then you can compare Manitoba and North Dakota.  So, on the whole, the two countries are similar.  We just don't have the hot areas, such as Florida or California.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 31, 2020, 10:22:58 pm
My son communicated an interesting perspective on sanitizing. It is far more difficult than we realize.

When in college he worked at the nuclear reactor. They had to regularly clean the incidental contamination that inevitably occurred. They used Geiger counters to find all the little bits, thumbprints, drips, etc. It was hard! Stuff was everywhere.

Be patient with yourselves and do the best you can. Take care.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 01, 2020, 02:17:53 pm
This Youtube video is informative on COVID-19. It is basically in Korean with English subtitles.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAk7aX5hksU

Although I disagree with the doctor on wearing a mask, the ending remarks are impressive.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 01, 2020, 03:45:27 pm
One wonders if there will be a fundamental shift in the way we work, shop, and play after this COVID-19 pandemic runs its course.

More WAH (work at home), e-learning, virtual meetings, Web shopping, absentee ballots, virtual church and sermons, more flight to less densely populated areas, tables placed far apart in restaurants (thus lowering their service capacity and need of employees), and more people washing their hands more often after using the restroom.

Less use of public transportation, crowded gyms, and business travel.  Lower numbers of people at “huge attendance” events, less handshaking, fewer fresh grocery shopping trips, and fewer visits to countries with poor medical systems.

I am sure you can add to the list.  Unfortunately, there probably will be about the same number of people who text while they drive, and those who are haters, rude, jerks, and unkind.  But I wish that those numbers will go down too.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Denice on April 01, 2020, 09:00:18 pm
Such thinking intrigues me. How will the coronavirus's impact ripple onward after the pandemic has subsided? For example, the Black Death reverberated through architecture, literature, and even the air once the plague had passed. Architecture became gloomier and more Gothic, as did literature, and glacial samples reveal that the air was cleaned of lead as lead smelting was greatly reduced by a reduced population.

I did hear this about the Black Death. One of the byproducts was piles pf rags that the poor once wore. Rags were used to make paper. With all those piles of rags available the price of paper dropped precipitously. Gutenberg had plenty of material to perfect his printing press.

Also it gave the common man a greater sense of his power in the world, and a clearer sense of who his opponents were. One thing they demanded was higher wages, since there were less of them around; they had the notion of supply and demand. The Nobles said No, and the Church backed the Nobles. Make of that what you will.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 05, 2020, 04:16:52 pm
I did hear this about the Black Death. One of the byproducts was piles pf rags that the poor once wore. Rags were used to make paper. With all those piles of rags available the price of paper dropped precipitously. Gutenberg had plenty of material to perfect his printing press.

The Black Death was similar to the current coronavirus pandemic in that both were certainly originated from China, and China overcame them well while Europeans were ill-prepared and devastated. At that time, China had better bureaucratic systems in dealing with the epidemic, and probably today it is still the same.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/23/asia/plague-china-history-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: CTee on April 06, 2020, 09:19:14 am
My son's grandmother (my former mother-in-law), was one of the coronavirus fatalities in Ontario last month. She was 82, but healthy before she was infected. She died at home, apparently. Alone.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 06, 2020, 12:12:41 pm
My son's grandmother (my former mother-in-law), was one of the coronavirus fatalities in Ontario last month. She was 82, but healthy before she was infected. She died at home, apparently. Alone.  :(

There is the Pinecrest nursing home, in Bobcageon Ontario, where, last I heard, 23 of the 65 residents died!  That's over 1/3 of them!!! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on April 06, 2020, 09:28:47 pm
One wonders if there will be a fundamental shift in the way we work, shop, and play after this COVID-19 pandemic runs its course.


I think it'll have to. There are some changes I'm concerned about, such as the push to abolish cash, which some might use the crisis to do. But they were trying to do this anyway. The implications of it are disturbing when you realize your wealth won't even exist in real terms and you'll have no physical control over it. The obvious political opportunism of institutions and governments all over the world during this pandemic haven't escaped attention.

This virus won't be gone in a year. It will probably spring up again in secondary waves in certain areas, but we know we can't stay in quarantine or lockdown forever. People will have to change their behavior to minimize risk; they already have changed behavior quite a bit where I live. There's social pressure from the community not to do irresponsible things. I've had more conversations with strangers and smiles from people I don't know passing me in the last month than in ten years here as the community feels like a whole. That's fortunate where I am. Some large towns and cities will probably have the police cracking down on people instead and possibly some unrest.

There's a balance needed between freedom and draconian behavior of the authorities. It would be better if people acted sensibly on their own. Since our PM is now in the ICU I hope this sends a message to the average person it can land anyone in intensive care or worse and to take it seriously.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 06, 2020, 09:53:17 pm
There is the Pinecrest nursing home, in Bobcageon Ontario, where, last I heard, 23 of the 65 residents died!  That's over 1/3 of them!!!

Last I heard, it was 26, which is 40% of the residents gone!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 07, 2020, 10:15:05 am
The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is in intensive care now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 07, 2020, 10:27:45 am
I wonder why many people are not abiding by the social distancing recommendations.  I realize that many are abiding.

There are many opinions, as well as information about what people are doing that does and does not support social distancing, that have been made available in various articles and posts on the Internet.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 07, 2020, 10:51:07 am
I wonder why many people are not abiding by the social distancing recommendations.  I realize that many are abiding.

There are many opinions, as well as information about what people are doing that does and does not support social distancing, that have been made available in various articles and posts on the Internet.

Chrissy

Chrissy, I think it's an issue of immediate gratification. Denial of death might also be in play, the common belief that the Grim Reaper doesn't know where to find me because something (God, fate, my health, my youth, etc.) hides me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on April 07, 2020, 11:17:15 am
I wonder why many people are not abiding by the social distancing recommendations.  I realize that many are abiding.

There are many opinions, as well as information about what people are doing that does and does not support social distancing, that have been made available in various articles and posts on the Internet.

Chrissy
Many don't even believe it's "real" because they don't know anyone directly affected by it. Lots of conspiracy theories lately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 07, 2020, 12:23:27 pm
Many don't even believe it's "real" because they don't know anyone directly affected by it. Lots of conspiracy theories lately.

If that's the way they're going to roll, I no longer believe in ALS because I've known no one afflicted with it and I no longer believe in Bali because I've never been there. Also, blue whales are as fictitious as unicorns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 07, 2020, 12:34:47 pm
Some people think if you are outdoors, social distancing is not required.  Not true.


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 07, 2020, 01:10:29 pm
I wonder why many people are not abiding by the social distancing recommendations.

Many believe such things don't apply to them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 07, 2020, 01:11:20 pm
If that's the way they're going to roll, I no longer believe in ALS because I've known no one afflicted with it and I no longer believe in Bali because I've never been there. Also, blue whales are as fictitious as unicorns.

But the Great Pumpkin is real!   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: randim on April 07, 2020, 01:21:58 pm
Unfortunately, there have been several instances in the past of potential epidemics that did not materialize to any great extent, like swine flu.  There were some dire predictions made that did not happen.  Much like in the story of the boy who cried wolf, these early minor episodes caused the populace, at least large chunks of it, to disregard early COVID-19 warnings.  Many people were very late to awaken to the danger. And unfortunately, the public health response has been tangled with politics, at least in the U.S.. It makes it difficult to arrive at a consensus of the danger and what needs to be done.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 07, 2020, 02:14:16 pm
But the Great Pumpkin is real!   ;)

Of course. The Great Pumpkin's existence is known as the Universal Unifier, as ALL species, from Earth's hedgehogs to Y8ii's gilded dustworms, agree it's real.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 07, 2020, 02:15:22 pm
Unfortunately, there have been several instances in the past of potential epidemics that did not materialize to any great extent, like swine flu.  There were some dire predictions made that did not happen.  Much like in the story of the boy who cried wolf, these early minor episodes caused the populace, at least large chunks of it, to disregard early COVID-19 warnings.  Many people were very late to awaken to the danger. And unfortunately, the public health response has been tangled with politics, at least in the U.S.. It makes it difficult to arrive at a consensus of the danger and what needs to be done.

I had a different experience. I lived through swine flu and others, but had no fear of them. I knew this virus was different and I knew that from the early data.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 07, 2020, 02:45:03 pm
I had a different experience. I lived through swine flu and others, but had no fear of them. I knew this virus was different and I knew that from the early data.

When I was a kid, the big scares were polio and TB.  Fortunately, vaccines were developed for both.  Over the years, there have been several other things that were epidemic elsewhere, but not here.  There used to be a killer called smallpox, but it has been eradicated, leaving only lab samples in existence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: milena on April 08, 2020, 01:49:00 am
mustache growing, laser treatment cancelled, feel like Doris from shrek lol!! yikes
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 08, 2020, 06:35:38 pm
...
There's a balance needed between freedom and draconian behavior of the authorities.
...

Although some doubt has recently been cast on the official figures, China's remarkably few deaths from Covid-19, especially considering its 1.4bn population and the fact that the virus started there, paints a picture of authorities exercising their power with amazing efficiency on behalf of the population.  China is emerging from the crisis much sooner, and with far less damage to its economy, than other great economies of America and Europe. 

i believe that this situation will reduce internal pressure for more freedom within China, and tempt even Western democracies to emulate China's ability to instantly take authoritarian steps without democratic debate, should governments perceive that they are necessary.


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 08, 2020, 10:04:39 pm
Quote
China is emerging from the crisis much sooner, and with far less damage to its economy, than other great economies of America and Europe.

Actually, things are considerably different even within those regions.  Compare Canada & U.S..  Last I heard, on the news tonight, we've had about 425 deaths total.  Based on population, the U.S. should have had 4-5000, but are around13,000 now.  In New York alone, they had almost 800 just yesterday!  Why the big difference between Canada & U.S.?  In Italy, they did things pretty poorly, compared to some other European countries.  Also, their practice of huggig everyone may have contributed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on April 09, 2020, 02:23:02 am
An effective response doesn't have to be authoritarian. New Zealand closes it's borders early and has held to a remarkable 1200 cases, 1 death so far. And then we have our leadership which can't seem to make up its mind between poorly conceived directions.

Also both between Nations and states there is a huge influence of luck (a biotech firm near me held a very poorly timed international meeting that resulted in 70 cases right at the outset. Generally places with a combination of high travel and high population density are at greater initial risk. However here in the US, our least populous counties are now entering an exponential growth phase, probably exacerbated in those states that still haven't mandated shutdowns.

Itys far too early to say whose economy will be hurt harder, China's has certainly experienced A body blow.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 09, 2020, 05:55:37 am
I didn't know New Zealand had borders.   ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 09, 2020, 12:35:03 pm
I didn't know New Zealand had borders.   ;)

We call it an EEZ.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: JanePlain on April 09, 2020, 02:38:45 pm
Personally I don't trust China with its reports of anything.  The fellow that Identified the Virus and went public was made to disapear.  Under and non reporting seem to me to be most likely from a totalitarian country like China.  A place that may one day be on the end of a lot of angry countries asking them difficult questions.  These wet markets have always disgusted me (For non viral reasons)  Maybe its time for this to end once and for all.

And not to add any more concern then people already have - read up on the last great pandemic.  1918.  it didn't go away anytime soon and there were three waves of it so while I hope and pray this is not going to be anything like that I think its likely to be a lot closer to that,  I agree we got pretty complacent  when we were warned some awful pandemic was coming (and little happened) and the reality we already have from this nightmare.

Isolate, Everyone PLEASE Mask up if your outdoors, shopping etc, Don't make unnessesary trips, make plans to stretch out what you have in case this lasts longer.  If you go to the market take off your shoes (cloths) and shower or at least wash your hands.  Spray down everything you had with you.  Phones, keys etc.  Do the door knobs and don't skimp on keeping your surfaces clean.  Pray for the people trying to help.  Love to you all!  - Jane 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 09, 2020, 05:23:36 pm
Some retailers are now deciding to not generally accept as returns “overbought products” such as toilet tissue.  This is to discourage hoarding.  Good action, if this stops at least some of the hoarding.


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnneK on April 09, 2020, 10:08:29 pm
Some retailers are now deciding to not generally accept as returns “overbought products” such as toilet tissue.  This is to discourage hoarding.  Good action, if this stops at least some of the hoarding.

There was one couple in Vancouver, B.C. who were buying up all the Lysol wipes they could find.  However, after they were outed, Amazon blocked their account and Costco refused to accept returns.  Hopefully, they lost thousands.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 10, 2020, 01:26:34 am
An effective response doesn't have to be authoritarian.
...
Itys far too early to say whose economy will be hurt harder, China's has certainly experienced A body blow.

An effective response may not have to be authoritarian but China's amazingly low official Covid-19 death figures, whether real or fictional, create an image of authoritian efficiency, for the benefit of the populace, compared to Western Europe and the USA, which were theoretically in a far better position to contain the spread of the virus but failed to do so.  I think that such a perception may curb dissent in China.

Also, for China's economy to be stronger relative to Europe and the USA, it is only necessary for the markets to behave as though China's version of events is true, regardless of whether it is.  Besides, China's return to production is real, though in the early stages, but that is a huge advantage against economic rivals who are still in lockdown.  The IMF website,
An Early View of the Economic Impact of the Pandemic in 5 Charts (https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/06/an-early-view-of-the-economic-impact-of-the-pandemic-in-5-charts/)
 states
"The recovery in China, albeit limited, is encouraging, suggesting that containment measures can succeed in controlling the epidemic and pave the way for a resumption of economic activity."

In the end, though, financiers and traders believe whatever suits them, and markets respond accordingly.  During the recession about ten years ago, when the Western world was over-borrowed, China became very wealthy as a hitherto untapped source of loans.  It was claimed that Chinese banks had huge amounts of money because of the savings of China's retired people.  Whether it makes sense to regard the past labours of retired people as a valuable asset that can be banked and monetarised and loaned to foreign businesses does not matter.  Western businesses got their virtual loans and China's economy boomed.   Similarly, I think the current situation will benefit China's economy, when compared to the USA and Europe. 

As you say, we'll have to wait and see.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 10, 2020, 01:42:35 am
I wonder why many people are not abiding by the social distancing recommendations.  I realize that many are abiding.
'''
Chrissy

Today, I was looking for a loaf of bread in the local Co-Op.  A man brushed against me and reached in front of me to take a loaf.  I turned towards him and our faces were inches apart.  My <I don't understand>! expression seemed to have an effect on him, and he looked as horrified as I was, as though he had just come to his senses. 
There is evidence that the virus can be spread just by breathing or speaking.  If either of us was infected before the encounter, I am sure that both of us are infected now. 
 
What part of the instruction "keep two metres apart" don't some people understand?  He was young and fit, though, and I am in my sixties and sometimes asthmatic.  What the heck, I suppose he regarded me as just another boomer to be removed.


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 10, 2020, 06:48:59 am
51 people in South Korea who had coronavirus and tested positive and then seemingly recovered and tested negative have now tested positive again. It could be faulty testing. And it could be that COVID-19 is a zombie virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 10, 2020, 06:53:20 am
Today, I was looking for a loaf of bread in the local Co-Op.  A man brushed against me and reached in front of me to take a loaf.  I turned towards him and our faces were inches apart.  My <I don't understand>! expression seemed to have an effect on him, and he looked as horrified as I was, as though he had just come to his senses. 
There is evidence that the virus can be spread just by breathing or speaking.  If either of us was infected before the encounter, I am sure that both of us are infected now. 
 
What part of the instruction "keep two metres apart" don't some people understand?  He was young and fit, though, and I am in my sixties and sometimes asthmatic.  What the heck, I suppose he regarded me as just another boomer to be removed.

I'm sure some Millennials are psychopaths, happy to kill Boomers (and everyone else), just as some Boomers are psychopaths, happy to kill Millennials (and everyone else), but I suspect he was just living in his young head, where he considers himself immortal, just as you were living in your older head, where you know otherwise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on April 10, 2020, 10:20:46 am
51 people in South Korea who had coronavirus and tested positive and then seemingly recovered and tested negative have now tested positive again. It could be faulty testing. And it could be that COVID-19 is a zombie virus.

Extremely unlikely, this is commentary on this report from business insider

Quote
Most experts think it's unlikely that the virus reactivates after a "dormancy" period. Only a few types of viruses do that — it's sometimes called going latent — as part of their life cycles inside a cell. HIV and herpes are two examples.

It's more likely that the people in South Korea still had fragments of the coronavirus in their bodies after they recovered. Such fragments don't mean the patients are still infectious or sick, but they can still show up in a nucleic acid test, Dr. Keiji Fukuda, director of Hong Kong University's School of Public Health, told the Los Angeles Times last month.

"The test may be positive, but the infection is not there," Fukuda said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 10, 2020, 10:57:52 am
Extremely unlikely, this is commentary on this report from business insider

Yes. I guess the probability of Type II (false negative) can be as high as 10%, which means 100 among 1,000 positive cases can show negative. The probability of Type II error is more difficult to estimate than Type I error.

It may take more than 2 weeks to know what is the more plausible reason.

As part of the ongoing probe, those who tested positive again through that method had new samples taken, which will be processed through a longer method that takes at least two weeks, Jeong said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/09/coronavirus-latest-news/

barbie~~

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 10, 2020, 11:02:29 am
Two days ago I was out and everyone walking or biking not alone was NOT obeying the social distancing rules, regardless of their apparent age.  The one exception was two bikers, one behind the other.  But most bikers road side by side, as did walkers.

I had an idea that some families were involved and maybe people who live together were involved.  I realize that in some places if you live under the same roof, the social distance rules in public are not required by orders.

So whether they violated any legal rules is unknown.  But in all but one case, when with someone else, all but one group were very close together.

Traffic seemed to be way up also that day.  Pretty day, it was.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on April 10, 2020, 12:08:17 pm
Today, I was looking for a loaf of bread in the local Co-Op.  A man brushed against me and reached in front of me to take a loaf.  I turned towards him and our faces were inches apart.  My <I don't understand>! expression seemed to have an effect on him, and he looked as horrified as I was, as though he had just come to his senses. 
There is evidence that the virus can be spread just by breathing or speaking.  If either of us was infected before the encounter, I am sure that both of us are infected now. 
 
What part of the instruction "keep two metres apart" don't some people understand?  He was young and fit, though, and I am in my sixties and sometimes asthmatic.  What the heck, I suppose he regarded me as just another boomer to be removed.
Wearing a mask yourself (as we are now required to do anyway) may serve as a reminder and a warning to the more oblivious people. We were hiking on a normally quiet mountain trail yesterday. We pulled our masks down when alone, but whenever somebody approached we pulled our masks up and it seemed to help a little in getting people to keep their distance.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 10, 2020, 12:24:30 pm
I needed to go pickup my meds today, but I was able to use a drive through pharmacy and then get right back home.

The traffic was like business as usual.  Some just as rude a driver as before.

I think there must be a tremendous desire of people to be out, so when the country opens up business will slowly but surely resume for those that could afford this shutdown.

The Covid-19 national media conference for the USA will start early today in just a few minutes because today is a very special day, as is the weekend, to many people worldwide.  This weekend seems to be often promoted with eggs and candy and bunny rabbits but there is a deeper meaning to these days to many of us.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MistressStevie on April 11, 2020, 11:21:05 am
What part of the instruction "keep two metres apart" don't some people understand?  He was young and fit, though, and I am in my sixties and sometimes asthmatic.  What the heck, I suppose he regarded me as just another boomer to be removed. 

I avoid ascribing to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence and stupidity.  BUT,  there is sadly a surplus of both out there.  Thus we are using mail order a lot.  Trying to keep money local though has me appreciating the many local merchants (Portland OR) who are taking curbside delivery seriously.  It is awesome as they will place the order in the back seat and look at my ID through the window!   
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: JanePlain on April 11, 2020, 11:40:55 am
Forget the iodiots who are still having parades and aren't wearing a mask or decontaminating when they return home.  Stay out of the public as much as possible.  If you can restock your food without leaving the car do it.  If not go at times most people aren't going to be around.  Wear a mask (Make one if you need to) and then keep your eyes open and be the one staying 6 ft away.  Pharmacy seems to all be drive up but what ever you bring home?  Treat it like its unKnown / UnSafe until you wipe it down.   If you live with family members who don't get any of this apell it out.  Print it out.  ASK why are you leaving?  Is this trip THAT important?  Did you spray down when you came home (And hopefully just dumped your cloths at the door and took a shower.  It takes time to get how serious this is in our heads and it only takes one mistake.

If you need incentive look at the mass graves being filled.  This is B A D bad!  And no one knows how long this will go on and more important if this is anything like 1918 it may come in waves so don't think its really over until they can inoculate people.  And on that?  I might be as long time.  This is a NASTY Virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 11, 2020, 11:54:08 am
Amen, JanePlain!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on April 11, 2020, 12:25:51 pm
I figure the longer I wait to restock my pantry with groceries, the safer it will be.
I last went out two weeks ago and figure it will be another couple weeks before I'll need to restock.

I tried baking pretzels two years ago and the yeast is still good, so I baked some bread today and froze seven little loaves for future meals.  I also saved some yeast so I now have a supply of fresh yeast to use up my flour.

Marion
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 11, 2020, 12:34:16 pm
... 
What part of the instruction "keep two metres apart" don't some people understand?  He was young and fit, though, and I am in my sixties and sometimes asthmatic.  What the heck, I suppose he regarded me as just another boomer to be removed.

I'm sure some Millennials are psychopaths, happy to kill Boomers (and everyone else), just as some Boomers are psychopaths, happy to kill Millennials (and everyone else), but I suspect he was just living in his young head, where he considers himself immortal, just as you were living in your older head, where you know otherwise.

I avoid ascribing to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence and stupidity.  BUT,  there is sadly a surplus of both out there....

You are right, of course, equally Oldandcreaky and MistressStevie.  I was still rather bitter when I wrote it. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 11, 2020, 01:21:28 pm
...
If you need incentive look at the mass graves being filled.  This is B A D bad!  And no one knows how long this will go on and more important if this is anything like 1918 it may come in waves so don't think its really over until they can inoculate people.  And on that?  I might be as long time.  This is a NASTY Virus.

Oh please God, don't let it be that bad!  Yet it potentially could be.  The 1918 virus killed up to 50 million people, and that was on top of the slaughter of WWI.  For reference, the population of England in 1901 was only 41.5 million.  After all that grief came the Roaring Twenties when people put their energy into work and play and tried not to think about the past.  Al Jolson had a reputation for being able to manipulate his audience's emotions, although some of his songs seem twee for modern tastes.  But imagine the effect on a 1920s audience that has come to hear the new jazz songs, and instead listen to Sonny Boy, and eventually realise that the boy that Jolson is singing to is dead.

Within my memory, in 1968, 15% of the population of Hong Kong was killed by the eponymous influenza.

In times like these, I realise how lucky I am that all of my loved ones have already passed on.   

But Janeplain is right, it doesn't have to be that bad if everyone follows the advice.  A casual mistake like I witnessed in the local Co-Op the other day could cause a chain reaction that could cause at least several deaths and a lifetime of grief for many survivors.


 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 11, 2020, 01:32:37 pm

You are right, of course, equally Oldandcreaky and MistressStevie.  I was still rather bitter when I wrote it. :)

The anonymous Internet is a great place to blow off steam!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 11, 2020, 01:34:24 pm
Oh please God, don't let it be that bad!  Yet it potentially could be.  The 1918 virus killed up to 50 million people, and that was on top of the slaughter of WWI.  For reference, the population of England in 1901 was only 41.5 million.  After all that grief came the Roaring Twenties when people put their energy into work and play and tried not to think about the past.  Al Jolson had a reputation for being able to manipulate his audience's emotions, although some of his songs seem twee for modern tastes.  But imagine the effect on a 1920s audience that has come to hear the new jazz songs, and instead listen to Sonny Boy, and eventually realise that the boy that Jolson is singing to is dead.

Within my memory, in 1968, 15% of the population of Hong Kong was killed by the eponymous influenza.

In times like these, I realise how lucky I am that all of my loved ones have already passed on.   

But Janeplain is right, it doesn't have to be that bad if everyone follows the advice.  A casual mistake like I witnessed in the local Co-Op the other day could cause a chain reaction that could cause at least several deaths and a lifetime of grief for many survivors.


 

Mary, you have a buff vocabulary (twee, eponymous). Do you mind sharing its origins?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 11, 2020, 02:03:24 pm
My statement 1 month ago is still valid. I prepare for the worst.

I am ready to eat wild plants and catch fish, even some wild insects. I see a lot of deer this season, and some entering my private property, which would be nice emergency food, together with the visiting wild pheasants.

Nowadays I see a lot of rapeseed flowers, and the plants are edible. The number of deer visiting my house is increasing, and I guess it is the breeding season.

barbie~~



Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 11, 2020, 02:26:03 pm
My statement 1 month ago is still valid. I prepare for the worst.

Nowadays I see a lot of rapeseed flowers, and the plants are edible. The number of deer visiting my house is increasing, and I guess it is the breeding season.

barbie~~

Over the last six summers, I've spread tons and tons of topsoil around my property. All my flower gardens could become veggie gardens. I'm also expanding my orchard, as I've always got one eye considering the possibility of infrastructure collapsing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Pammie on April 11, 2020, 02:28:34 pm
My statement 1 month ago is still valid. I prepare for the worst.

Nowadays I see a lot of rapeseed flowers, and the plants are edible. The number of deer visiting my house is increasing, and I guess it is the breeding season.

barbie~~
I do think that is overdramatised. The fatality rate for people catching this virus is certainly under 1% and the vast majority of the fatalities have underlying problems. I don’t think it helps when people exaggerate because there are lots of people ready to panic. Information is currency and disinformation is the Bain of modern life
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on April 11, 2020, 05:22:56 pm
This New York Times article is very inline with what I’ve been reading of personal experiences in a international doctors medical group that I follow.

Life and Death in the ‘Hot Zone’

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html?referringSource=articleShare

The death rate is quite high for older people and obesity and smoking are major risk factors. It’s still killing plenty of younger healthy people though. It’s a much higher risk than I’m prepared to take with my life so I’m being very careful.

Fortunately Australia seems to have got it under control for the moment. The advantages of an island far away from anywhere.

I’m concerned that our governments don’t represent the people’s interests in this; they tend to be made up by people with significant wealth. They might reasonably be far more concerned with losing money than others dying, far out of proportion to the general population. I expect more and more calls to get back to work, but is it really in our interests? Wish I could trust them more.
Title: Some receint numbers: Coronavirus? None for me please.
Post by: JanePlain on April 11, 2020, 10:39:01 pm
I don't want to loose any of you to this junk.  Please wear a mask. if you have to go out to the grocery store etc.  Even a bandana  will help you not infect others!

I checked 3 web pages for current numbers and here is what I see.  Of the closed cases - The person with labratory confirmation of COVID-19 Infection that has run its course as of 11 April was 510,972.  402,270 of them recovered. 108,702 died.  Clearly the early figures show a death rate more like 20% not 1%. 

There are 1,265,185 other people with COVID-19 that are sick and the outcome for them won't be known until they either recover or die.  The numbers of new cases are staggering.  Looking at the numbers of new infections rate (other then China which claims a flat number of new cases)  its like a rocket going up. 

The incubation period of coronavirus is long – up to fourteen days. This means that coronavirus signs and symptoms may not show up for two weeks after a person has been exposed. During the incubation period, there are no coronavirus signs and symptoms. This means that the person would be able to pass the virus along to others, even though they’re showing no symptoms of coronavirus..  Staying home, making as few trips as possible,  hand-washing , keeping distance beween you and others and wearing some form of protective mask is essential.  reduce the number of times you need to be in public to slow the spread of the virus.

The 1918 / 20 Spanish Flue killed between 50-100 Million people
The 1957 / 1958 Asian Flu Killed 1 Million people.
The 1968 / 1969 Hong Kong Flue Pandemic killed an estimated million people as well.
The 2009 / 2010 pandemic was first reported as having killed 6,000 people.  An accurate account changed that figure to 284,500.   Maybe more worried about causing a panic so it was under reported. 

Last - please note these things aren't over in a month or two If we use the last 4 world wide pandemic as an example it may run for a year or more based on other pandemics.
Title: Re: Some receint numbers: Coronavirus? None for me please.
Post by: Danielle Kristina on April 12, 2020, 12:39:32 am
I don't want to loose any of you to this junk.  Please wear a mask. if you have to go out to the grocery store etc.  Even a bandana  will help you not infect others!

I checked 3 web pages for current numbers and here is what I see.  Of the closed cases - The person with labratory confirmation of COVID-19 Infection that has run its course as of 11 April was 510,972.  402,270 of them recovered. 108,702 died.  Clearly the early figures show a death rate more like 20% not 1%. 

There are 1,265,185 other people with COVID-19 that are sick and the outcome for them won't be known until they either recover or die.  The numbers of new cases are staggering.  Looking at the numbers of new infections rate (other then China which claims a flat number of new cases)  its like a rocket going up. 

The incubation period of coronavirus is long – up to fourteen days. This means that coronavirus signs and symptoms may not show up for two weeks after a person has been exposed. During the incubation period, there are no coronavirus signs and symptoms. This means that the person would be able to pass the virus along to others, even though they’re showing no symptoms of coronavirus..  Staying home, making as few trips as possible,  hand-washing , keeping distance beween you and others and wearing some form of protective mask is essential.  reduce the number of times you need to be in public to slow the spread of the virus.

The 1918 / 20 Spanish Flue killed between 50-100 Million people
The 1957 / 1958 Asian Flu Killed 1 Million people.
The 1968 / 1969 Hong Kong Flue Pandemic killed an estimated million people as well.
The 2009 / 2010 pandemic was first reported as having killed 6,000 people.  An accurate account changed that figure to 284,500.   Maybe more worried about causing a panic so it was under reported. 

Last - please note these things aren't over in a month or two If we use the last 4 world wide pandemic as an example it may run for a year or more based on other pandemics.

I admit that I didn’t see this virus as being as serious in the beginning as it has gotten.  I initially figured it would be like the Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc.; after 15 minutes of fame in the headlines, we never heard of them again.  Unfortunately, the coronavirus is far more serious.  I didn’t do so in the beginning, but I’m wearing gloves and a mask in public.  I’m not so much worried about my own health, but I don’t want to infect others.  Plus, though I’m not as concerned about my own health as I am others, I don’t want to get sick and risk my own well-being either.  My life is worth living and I’m not ready to leave this world yet.


Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Pammie on April 12, 2020, 04:04:23 am
I admit that I didn’t see this virus as being as serious in the beginning as it has gotten.  I initially figured it would be like the Bird Flu, Swine Flu, etc.; after 15 minutes of fame in the headlines, we never heard of them again.  Unfortunately, the coronavirus is far more serious.  I didn’t do so in the beginning, but I’m wearing gloves and a mask in public.  I’m not so much worried about my own health, but I don’t want to infect others.  Plus, though I’m not as concerned about my own health as I am others, I don’t want to get sick and risk my own well-being either.  My life is worth living and I’m not ready to leave this world yet.


Danielle
I think one of the key points is that people are looking at confirmed cases versus fatalities but we only test people (in the uk) who are admitted to hospital - for every such case it’s highly likely there are 10 people who have contracted the virus and either had only mild symptoms or didn’t even know they had it. Look at the German figures where they have done much more extensive testing


I opened the door and the light shone in
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on April 12, 2020, 04:46:08 am
If you include obesity I wouldn't be surprised if half the population of the USA had an underlying problem.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-coroners-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.html
It is  quite likely that the number of deaths in the USA will be under reported due to the lack of tests.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01068-3
A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system.

Marion
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 12, 2020, 06:35:57 am
If you include obesity I wouldn't be surprised if half the population of the USA had an underlying problem.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/06/health/coronavirus-coroners-uncounted-deaths-invs/index.html
It is  quite likely that the number of deaths in the USA will be under reported due to the lack of tests.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01068-3
A Nature investigation of several university labs certified to test for the virus finds that they have been held up by regulatory, logistic and administrative obstacles, and stymied by the fragmented US health-care system.

Marion

According to the CDC, 71.6% of Americans are overweight and 39.8% of Americans are obese.

Even substantial numbers of America's youth have these underlying conditions that make them vulnerable to the novel coronavirus:

Percent of adolescents aged 12-19 years with obesity: 20.6% (2015-2016)
Percent of children aged 6-11 years with obesity: 18.4% (2015-2016)
Percent of children aged 2-5 years with obesity: 13.9% (2015-2016)

FYI: "Although the terms “overweight” and “obese” are similar, the difference between the two arises with Body Mass Index (BMI). ... In general, a person with a BMI of 25-29.9 is considered overweight, while a person with a BMI over 30 is considered obese."

America's epidemic of fat might be one reason the U.S. passed Italy yesterday for most COVID-19 deaths. Given that NYC has TEN TIMES the number of people dying at home and on the streets that it had last year at this time, all untested and  uncounted in the pandemic death toll, our death tally is much greater than is reported.


Danielle Kristina, it takes courage to change your mind. Well done!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 12, 2020, 06:40:59 am
If you include obesity I wouldn't be surprised if half the population of the USA had an underlying problem.
...
Marion

A recent news report on British TV stated that the average age of Covid-19 patients in intensive care is 60, and 73% of patients on respirators are obese.

I'm on a diet.  (But I had an easter egg for lunch.  Back on the diet tomorrow.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MaryT on April 12, 2020, 07:02:27 am
Mary, you have a buff vocabulary (twee, eponymous). Do you mind sharing its origins?

I'm not sure whether you are asking about the origins of my vocabulary or of the words mentioned.  My English vocabulary mainly derives from an English style education, although most of it did not take place in England.  I'm also in my sixties, so I still use words that are no longer fashionable among young people.

I think that Americans use "corny" where older English people use "twee".  "Eponymous" just means that something derives its name from someone or something else, e.g Hong Kong flu is named after Hong Kong.  "Eponymous" is useful if you don't want to use the same names repeatedly.

I suppose as I get older, my vocabulary becomes more and more sesquipedalian.

On the subject of Covid-19, my throat became rather swollen last night and I became slightly hoarse, and I had sweats during the night.  The symptoms started a little over two days after a dangerous encounter on a shopping trip, which is just within the normal incubation period of 2 to 14 days.  I feel much better now, so perhaps the symptoms were psychosomatic, or pertaining to an non-Covid-19 infection.  I'll follow the self-isolation rules, though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on April 12, 2020, 07:26:40 am
I'm not sure whether you are asking about the origins of my vocabulary or of the words mentioned.  My English vocabulary mainly derives from an English style education, although most of it did not take place in England.  I'm also in my sixties, so I still use words that are no longer fashionable among young people.

I think that Americans use "corny" where older English people use "twee".  "Eponymous" just means that something derives its name from someone or something else, e.g Hong Kong flu is named after Hong Kong.  "Eponymous" is useful if you don't want to use the same names repeatedly.

I suppose as I get older, my vocabulary becomes more and more sesquipedalian.

I was familiar with both twee and eponymous. I just don't often encounter them, but a gold-standard English education explains your ease with them.

However, I didn't know "sesquipedalian." I would have reached for "circumlocution," "verbose," or "superfluous syllabication."
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 12, 2020, 07:45:20 am
Boris Johnson is out of the hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 12, 2020, 07:51:57 am
The SARS-CoV-2 is a new type of virus, recently known to humans, and we still do not know well about it. New findings are reported every day. For example, I read the following news today. It is more alarming and serious that the virus may be able to attack our immune system as in AIDS.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3079443/coronavirus-could-target-immune-system-targeting-protective

This is about biology, but most people worry about the economy. which is more uncertain. We have never been here before. I will be relatively fine as I am a kind of government employee, but I see a lot of people whose business has been severely damaged, especially in private sectors such as restaurants and hotels.

And, my son, who recently went to California to study and work with music composition, is under the stay-at-home order, and I may send his living costs until December or later. His mentor is also now unemployed.

Anyways, my winter vacation is de facto extended until May 1. No class to teach during the past 4 months, but the government gives my salary anyway. I am a little bit sorry.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 12, 2020, 07:52:56 am
Boris Johnson is out of the hospital.

Certainly with herd immunity. Congrats.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 12, 2020, 08:01:31 am
However, I didn't know "sesquipedalian." I would have reached for "circumlocution," "verbose," or "superfluous syllabication."

As a non-native English speaker,  words like "sesquipedalian" are challenging. What is the longest word in English excluding technical jargon?

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 12, 2020, 08:08:54 am
Antidisestablishmentarianism
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on April 12, 2020, 09:06:42 am
The link between obesity and respiratory failure is pretty direct and obvious.  You need to expand and contract your lungs   to breath. The disease makes the lungs much less efficient so the lungs have to work harder.  It is even harder if you have to move a lot of fat at the same time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 12, 2020, 09:58:05 am
I suppose as I get older, my vocabulary becomes more and more sesquipedalian.

I luuuurve "sesquipedalian!"

It's curmudgeonly and self-deprecating with just enough sarcasm to make it the perfect occasional hand grenade.

Dr. Johnson was my man.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Perry on April 12, 2020, 10:06:18 am
Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Paul Muad-Dib on April 12, 2020, 10:17:54 am
Counterdisestablishmentarianism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 12, 2020, 01:10:46 pm
Retrodisestablishmentarianistically
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on April 12, 2020, 05:18:44 pm
Preretrodisestablishmentarianistically

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on April 13, 2020, 09:46:38 am
As a non-native English speaker,  words like "sesquipedalian" are challenging.

As a native English speaker, words like "sesquipedalian" are challenging to me!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 13, 2020, 04:18:21 pm
As a non-native English speaker,  words like "sesquipedalian" are challenging. 

barbie~~

Don't worry about it. It's a made-up word coined 250 years ago to mock people who use words that are too long by half.

You'll have a joygasm if you majored in 18th-century English literature and someone nearby uses it, but otherwise it's mostly relegated to the dusty back shelves of obsolete litcrit, poor humor, and strained haiku.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Pammie on April 13, 2020, 04:57:21 pm
Preretrodisestablishmentarianistically

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk
I don’t care if that is not in any known dictionary because it absolutely should be!!


I opened the door and the light shone in
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Janes Groove on April 13, 2020, 05:30:43 pm
Post-Proto-Preretrodisestablishmentarianisticalism.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Janes Groove on April 13, 2020, 05:32:35 pm
Post-Proto-Preretrodisestablishmentarianisticalism.
-ness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 13, 2020, 06:10:08 pm


Onomatopoeia
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 13, 2020, 06:24:32 pm
...and strained haiku.

Pitiful haiku
Sesquipedalianisms
Violate good form
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 13, 2020, 06:39:47 pm
Pitiful haiku
Sesquipedalianisms
Violate good form


Haiku


Five syllables here
Seven more syllables there
Are we happy now?   :)

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 13, 2020, 06:47:01 pm

Haiku


Five syllables here
Seven more syllables there
Are we happy now?   :)
A foot and a half
Wrong number of syllables
Too big for its bed
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 13, 2020, 07:11:28 pm
Five syllables is like the bread of a Haiku sandwich.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 13, 2020, 07:52:10 pm
Five syllables is like the bread of a Haiku sandwich.
Yea, the staff of life:
Wheat, white, pumpernickel, rye
Leavened Procrustes
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 13, 2020, 07:56:45 pm
Has this topic been hijacked?   :)  It been fun at least if it has!


Hey everyone, be safe, be cautious, take precautions against COVID-19.


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 14, 2020, 07:45:46 am
Coronavirus
Has stolen John Prine away
Wretched, wretched days

Poor Sam Stone came home
To his wife and family
With a holy arm

Oh Dear, Dear Abby
What shall we do without you?
Or your one reply

Donald the soldier
Lydia the lonely girl
Made love in their dreams

My illegal smile
Costs little, lasts a long while
Better than oatmeal

Caravans of fools
Bright, illusory
Climb aboard false hope

Please don't bury me
Instead, pass me all around
As I always have

Coronavirus
Has stolen John Prine away
Wretched, wretched days
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on April 14, 2020, 11:41:52 am
Coronavirus
Has stolen John Prine away
Wretched, wretched days

Omg I hadn't heard. We've lost a cherished voice to this wretched pandemic.

RIP my dear friend, you inspired me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 14, 2020, 03:32:09 pm
Has this topic been hijacked?   :)  It been fun at least if it has!

Admittedly, I unintentionally hijacked. Yes. Things do not develop as we planned. Few people expected that the COVID-19 can be as big as this. An interesting fiction written 4 years ago:
https://thehealthcareblog.com/blog/2016/03/15/the-end-of-civilization-and-the-real-donald-trump/

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on April 14, 2020, 05:49:02 pm
A couple of months ago I thought it was going to be worse. Still do I guess, early days.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 16, 2020, 01:28:42 pm
I am glad that the progressive party of S. Korea won a landslide victory in the national parliamentary election on April 15. Yes. The COVID-19 was certainly a driving force. I just hope that the COVID-19 will not outbreak in 2 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJCstkV-AQk

I guess I should prepare for online classes in May. I am considering Google Meet.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 16, 2020, 08:09:32 pm



I guess I should prepare for online classes in May. I am considering Google Meet.

barbie~~

Not at all trying to sound snarky, but... yes. Yes, you should.

Masks or not, I wouldn't want to be in a crowded lecture hall for an hour, nor in a cramped seminar room, especially not knowing how well either room had been cleaned before I got there. Too many other people taking risks with my health.

My kid is doing the end of her semester online. She doesn't like it as much. The professors aren't uniformly good at using the software. It's hard to ask questions or to foster dialogue. It's got to be a real bear for the professors and the TAs.

Based on her experience, it sounds like it'd be a fair notion to select your software right quick and practice practice practice. Maybe you won't have to cut over to online immediately, but you can be prepared for when you might.


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on April 17, 2020, 10:49:22 pm
My daughter and her fiancee both teach science at a college in New Jersey. She is using software designed for online teaching, and he is using PowerPoint.

She records her lectures in advance and is able to "write" on a virtual whiteboard along with her slides. The biggest problem is the lack of feedback. As a teacher you rely on seeing if students are having trouble understanding you so you can adjust in real time.

Chemistry and biology labs are of course a huge problem.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 18, 2020, 06:10:36 am
It looks like maybe the worst is behind us in most parts of the USA.
If you or someone you know has had her or his health impacted, that has got to be tough.
Economic hardships are widespread.

Try to keep your spirits up.

Hugs,

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 18, 2020, 06:28:23 am
Having exhibited all of the initial symptoms (sore throat, high fever, coughing, headache, loss of taste and smell), I followed the guidelines and self isolated for the appropriate time. Having not gotten sick enough to require hospitalisation, I was not tested, but I am going to declare myself a Covid-19 survivor.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 18, 2020, 08:46:18 am
I am going to declare myself a Covid-19 survivor.  :)

Woo-hoo! 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 21, 2020, 01:21:25 pm
Having exhibited all of the initial symptoms (sore throat, high fever, coughing, headache, loss of taste and smell), I followed the guidelines and self isolated for the appropriate time. Having not gotten sick enough to require hospitalisation, I was not tested, but I am going to declare myself a Covid-19 survivor.  :)
Devlyn, if you'd rather not answer, I understand, but I'm curious what your anosmia was like.

Anosmia runs in my family. I have it, my sister, my mother... we can smell strong aromas, and we each of us have some particular scents that always seem to penetrate. But we can scarcely taste anything, so we're all over spicy and strongly-flavored food.

One of the great delights of HRT has been that my anosmia has lifted a bit. I can pick up a range of scents that I've never noticed before, and food tastes richer and more nuanced.

So while I'm heading up, you hit an air pocket. Makes me curious. Was your anosmia total? How long did it last, or has it persisted?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 21, 2020, 01:26:30 pm
It came on overnight, my morning coffee was just a hot drink. I like it sweet, but it wasn't there at all. Then at lunch there was no smell or taste at all. It lasted a couple of days, then coffee was sweet again one morning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: MikaelaA on April 21, 2020, 01:39:28 pm
Having exhibited all of the initial symptoms (sore throat, high fever, coughing, headache, loss of taste and smell), I followed the guidelines and self isolated for the appropriate time. Having not gotten sick enough to require hospitalisation, I was not tested, but I am going to declare myself a Covid-19 survivor.  :)

Devlyn,  It's great to hear you made it through.  I hope you are at least symptom free.  My wife and I are still recovering. She just got out of the hospital yesterday and will be on supplemental oxygen for the foreseeable future. 

Everybody, please do everything you need to do to stay safe.  This virus is no joke.

Hugs,
Michelle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on April 21, 2020, 01:42:58 pm
Thanks, Michelle, I am symptom free now, and my wife never showed any, thankfully.

Hugs to you and your wife. Devlyn
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on April 22, 2020, 10:15:13 am
I guess I should prepare for online classes in May. I am considering Google Meet.

I've used Google Hangouts (now "Meet"?) quite a lot. It usually works well enough, though there always seems to be someone who must reconnect because of some issue. I believe it only allows about 10 people on at once, though. I've not used Zoom, but I understand entire and sizable classes meet through it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 22, 2020, 10:21:29 am


I've not used Zoom, but I understand entire and sizable classes meet through it.

Ditto. My kid's university is finishing their term online using Zoom.


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 22, 2020, 04:55:03 pm
Please dispose of your COVID-19 protective gear appropriately.

Turn gloves inside out, place in receptacle or a trash bag.  I have seen too many on parking lots.
The same goes for masks.

What I have never understood is all the trash people leave on parking lots, along roads, and in drive through lanes.  It is like they think the world is a big garbage can.  Why there are so many bottles, drink cups, bags, cans, and now COVID-19 waste left for someone else to clean up is hard for me to understand.

I asked one person why he threw out a can from his car one day and he said he was allowing someone to keep his job, someone that cleans up the parking lot.  Facepalm.

Chrissy


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 22, 2020, 05:38:28 pm
I've used Google Hangouts (now "Meet"?) quite a lot. It usually works well enough, though there always seems to be someone who must reconnect because of some issue. I believe it only allows about 10 people on at once, though. I've not used Zoom, but I understand entire and sizable classes meet through it.

My university extended online classes indefinitely, and some other universities already decided that all classes will be online for this semester.  The number of students exceeds 40, and maybe Google Meet can not handle it. My colleagues recommended Zoom, and I have ordered an IPad with an IPencil for an online whiteboard. And I am going to practice with it before the online class.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on April 22, 2020, 05:43:49 pm
Please dispose of your COVID-19 protective gear appropriately.

Turn gloves inside out, place in receptacle or a trash bag.  I have seen too many on parking lots.
The same goes for masks.

What I have never understood is all the trash people leave on parking lots, along roads, and in drive through lanes.  It is like they think the world is a big garbage can.  Why there are so many bottles, drink cups, bags, cans, and now COVID-19 waste left for someone else to clean up is hard for me to understand.

I asked one person why he threw out a can from his car one day and he said he was allowing someone to keep his job, someone that cleans up the parking lot.  Facepalm.

Chrissy

@ChrissyRyan
Dear Chrissy:
I hear you and agree with you....   some people are just slobs, expecting everyone else to clean up after them.  Many of them live that way in their homes and yards.... or just look at their vehicles... most likely trashed and unkempt.

In some areas there are strict laws and phone numbers that can be called if someone is seen throwing trash out of their car.    Also, I try to not watch the television program "Hoarders" .... very disgusting to see how some people live their lives...   so dirty, so unsanitary and quite unhealthy.
Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on April 22, 2020, 05:47:10 pm
My university extended online classes indefinitely, and some other universities already decided that all classes will be online for this semester.  The number of students exceeds 40, and maybe Google Meet can not handle it. My colleagues recommended Zoom, and I have ordered an IPad with an IPencil for an online whiteboard. And I am going to practice with it before the online class.

barbie~~
@barbie
Oh yes, for sure large student groups is not a good thing, it is wonderful that we all have technical advances of internet, online meetings, etc.
We continue to meet and gather together in small groups...  3, 4 or 5 people maximum while maintaining proper spacing and limited touching....   washing hands constantly and wiping down touched serfices like door knobs, desktops, etc. has become standard operating procedure.
Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 22, 2020, 05:51:22 pm
Alarming news for those who underestimate the danger of COVID-19.

Ohio man dies from coronavirus after online posts calling it 'Bulls---' and 'Political Ploy'
https://www.foxnews.com/health/ohio-man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-online-posts-calling-it-bulls-and-political-ploy

Next week, a lot of tourists will come from the mainland to my hometown, the most popular destination for holidays in S. Korea. Most of air flights and hotels are already reserved nearly fully, as people virtually can not travel abroad. The local government is extremely nervous about any possible outbreak, but the thermometer cameras in the airport are the only feasible measure to screen possible carriers of the virus. I may go to the mainland to avoid those tourists. Some relieving news is the nationwide daily number of confirmed infections has decreased to nearly 10, and yet no confirmed infection from the national parliamentary election held a week ago.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 22, 2020, 06:00:14 pm
@barbie
Oh yes, for sure large student groups is not a good thing, it is wonderful that we all have technical advances of internet, online meetings, etc.
Danielle

Yes. I  already finished two online business meetings this week, and will have another one in 2 hours at home.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on April 22, 2020, 06:10:52 pm
Alarming news for those who underestimate the danger of COVID-19.

Ohio man dies from coronavirus after online posts calling it 'Bulls---' and 'Political Ploy'
https://www.foxnews.com/health/ohio-man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-online-posts-calling-it-bulls-and-political-ploy

Next week, a lot of tourists will come from the mainland to my hometown, the most popular destination for holidays in S. Korea. Most of air flights and hotels are already reserved nearly fully, as people virtually can not travel abroad. The local government is extremely nervous about any possible outbreak, but the thermometer cameras in the airport are the only feasible measure to screen possible carriers of the virus. I may go to the mainland to avoid those tourists. Some relieving news is the nationwide daily number of confirmed infections has decreased to nearly 10, and yet no confirmed infection from the national parliamentary election held a week ago.

barbie~~

@barbie
In my large state of Alaska we have thankfully not had the same Covid19 impact that other areas have.   Most of the confirmed cases and deaths are far away from me in the two largest cities and surrounding of Anchorage and Fairbanks:

          confirmed   329     Recovered 168     Deaths 9
------------------------------------------------------
Cities: Anchorage  145       population  296,112       
          Fairbanks     63                        31,677
          Juneau        26                        32,330
          Ketchikan    16                        83,224
                          ============
     this leaves  79 for the rest of the state spread out among some smaller towns.
State population:  731,545

Here where I live in my small town there have been no confirmed cases...  this is likely because of the severe winter weather, we don't get many tourists or visitors during these times..... BUT with spring and summer and warmer weather I am hoping that the Corvid19 threat will start diminishing before the visitors start coming... usually fishing and hunting is what draws people to my area.

Stay healthy and safe,
HUGS,
Danielle

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on April 22, 2020, 07:58:37 pm
@barbie
In my large state of Alaska we have thankfully not had the same Covid19 impact that other areas have.   Most of the confirmed cases and deaths are far away from me in the two largest cities and surrounding of Anchorage and Fairbanks:

Danielle,

I thought Alaska is a rather isolated state, albeit not as much as Hawaii. Yes. S. Korea is as much isolated as Alaska, because it is blocked by N. Korea to Eurasia, like Canada to Alaska.

Here my hometown, Juju island, has had 13 confirmed cases with 8 recovered and 5 still in self-isolation, among the total population of 695,750. 12 cases were from the mainland or other countries including the U.S., but 1 case was from the second contagion but quickly isolated. People here are still nervous about tourists from the mainland. http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200330000791

barbie~~


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on April 24, 2020, 09:34:53 pm
The number of students exceeds 40,...

I think you'd be OK with Google Meet, for now, anyway. Because of current demands, they've stretched the participant maximum to 250 with their premium version, which will continue being free until July. After that, the premium service will have a charge, though. It might be best to start with a service that your users will be able to continue for a longer term, I suppose.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 26, 2020, 11:10:14 am
Lots of people are experiencing considerable stress at this time.
If you seem to be immobilized, unable to carry out your work and normal living because of stress, and this continues beyond the point of having just a bad, frustrating day, please consider seeking out help.

There is no shame in doing so.  Telemental health may be available to you perhaps at no charge, seek out your options in your area. 

We are meant to spend time with others, that in part makes our lives better.  Being secluded and isolated can be a big downer.  Pick up the telephone and talk with a friend.  She may need the personal touch even more than you do.

Be thankful for what comfort of mind you have and give as much caring and love you can.  We will get through this. 

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on May 02, 2020, 11:07:38 am
I think you'd be OK with Google Meet, for now, anyway. Because of current demands, they've stretched the participant maximum to 250 with their premium version, which will continue being free until July. After that, the premium service will have a charge, though. It might be best to start with a service that your users will be able to continue for a longer term, I suppose.

I have finished the first sessions of Zoom class. Fortunately, the number of students for each class is less than 40, and I can use Zoom free without the 40 min restriction. Freshmen students mostly do not have a webcam, and it was nearly impossible to check what they are doing during the class. I asked them to install a webcam with a microphone, which costs less than US$20. I am going to figure out how I can teach more interactively using Zoom. Mid-term exams were already canceled, but I also should figure out how to take the final exams.

As the IPad was delivered, I am going to learn and practice with it.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Danielle Kristina on May 02, 2020, 08:12:12 pm
I recently went to a friend’s house and hung out with her.  Though she is not transgender herself, she is LGBTQ and is very accepting of trans people.  She began teaching me how to put on makeup, gave me some jewelry, and wants to help me shop for clothes, shoes, and accessories.  I got to be dressed as myself around her and to me that was liberating!  Plus, after months of isolation, it felt nice being in the company of another person.  I haven’t had that in a while.  These last few months, since the pandemic struck and social distancing and quarantining went into effect, I felt like I was doing solitary confinement for a crime I didn’t commit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 08, 2020, 07:43:03 am
I love staying at home and not having to deal with people in person.

I hate teaching online. The workload has been positively brutal, and dealing with students virtually is almost (not quite) as exhausting as dealing with them in person.

Only five weeks to go, but then I have summer school. I'm torn. I can really use the money, but I am desperate for a break. In addition, the only class I'm scheduled to teach is a different course (and at a different school) from my current one. I will have to redesign the whole thing from scratch to be an online class. But I'm so overwhelmed with my current courses that I don't see how I'll ever be ready when summer term starts. I'm drowning here.

What a mixed bag this quarter is. I'm glad to still have a job, but all I've been thinking about for days is getting a good night's sleep. Just one. Please. I am so damned tired.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 08, 2020, 08:52:36 am
Yikes, Arch. What do you teach?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 08, 2020, 06:36:37 pm
Yikes, Arch. What do you teach?

English. Specifically, freshman comp. We are supposed to assign four essays per quarter, plus a final exam and any smaller assignments (quizzes, homeworks, "in-class" activities) we need. The class I'm teaching has an unofficial policy that enables me to assign three longer essays. Heaven help me if I have to teach more online classes, and different classes, in the fall.

Grading essays online is just vicious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 08, 2020, 08:48:07 pm
Arch, I used to fix dissertations for Ivy League students. It was brutal. Just an hour of fixing their mistakes would drain my brain. At least I didn't have to explain why they erred, as you would as a teacher. I whimper for you!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on May 08, 2020, 09:28:24 pm
Arch, I used to fix dissertations for Ivy League students. It was brutal. Just an hour of fixing their mistakes would drain m brain. At least I didn't have to explain why they erred, as you would as a teacher. I whimper for you!


@Oldandcreaky

Manny peepel kan’t right well, and they kan’t spell well ether.   :)

Some can write well and spell well; but, because they are lazy or they choose to spend much more of their time and brainpower on other things, their writings are not usually of high quality. 

Good writing usually takes considerable effort, and much of it requires good research, reading, synthesizing, organizational, and time management skills.  I rewrite a lot (of my writings) as the writing is better with editing and the application of additional thought.  Newer resources and related readings inform the writing also.

Christine
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 08, 2020, 09:46:46 pm
Christine, my clients weren't challenged by spelling, but by concision. They dispatched ten words to do the work of five, which in a single sentence is no biggie, but in thousands of sentences produces a thicket of superfluous syllables. If you can't get to the point in a sentence or two, you don't have a point. Einstein's dissertation was 26 words. It was rejected as too short, so he added a single sentence, resubmitted, and it was accepted. If I'd been his editor, I would have pared it to 20 pages.  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on May 08, 2020, 09:52:53 pm
Christine, my clients weren't challenged by spelling, but by concision. They dispatched ten words to do the work of five, which in a single sentence is no biggie, but in thousands of sentences produces a thicket of superfluous syllables. If you can't get to the point in a sentence or two, you don't have a point. Einstein's dissertation was 26 words. It was rejected as too short, so he added a single word, resubmitted, and it was accepted. If I'd been his editor, I would have pared it to 20 pages.  ;D


I understand.   Understood.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on May 08, 2020, 11:16:27 pm
Arch, I used to fix dissertations for Ivy League students. It was brutal. Just an hour of fixing their mistakes would drain my brain. At least I didn't have to explain why they erred, as you would as a teacher. I whimper for you!

My impression is that the literacy rate per se of S. Korea is higher than that of the U.S., but many educated people in the US can write far better than those in S. Korea.

I have read readers' comments in the NY Times and the Washington Post, and most readers there are surprisingly excellent writers, but I rarely see those well-written comments in Korean news sites. Even here in susans.org, some people are superb writers, expressing some concepts that I have never been able to formulate, making me wonder whether it is due to the differences between English and Korean. Korean is a kind of natural language, and I think it has some merit in expressing various emotions while English is nice at writing logically.  For example, the Korean language has a rich inventory of ideophones: https://www.journal-labphon.org/articles/10.5334/labphon.53/ whereas English has the richest vocabulary in nouns: https://www.wikipedia.org/

Admittedly, any generalization is dangerous, but I think educated people in the Indo-European sphere write better than in the Altaic.

barbie~~


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 08, 2020, 11:51:45 pm
I would point out that readers of the NY Times and the WaPo may be a cut above the average. Certainly than the letter writers to my local newspaper. And need I mention the astronomically high level of the people here on Susan's? It is a great group of people anyway, no matter their language.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 09, 2020, 01:14:35 am
They dispatched ten words to do the work of five....If you can't get to the point in a sentence or two, you don't have a point.

Sometimes I write long emails because I don't have the time to write short ones.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 09, 2020, 05:41:34 am
Sometimes I write long emails because I don't have the time to write short ones.

PASCAL!!!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 09, 2020, 05:44:52 am
I am providing copious feedback, but I could save myself a lot of time if I simply said, "You haven't answered the question, your paragraphs are incomplete or chaotic, you need to review my sources handout, and you should have edited more. Nice title, though."

Minus the last sentence, I could have said pretty much this same thing for about three-quarters of these essays. On one or two essays, I think that this message would have summed things up nicely: "?"
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 09, 2020, 06:43:06 am
Sometimes I write long emails because I don't have the time to write short ones.

Ha! ^Here's^ a writer who understands the challenge of precision.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 09, 2020, 06:45:03 am
I am providing copious feedback, but I could save myself a lot of time if I simply said, "You haven't answered the question, your paragraphs are incomplete or chaotic, you need to review my sources handout, and you should have edited more. Nice title, though."

Minus the last sentence, I could have said pretty much this same thing for about three-quarters of these essays. On one or two essays, I think that this message would have summed things up nicely: "?"

Copious feedback, eh? Now I know you to be a generous teacher. Your students are lucky.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 09, 2020, 06:50:47 am
My impression is that the literacy rate per se of S. Korea is higher than that of the U.S., but many educated people in the US can write far better than those in S. Korea.

I have read readers' comments in the NY Times and the Washington Post, and most readers there are surprisingly excellent writers, but I rarely see those well-written comments in Korean news sites. Even here in susans.org, some people are superb writers, expressing some concepts that I have never been able to formulate, making me wonder whether it is due to the differences between English and Korean. Korean is a kind of natural language, and I think it has some merit in expressing various emotions while English is nice at writing logically.  For example, the Korean language has a rich inventory of ideophones: https://www.journal-labphon.org/articles/10.5334/labphon.53/ whereas English has the richest vocabulary in nouns: https://www.wikipedia.org/

Admittedly, any generalization is dangerous, but I think educated people in the Indo-European sphere write better than in the Altaic.

barbie~~

Randy is right about the WaPo and NYT readership being a cut above average. I'm also a writing teacher and I told my students that good writing comes from good observation (Do you witness well enough to tell the tale?) and good listening (Do you have an ear for the possibilities of language?). 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 09, 2020, 09:58:29 am
Copious feedback, eh? Now I know you to be a generous teacher. Your students are lucky.

Considering that only a few earned passing grades, they won't think so.

They should. Honestly, the department rubric dictates that I should have given lower than not-quite-passing scores, but I decided to creatively interpret the criteria. Most people will revise anyway. One more round of essays--unplanned--for me to grade, but at least I won't have to comment on them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 09, 2020, 11:01:37 am
Quote
Considering that only a few earned passing grades, they won't think so.

Some will think so. I studied at a college that graded on the bell curve and I loved it, for an "A" really meant something.

Then, when I started writing under editors, who mostly didn't bother with praise, only correction, I loved that even more. 

Hopefully, you have a few students who care more about learning than being fluffed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 09, 2020, 08:46:59 pm
I just want them to think well, write clearly, and research competently--and have a successful and even fun class, of course.

Although my job is predicated on the democratization of higher education, I have mixed feelings about such practices.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on May 09, 2020, 09:09:25 pm
Quote
Although my job is predicated on the democratization of higher education, I have mixed feelings about such practices.

Do tell!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 09, 2020, 10:03:36 pm


Considering that only a few earned passing grades, they won't think so.

You ever consider handing an essay back with a failing grade and the comment, "Silence is golden from here on out?"

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on May 10, 2020, 12:15:16 pm
I would point out that readers of the NY Times and the WaPo may be a cut above the average. Certainly than the letter writers to my local newspaper. And need I mention the astronomically high level of the people here on Susan's? It is a great group of people anyway, no matter their language.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Yes. I know that readers of the NYT and the WaPo are above average in reading and writing. Here in S. Korea, there are a few media sites similar to the two newspaper companies, but the comments there are mostly short. I know sometimes a short comment and or an aphorism can be more powerful than a grandiose one in delivering a message. But, there are few people here who can write a logical essay. Of course, there are more famous novelists here who are ingenious in observing and describing human emotion.

I teach in a university and I see many professors here do not write well. Even simply they just don't write. I wondered how they can teach graduate students. In the U.S., I saw most professors were excellent writers and some of them were also excellent presenters. The reason I thought was that students in the U.S. start writing essays from the 4-th grade of the elementary school, not to mention college students. Here, students seldom practice writing, and they just exchange short texts through their phones. In my case, I started writing a diary or essay when I was a kid, and I remember that some professors said, despite some minor grammatic errors, my writing skill is basically nice compared with the average American graduate students when I started my Ph.D. course in the U.S. But I have always suffered from the lack of English vocabulary in expressing my idea.

Anyway, most of my teaching for graduate students is regarding scientific writing in Korean or English. If a student can write well an essay in Korean, then it is far easier for me to teach him/her writing a scientific paper in English.

As very few people write scientific essays in my research area, I myself sometimes should do it. For example, nowadays I regularly write essays for the public through a monthly magazine here.
http://www.hdhy.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=11679
(you may try Google translator to guess the story at least partially)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 11, 2020, 01:37:11 am
You ever consider handing an essay back with a failing grade and the comment, "Silence is golden from here on out?"

After many years in this profession, I have had a number of thoughts that others might think mean. Among them is "Are you sure you want to go to college?" I constantly have such thoughts about my community college students, but even some of my uni students seem to invite the question.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 12, 2020, 12:10:16 am
I'm lucky to be able to continue working through the pandemic, but I'm paying a price. I am sort of praying that my summer class is canceled, but the enrollment has picked up a little bit, and we still have five weeks to go. I'm behind with my current classes and have no time to prepare for summer session, yet I must find the time. Unfortunately, I spend too much time struggling with my psychological state and a bunch of inconvenient physical ailments--not to mention the whole redesign-the-class-as-I-go routine, which is getting very, very old.

I don't want to go back to face-to-face teaching too soon, but I don't see how I can survive fall term if I have to teach online. I'm teaching my light quarter right now; the workload will double in the fall.

I guess these issues are unique to my situation, but I'm wondering how many other working people are at the end of their tether. I sometimes just crash and can't work--and then I'm even further behind. Gah.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 12, 2020, 12:59:29 am
I'm wondering how many other working people are at the end of their tether. I sometimes just crash and can't work--and then I'm even further behind. Gah.

I remember that one of the hardest career transitions I ever had to make was going from being mostly in an office setting with some remote work to instantly having to work 100% from home.

Drove me up the wall. Required entirely new styles of communication, had to work crazy hours because I wasn't as productive, and got incredibly lonesome. Was p miserable at first. Took some months to start to get into a groove. Your feelings sound about right to me.

Finally did take to working from home. Now I wouldn't have it any other way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 14, 2020, 09:48:24 pm
At least the cases in the U.S. seem to be on a downward trend. On the other hand, areas that are "reopening" too soon are seeing spikes. And, of course, the virus is expected to recur.

I've been informed by one of my schools that fall semester will be online. I'm still waiting to hear from the other school.

I am determined to meet the challenge . . . at the moment, anyway. I hate those times when I crash and can't feel hopeful or determined. As long as they don't last, I think I'll be okay.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on May 15, 2020, 09:52:36 am
Society is between a rock and a hard place. After a couple of months of business closings and staying at home people are trying to go back to normal activities even though things are basically the same. The next months are probably going to be a roller coaster-like fluctuations of epidemic increases and government reactions.

Some experts think there may not be a sharp end to the epidemic. We may have to gradually learn to more or less manage it the way we did with AIDs, while treatments gradually improve over the years.

I had some auto work done this week at two different service centers. At neither place were any employees wearing masks-- not even the counter clerks. I'm wearing a mask whenever I leave the house for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on May 15, 2020, 11:03:47 am
This will indeed be a lot like the story of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in that in the US the political party in power believes in reality that follows ideology. The main difference between then and now, is then, neither political party was well inclined to the gay people who were suffering, also it seems unlikely Trump will survive re-election so that where his unwavering support in the republican senate saved him from being ousted after being impeached, now his actions will come home to roost.

You're smart to keep a mask on whenever interacting with people outside your core circle, outbreaks are inevitable.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: randim on May 15, 2020, 11:18:11 am
I think managing it is the key.  We are going to have to accept a much higher level of risk in our daily lives, and we need to learn to observe sensible precautions like masks and hand-washing.  Over time a vaccine may be available, and I suppose we will eventually develop herd immunity, though that could be a long, bloody time coming.  Some things that we cherish may need to be suspended for a prolonged period of time -- spectator events (theatre, sports, etc.), restaurant dining, frequent travel, etc..  There will be severe economic impact from this regardless of the public policy choices made.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on May 15, 2020, 11:22:51 am
At least the cases in the U.S. seem to be on a downward trend. On the other hand, areas that are "reopening" too soon are seeing spikes. And, of course, the virus is expected to recur.

I've been informed by one of my schools that fall semester will be online. I'm still waiting to hear from the other school.

I am determined to meet the challenge . . . at the moment, anyway. I hate those times when I crash and can't feel hopeful or determined. As long as they don't last, I think I'll be okay.

It's best to do what we can to keep our spirits up.

Unfortunately looking at the US as a whole doesn't tell the picture. Remove NYC, Detroit and New Orleans, the three hardest-hit cities and you see that the rest of the country is still increasing. So yes, reopening is going to cause an increase in cases.

My area was also an epicenter and we've now nearly got it under control. We're also one of the most population-dense areas of the US and so at far greater risk. However people are being very good about limiting travel (you can see this in maps of the entire country, which areas are (I would say prematurely) seeing people no longer staying home.

Also locally, you can see that cities and counties that have both been hit hard and taken restrictions seriously have indeed stemmed the growth. Sadly that macrocosm I mentioned above is repeated in my area. Our urban areas that were most at-risk have pretty well flattened the curve, while  just 20 miles away, transmission has slowed less in some places and barely at all in others.

Herd immunity will not be a difficult thing with a vaccine in hand, unfortunately the earliest date for that is early next year, it could take until 2022. In the meantime, contact tracing (which can be done without violating people's privacy) will be the primary tool of safely managing re-opening.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: DeniseGrace on May 15, 2020, 03:16:41 pm
No confirmation that Covid-19 can be passed sexually. However, a Chinese study did find the anti-bodies in semen
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on May 15, 2020, 11:24:17 pm
Politicizing an epidemic is always dangerous, but it has happened around the world through the human civilization history since the neolithic age. Scapegoat has been ubiquitous.

I am not so much optimistic on the outlook of the coronavirus. It is still uncertain whether my daughter can go to the high school for the first time on May 27 as scheduled. The story of vaccine is the best scenario, which I am skeptical about.

Here in S. Korea, small scale, but explosive outbreaks repeatedly happen, and the government hurries to subdue them. It is like endless fighting against wild fires. Still, the government adopt ad hoc countermeasures and regulations by trials and errors. It is an adaptation process.

I think online lecture, wearing a mask, avoiding closed spaces, and etc will be a new norm for a few years. Overseas trip would be virtually impossible, but my son in California wishes to come home, and I sent an airline ticket to him. Self-isolating at home for 2 weeks after arrival is mandatory for him. We will see how long he should stay here. At least, his living cost is less here than in California.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 16, 2020, 12:19:13 am
Yes I agree it looks like a long term adaptation strategy is what will be needed.

If everyone wears a mask and maintains distancing, we will be much closer to mitigation. That's mainly what they are doing in China and their cases have gone way down, despite reopening the country. Unfortunately few people use masks here in my conservative area. We wear them ourselves, but a lot of the benefit is in protecting others more than yourself.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: JanePlain on May 18, 2020, 02:37:13 pm
My state (Minnesota) has decided its more important to deal with the economy then Covid19.  I expect after a week of having more things open some state level genius will say "No spike in cases" (never mind it takes 2 weeks to show symptoms)  Sometimes it helps to give some numbers.  Forget the number diagnosed or the number tested.  Just ponder the dead.  Add up US soldiers who died in the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghan wars (combined) and your still short of the current US dead.  World wide it just becomes so depressing I can't do an analogy.  I was just a kid but when I think of the Vietnam War I think of how everyone knew someone that died or came home shot up. 

The last time I went to the grocery store (during lockdown) more then half the people clearly didn't do anything (masks, gloves etc) and today the Gov has decided to reopen the economy.  Then on public radio I listened to some dolt say how starvation killed a lot of people and we threw out enough people to feed them.  So? we should ignore the pandemic?  More reports (Now from the Navy) that sailors who were infected once have been reinfected.  There has been a question about this which no one seems to think is important.  SIGH....  It seems like many very basic questions are still out there and no one is answering them and numbers mean nothing.

Search for Covid19 and worldometer.  You can look at some graphs that show how the USA has done an spectacularly bad job of contraining the Virus compared to.... Everywhere else.  If you look at the graphs of infections and deaths they all seem to me to be straight lines going up at around a 45 degree angle.  If you don't trust this web site I urge you to check out the figures at other web sites but beware some will default to logarithmic scale where thngs look a little (not much) better.  Not many people have even heard of the 1918 Pandemic because it was supressed news because of WWI but I think its worth study.

One last comment then I'm done.  In previous pandemics the ages of those the Virus was most deadly to changed because the Virus underwent mutations.  I've only heard it reported once that there is already a new mutation. If true it wouldn't be the first time.   I'm praying for this to just stop and all of you to be well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on May 18, 2020, 02:54:58 pm
I've re-stocked on canned food.  Three dozen cans of meat.  Just in case this doesn't end well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 18, 2020, 07:30:18 pm
The virus has mutated multiple times since early days, but most mutations are not very significant. However they think the European strain which was primarily what hit New York is a little more virulent than the direct from Wuhan strain which came in through Seattle.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on May 18, 2020, 07:46:30 pm
I've re-stocked on canned food.  Three dozen cans of meat.  Just in case this doesn't end well.


Was this SPAM?


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 18, 2020, 08:05:54 pm

Was this SPAM?


Chrissy
If I ate Spam it would not end well

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 18, 2020, 08:21:56 pm
The virus has mutated multiple times since early days, but most mutations are not very significant.

I recently read a virologist saying much the same thing. She said that viruses mutate frequently; that almost all mutations are irrelevant; that most of the rest are bad for the virus, not for us; that only a few of the remainder ever make anything worse for us, and that "worse" is a matter of degree.

To me this makes sense. Of the kajillions of viruses in our biome, only a few are tuned just right to be able to get past our multilayer immune system. Mess with the codes that can do that at your peril.

Case in point, the strain that came in via Europe. It seems to be slightly outcompeting its West Coast cousin. It hasn't replaced its West Coast cousin. My simplistic conclusion would be that it sounds more virulent, but not by much, and it's a matter of degree.

Am I looking at this the right way?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on May 18, 2020, 08:57:54 pm
I have purposefully paid great attention to when I want to touch my face, with all of this attention given to the Covid-19.  I can say that I never have touched my face when wearing personal protection gloves or masks.   That is good.

But what about when at home, when there is not a significant danger of infecting myself by face touching?  I noticed that there is a tendency to want to scratch or rub my face at times BUT if I simply tell myself not to, I will not.  Why does that not always work with eating chocolate? 

I have noticed that instead of touching my face now, when I get that urge to do so, I will instead put my hair behind my ears and say, itch please go away!  If the feeling persists that I must rub my eyes or scratch my neck or nose or forehead, I will go wash my face or take a shower.  I think that for the time being it is important to keep my hands off my face.

Be safe out there!

Chrissy

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on May 18, 2020, 10:04:53 pm
Chrissy, just wash your hands before touching your face. Also, wearing a mask is a good reminder to not touch your face when you're out.

Randy, yes, all things mutate, covid19 changes often enough to make tracing easy, however it mutates much less often than influenza.

There's no (material) difference in the effects of different versions of covid19, one version is not more virulent than another. However we can figure out transmission history and the vectors aren't surprising, e.g. NYC has a huge and dense population and a *lot* of people travel to / from there. Hence a lot of areas can trace their outbreaks to NYC.

That's not different from the well known specific vectoring incidents, such as a party in Connecticut which spread in a lot of directions or the February international meeting held by Biogen in my area which spawned 80 very early local cases..
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on May 19, 2020, 01:45:30 am
My state (Minnesota) has decided its more important to deal with the economy then Covid19.  I expect after a week of having more things open some state level genius will say "No spike in cases" (never mind it takes 2 weeks to show symptoms)  Sometimes it helps to give some numbers.  Forget the number diagnosed or the number tested.  Just ponder the dead.  Add up US soldiers who died in the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghan wars (combined) and your still short of the current US dead.  World wide it just becomes so depressing I can't do an analogy.  I was just a kid but when I think of the Vietnam War I think of how everyone knew someone that died or came home shot up. 

The last time I went to the grocery store (during lockdown) more then half the people clearly didn't do anything (masks, gloves etc) and today the Gov has decided to reopen the economy.  Then on public radio I listened to some dolt say how starvation killed a lot of people and we threw out enough people to feed them.  So? we should ignore the pandemic?  More reports (Now from the Navy) that sailors who were infected once have been reinfected.  There has been a question about this which no one seems to think is important.  SIGH....  It seems like many very basic questions are still out there and no one is answering them and numbers mean nothing.

Search for Covid19 and worldometer.  You can look at some graphs that show how the USA has done an spectacularly bad job of contraining the Virus compared to.... Everywhere else.  If you look at the graphs of infections and deaths they all seem to me to be straight lines going up at around a 45 degree angle.  If you don't trust this web site I urge you to check out the figures at other web sites but beware some will default to logarithmic scale where thngs look a little (not much) better.  Not many people have even heard of the 1918 Pandemic because it was supressed news because of WWI but I think its worth study.

One last comment then I'm done.  In previous pandemics the ages of those the Virus was most deadly to changed because the Virus underwent mutations.  I've only heard it reported once that there is already a new mutation. If true it wouldn't be the first time.   I'm praying for this to just stop and all of you to be well.

Has it come to cannibalism now?  :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on May 23, 2020, 07:42:00 pm
Has it come to cannibalism now?  :laugh:

SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 23, 2020, 08:10:17 pm
SOYLENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!!!
/me gingerly puts jar of Trader Joe's Soylent Green back on the shelf

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on May 24, 2020, 12:28:49 pm
@Arch  @Battle Goddess  @Devlyn

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/798/737/3c1.jpg)

Danielle
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 24, 2020, 09:02:07 pm


@Arch  @Battle Goddess  @Devlyn

(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/798/737/3c1.jpg)

Danielle

Best joke of the week

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 01, 2020, 12:30:05 pm
It came on overnight, my morning coffee was just a hot drink. I like it sweet, but it wasn't there at all. Then at lunch there was no smell or taste at all. It lasted a couple of days, then coffee was sweet again one morning.
From an article in today's WSJ:

"Out of 417 patients who suffered mild to moderate forms of Covid-19 in Europe, 88% and 86% reported taste and smell dysfunctions, respectively, according to a study published in April in the European Archives of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology.

Most patients said they couldn’t taste or smell even after other symptoms were gone. Preliminary data showed at least a quarter of people regained their ability to taste and smell within two weeks of other symptoms dissipating. The study said long-term data are needed to assess how long this can last in people who didn’t report an improvement."



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on June 01, 2020, 02:48:50 pm
It came on overnight, my morning coffee was just a hot drink. I like it sweet, but it wasn't there at all. Then at lunch there was no smell or taste at all. It lasted a couple of days, then coffee was sweet again one morning.
From an article in today's WSJ:

"Out of 417 patients who suffered mild to moderate forms of Covid-19 in Europe, 88% and 86% reported taste and smell dysfunctions, respectively, according to a study published in April in the European Archives of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology.

Most patients said they couldn’t taste or smell even after other symptoms were gone. Preliminary data showed at least a quarter of people regained their ability to taste and smell within two weeks of other symptoms dissipating. The study said long-term data are needed to assess how long this can last in people who didn’t report an improvement."



Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

I've been filling out a daily Covid symptoms tracker app for a study. About a week ago the daily questions included some about taking HRT.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on June 01, 2020, 04:20:09 pm
There is not that much talk about COVID in the USA the last few days, it is mostly about the justifiable peaceful protests across the nation.  Who would have thought a week ago that would be the case?

There is also much talk about those criminals who are NOT the peaceful protesters but who are oddballs behaving as hoodlums, thieves, and arsonists.


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Arch on June 02, 2020, 12:47:08 pm
I'll bet all of these demonstrations cause a spike in cases. If so, I hope it's small. I suppose we'll know more by the end of the week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 03, 2020, 03:17:57 pm
My eldest son returned from Los Angeles 3 days ago. His virus test result was negative, but staying at home for 2 weeks is anyway mandatory. An aid package containing water, masks and food was delivered next day, and it looks enough for 2 weeks. I am going to consume the package.

My daughter went to her high school for the first time yesterday. She seemed to have had some trouble with her teacher.

I am glad that my son came here healthy. He said to me that nowadays protests are more serious than the covid-19 in LA. I urged him to say here until the US economy becomes stabilized enough for him to be able to work and earn money there. He said he learned carpentry from the internet to repair the house while locking down there for 3 months. He is going to touch up my house during the stay for 2 weeks. I let him order the necessary tools from the internet.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on June 03, 2020, 03:26:19 pm
Barbie, I've missed your posts! Happy to read an update!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 03, 2020, 03:58:18 pm
Barbie, I've missed your posts! Happy to read an update!

Thanks! I have kept reading your new posts.

Finally, I finished setting up for Zoom class.

Hardware: A PC with 2 monitors, Galaxy Tab with a USB wire, and a smartphone. A total of 4 screens.
Software: Zoom, Mobizen, and Chrome remote desktop (from Tab to PC) https://remotedesktop.google.com/access/

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49968396367_cece8c2963_b.jpg)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49968158796_89316ed1c4_b.jpg)

Mobizen is nice because it supports USB connection (Wi-fi connection is unstable and slow).
I watch my smartphone screen to check what the students actually see by logging in Zoom with another account.
Chrome remote desktop is to capture the PC screen within the Tab, making notes and marks, then display it to Zoom.

Complicated, but I am already adapted to the new norm defined by the covid-19. I am going to replace as many as face-to-face meetings with remote ones, saving time and money.

One institute repeatedly urged me to attend a face-to-face meeting, but I insisted on online meeting. Now they say they are preparing and setting up for me to join the meeting through Zoom. Without Zoom, I have to spend the whole day to present for just 20 minutes with 10 minute Q/A.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on June 03, 2020, 04:41:46 pm
Whoa, Barbie? Do you possess the technical expertise to configure all that yourself? If so, so impressive!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 03, 2020, 10:35:55 pm
Whoa, Barbie? Do you possess the technical expertise to configure all that yourself? If so, so impressive!

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49969057601_69a1fc50d7_b.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on June 04, 2020, 06:14:48 am
So, you're got brains, beauty, and a sense of humor too!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on June 04, 2020, 06:56:35 am
So, you're got brains, beauty, and a sense of humor too!

For myself, sometimes, two out of three isn't bad.  :-X  :laugh:
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Ellie_Arroway on June 04, 2020, 07:24:25 am
For myself, sometimes, two out of three isn't bad.  :-X  :laugh:

Nah, you've definitely got a sense of humour!  ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 04, 2020, 07:46:26 am
Nah, you've definitely got a sense of humour!  ;D
Unsure that came out as encouraging as you meant it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on June 04, 2020, 07:53:10 am
Nah, you've definitely got a sense of humour!  ;D
Unsure that came out as encouraging as you meant it.

I read it as three out of three ain't bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Ellie_Arroway on June 04, 2020, 11:49:24 am
Unsure that came out as encouraging as you meant it.

It was meant as, well, actually, Rakel, you do have the three; you've just shown that by having the sense of humour. :) I do take your point, though!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 04, 2020, 03:36:16 pm
So, you're got brains, beauty, and a sense of humor too!

Thanks!

A drawback is that I am getting old. Yesterday night, I drank a lot with my friends in the restaurant of my another friend. One said I suddenly look older, but I do not care so much.

A professor from another department came to my office with his teaching assistant to learn how to set up and use Zoom, after reading my post and watching some photos on Facebook. I taught him step by step. He also asked the same question: how could you do that? My answer was the same. And yesterday, he called me several times on the phone to ask more questions to finally set up his own Zoom classes. His final question was how to avoid resonant sounds during Zoom class, and I replied you have better mute the speakers, instead ask students whether the sound is OK.

barbie~~

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on June 04, 2020, 04:55:20 pm
Barbie, to be frank, I think growing old is harder for pretty women like you. Those who are beautiful have more to lose. However, you're more than brains. You are smart and professionally accomplished and those qualities age well.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 04, 2020, 09:47:39 pm
Just finished a remote meeting from Seoul. I saved a lot of money and time.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49972284251_4b9b358ed5_b.jpg)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on June 05, 2020, 09:32:13 am
Just finished a remote meeting from Seoul. I saved a lot of money and time.

Nice setup-- with two monitors and two webcams, it appears.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 05, 2020, 02:46:05 pm
Nice setup-- with two monitors and two webcams, it appears.

Yes.

Actually, 6 screens and 4 webcams are available, too complex to handle.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49974618031_0521bcc558_b.jpg)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49974097963_4364ceab07_b.jpg)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49974877567_d598bfd00b_b.jpg)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on June 13, 2020, 08:06:59 am
I heard that a transparent but effective against viruses face mask is under development.
Look for the related articles on the Internet.

That may make wearing the masks more appealing to some.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on June 13, 2020, 08:24:46 am
Meet the Transgender Doctor Leading Pennsylvania's COVID-19 Response



https://www.advocate.com/health/2020/3/30/meet-transgender-doctor-leading-pennsylvanias-covid-19-response
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 15, 2020, 01:26:15 pm

...Americans, with our strongly ingrained culture of personal liberty, are all too likely to defy the government on general principles. Sniping between the two parties when we're all in this together doesn't help. That people get their news from social media instead of responsible sources may be the worst problem of all.

I personally was disheartened by the President's speech the other day in its several references to the virus being from abroad. Others in his party have been trying to do the same thing. A virus knows no nation.... Casting a virus in terms of The Other is useless. AIDS was not a Gay Plague. Viruses don't discriminate on minority status, but they do discriminate on behaviors.

Jeebus. Can I call it, or can I call it? Three months later, and look how different societies have chosen to handle the Virus. China discovers a hundred cases in Beijing this week and puts the area into lockdown. They plan to have tested a couple hundred thousand folks by tomorrow. In the USA, people get mad at each other over whether one ought to wear a mask.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: SadieBlake on June 15, 2020, 04:42:37 pm
Jeebus. Can I call it, or can I call it? Three months later, and look how different societies have chosen to handle the Virus. China discovers a hundred cases in Beijing this week and puts the area into lockdown. They plan to have tested a couple hundred thousand folks by tomorrow. In the USA, people get mad at each other over whether one ought to wear a mask.

In fairness the difference between China and the US (especially under trump) isn't exactly rocket science.

Locally we were a serious hotspot because of population density and a high rate off international travel (one corporate meeting in my city vectored an initial superevent.

Because we're also a population that quickly comprehended the seriousness, we've flattened the curve to near zero.

You hardly see anyone around here not wearing a mask.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: lulita on June 23, 2020, 08:47:21 pm
I have a question...
How do we clean our jeans?
They say you cannot go and wash your jeans everytime you use. But I never had any information about how to sanitize my jeans in this coronavirus outbreak.

Can I spray alcohol in it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 23, 2020, 09:14:44 pm
I have a question...
How do we clean our jeans?
They say you cannot go and wash your jeans everytime you use. But I never had any information about how to sanitize my jeans in this coronavirus outbreak.

Can I spray alcohol in it?
You can, but I betcha your washing machine will do a better job penetrating the material than an alcohol spritz. Why not just take your jeans off when you get home, put them in a corner, and leave them there until you want to go out again? Just don't wear them inside until you wash them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on June 23, 2020, 09:27:49 pm
I store my jeans in a cardboard box between outings.  Even though it is summer, the temperature has been mild when I go out at 8AM to buy groceries.  Storing it in a box also prevents the cat from using my clothes as a blanket.

Marion
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: lulita on June 24, 2020, 11:49:13 pm
Yeah I was planning to leave inside my wardrobe in a place that I don't use. But using a cardboard box is a good ideia. Thanks for the tips Maid Marion and Battle Goddess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 25, 2020, 06:12:13 pm
Yeah I was planning to leave inside my wardrobe in a place that I don't use. But using a cardboard box is a good ideia. Thanks for the tips Maid Marion and Battle Goddess.

(https://i.insider.com/5e8cdb448427e964fd756ce6)

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on January 19, 2021, 12:32:04 pm
Funny old world, ain't it?

This thread was so active during the first wave of the virus when so many people died. 30,000 or more! The country virtually shut down to get hold of this terrible plague. "Flatten the curve," we all chanted at one another!

As Covid deaths in the USA exceed WWII combat deaths and are predicted to surpass Civil War levels by mid-February, it was interesting to scroll through our thoughts back then. Man, were we wrong. I personally never foresaw a simple public health issue being turned into a cultural struggle flashpoint, but then again, I never thought I'd see the country my family has served for centuries be threatened by a Knucklehead Revolution.

None of us deserves criticism from me for what we said back then except for me. I sure dropped a few howlers.





I think the key here is to point out that Italy only recognized the size of the outbreak because the Lombard public health system ignored national recommendations and started testing everyone, not just the very ill. Other provinces actually complained because they thought it made things look bad.

I believe this is what Tony Fauci is talking about when he says things are going to get worse in the USA. The absence of data is hampering a true assessment of the scale of the outbreak, so there's no real way to predict whether or when things will get out of hand. Prudence dictates preparing for the worst and praying for the best.


At least Fauci knew what he was talking about. I don't know whether he's been soft-pedaling his predictions because he figured we couldn't take it, but very early on he predicted as many as 100,000 deaths, and I was shocked that a serious scientist thought it could ever get that bad. Fauci does have a habit of raising the awfulness of his predictions as the situation gets more and more out of control. Maybe back in March he couldn't conceive of the current awfulness.

Meanwhile, Italy ended up pulling a USA. They had an amazingly strict lockdown in March - children weren't even allowed to go outside to play - and they were massively successful in quelling their outbreak. Infections tanked. Italy reopened. They lightened restrictions. People stopped worrying. They took liberties. Rich folks did things they shouldn't have and rubbed it in everyone else's faces. Resentment spiked. Everyone else started doing things they shouldn't. Infections started shooting up again. The authorities tried imposing curfews. There were riots in Naples and Rome with people throwing molotov cocktails at the cops. I couldn't take it anymore and gave up reading the Italian newspapers. If folks were going to be that dumb, I figured I could watch people being just as dumb on American TV.




I'm bracing for the worst and I've feared the worst all along. This will be a demographic changer and world changer. I expect there will be millions less of us in a few weeks.

Goodness, let's hope not! And don't worry, it won't happen, at least not in the USA.



Blew that one.



One American in a thousand is dead of Covid.


Some subpopulations (older folks, people of color) crossed that threshold long ago.


At current projections, it’ll be two Americans in a thousand come sometime in April.





When I think of demographic catastrophes, my head usually goes to things like expected years of life lost and negative effects on live births per woman. A plague that confined itself to killing people late in life who were beyond reproductive age would be grievous, but it wouldn't necessarily have a huge long-term effect on core population growth.

The Spanish Flu killed young people in peak reproductive age, and you can see the chunk it took out of demographic metrics and its long-term effects on population. Ditto the Civil War, which slew a generation of young men. I remember my great-grandmother telling harrowing stories of how hard it was in their corner of the hills for a girl to get married after the war, and the insalubrious workarounds that people resorted to. Don't ask.

But at some point, once so many people die, you gotta call a gravedigger's spade a gravedigger's spade.

Is Covid a demographic catastrophe? Lord, yes. My blinkered, academic, analytic perspective was completely inadequate for the monstrosity this thing has mushroomed into. We in the USA allowed a public health catastrophe to turn into a political catastrophe, and now one in a thousand of us (and counting) is dead.

I was an idiot.




I'll preface this by saying I'm writing from the perspective of a U.S. citizen living in the USA….

Americans, with our strongly ingrained culture of personal liberty, are all too likely to defy the government on general principles. Sniping between the two parties when we're all in this together doesn't help. That people get their news from social media instead of responsible sources may be the worst problem of all.

I personally was disheartened by the President's speech the other day in its several references to the virus being from abroad. Others in his party have been trying to do the same thing. A virus knows no nation. Xenophobia is always dumb…. For us it's like locking the barn door after the horse trampled you on its way out. Casting a virus in terms of The Other is useless. AIDS was not a Gay Plague. Viruses don't discriminate on minority status, but they do discriminate on behaviors.



Yeah.

Sadly, both the worst part and the most ignorant part of this prediction came true.

Appears to me that Americans defied half the government. Some of us defied one half, and the rest of us defied the other half. So did the government itself.

Worse, this virus viciously discriminated on minority status. Where I live, Black Americans are about one-third of the population but half of Covid infections and two-thirds of Covid deaths. Similar rates for Hispanic Americans. Go ahead and point to variables such as the stress associated with generally lower income, worse access to worse health care, bad city services and higher local crime rates, whatever. No doubt they play a part, major or minor. There’ll be studies for years and years trying to tease all that stuff out. Not sure anyone is collecting data for Transgender Americans, but you know it can’t be good.

The simple fact, though, is that a lot of Americans are systematically <removed>, and that’s unamerican.



"I was an idiot" doesn’t even begin to cover it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on January 20, 2021, 03:34:13 pm
BG, that's an interesting retrospective. I don't think you were as wrong as you give yourself credit for; none of us had all that much information back then (which has never impeded me  :D )

You're right about minorities and discriminated-against populations. It's not their behaviors in general, it's their circumstances. Not least of which being that many of these folks work in service industries where their physical presence is required to do their jobs. Our lengthy and shameful history of systemic racism, misogynism (word?) and other -isms are a large part of why certain people are at greater risk, aside from their chronological age. To quote an author I heard on the radio yesterday, "it's hard to pull yourself up by the bootstraps when you don't have any boots."
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on February 07, 2021, 02:21:14 pm
The 3rd wave came here last December. It is now nearly under control after a huge economic loss, especially from restaurants and bars. Now I realize that the Chinese approach was the best: Lockdown for everybody without exception. Here in S. Korea, regulations were not equal and varied with the type of business including religious worships, causing severe complaints from those who were regulated more. For example, restaurants and bars should close by 9 PM while other stores can open for 24 hours.

Yesterday I came from Busan to Jeju island, my home, by air flight. The fare was just ca. US$ 8, and the receipt showed the real airfare excluding tax and other charges was just US$3. It used to be about US$80, but now it is cheaper than bus fare. I wondered how airlines could manage to survive. A little bit relieving was that the airplane was full of passengers.

barbie~~

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 07, 2021, 03:02:13 pm
Barbie, what triggered your country's 3rd wave?

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on February 08, 2021, 09:47:00 am
Barbie, what triggered your country's 3rd wave?

As you know, most countries in the northern hemisphere faced the winter explosion.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=DEU~JPN~KOR~GBR~USA

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 08, 2021, 10:50:13 am
As you know, most countries in the northern hemisphere faced the winter explosion.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/positive-rate-daily-smoothed?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=DEU~JPN~KOR~GBR~USA

barbie~~
Gotcha. Yikes! It was scary but all too predictable watching the infection rate gradient migrating southward in tandem with colder weather here in the USA. Coupled with a higher penetration of Y'all Queda the farther south one goes, and our general intransigence about insisting on traveling for the holidays... bad news.

Couple interesting articles in the serious press over the weekend.

WSJ wrote about how we likely need to get used to the idea of Covid becoming endemic, i.e., just a regular background disease in general circulation like the common cold or the flu, but lethal. How it'll have a lasting effect on office work, travel, public health delivery, etc., etc.

The others were a pair in the Post and the NYT on a study just came out estimating that the British Covid variant is spreading so quickly in the USA that its infections are doubling every ten days. I can't imagine it can keep that rate up over time, but pretend it weren't Covid with a viable vaccine for a moment. Terrifying.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 20, 2021, 09:49:13 pm
Interesting piece in the NYT today about how/ when herd immunity might be reached in the USA.

I heard Fauci the other day saying that the actual threshold of herd immunity is a squishy thing depending on the mix of coronavirus strains floating around and their infectiousness; how well vaccines handle each; how long a person stays immune after catching the virus; and the average susceptibility of the population. So who actually knows, but he guesses it's when 75-85% of us are immune.

So how do we get to 75%-85% immune? That's the big question.

The NYT article presents it as a function of three variables:

- How quickly we vaccinate people
- Whether we are willing to keep tight restrictions on social distancing, etc.
- How infectious and lethal the dominant strains of virus

With that, it's all a matter of how many American lives you're willing to sacrifice.

The more people vaccinated, the more that are likely to survive Covid. Do it faster? Even more.

Remember, though, that herd immunity is driven by a proportion of the population. You get there not only by vaccinating people but by killing the unvaccinated. Leaves a higher share of vaccinated people in the surviving population. That radiologist the former administration adopted as a public health advisor had a fine plan for getting us to herd immunity if you didn't mind millions of unnecessary deaths.

So when will the USA get there? NYT article says it could be as early as April. All we need is a murderous virus variant and to take our masks off and have coughing contests with strangers. We just lose another Civil War's-worth of Americans.

The article's best case isn't all that hot, either. If we keep vaccinating at the same rate, we lose 100,000 more people and hit herd immunity by July. Vaccinate at twice that rate and we still lose 90k but hit herd immunity by May.

So buckle up. There's still bumpy air ahead. Herd immunity doesn't prevent a disease. It only keeps the disease from readily spreading. People are still going to get sick; people are still going to need compassion.

And get your shots! Even if you do get sick, they'll keep you alive. I just got my first one today and am a happy girl for it. The needle's hella nicer than that monster I use for my weekly E, too. Scarce felt it at all.





If you're curious about the article's numbers, here's its statement about sources:

Methodology
The model used in this article was adapted from one originally published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and has been updated to reflect the most recent estimates of the prevalence, transmissibility and severity of the coronavirus as of Feb. 16.

To adapt the model for the web, The New York Times worked with researchers from Public Health Informatics, Computational and Operations Research, or PHICOR: Bruce Y. Lee, Sarah M. Bartsch, Kelly J. O’Shea, Patrick T. Wedlock and Marie C. Ferguson. PHICOR is headquartered at the City University of New York School of Public Health & Health Policy

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on February 22, 2021, 10:31:47 am
75 - 85% of people need to be immune for herd immunity to kick in...but the polls are
indicating that between  38 - 40% of people aren't going to get a vaccination. Of course,
there are at least two paths to immunity; a vaccine and actually contracting the
disease. It's going to complicate things.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on February 22, 2021, 10:50:05 am
I am not planning to get the vaccine soon, but I do plan to get it eventually.

My concern is, I have seen the damage that FDA properly vetted and approved drugs can do, and in that case it is done despite liability concerns.  In the event that you make a drug company immune from prosecution for negligence and wantonness, and they can generate billions in revenue if they get theirs into the market first, what dangerous thing might they put out?

This is the first RNA vaccine ever made for people.  It didn’t even go through animas trials (which is a violation of the Nuremberg Code).  So, anyone who gets the vaccine bow is essentially a guinea pig.  I will give it some time and see what happens to the people who get it.  If one or more of them prove safe and effective, I will get the vaccine then. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 22, 2021, 01:25:49 pm

I am not planning to get the vaccine soon, but I do plan to get it eventually.

My concern is, I have seen the damage that FDA properly vetted and approved drugs can do, and in that case it is done despite liability concerns.  In the event that you make a drug company immune from prosecution for negligence and wantonness, and they can generate billions in revenue if they get theirs into the market first, what dangerous thing might they put out?

This is the first RNA vaccine ever made for people.  It didn’t even go through animas trials (which is a violation of the Nuremberg Code).  So, anyone who gets the vaccine bow is essentially a guinea pig.  I will give it some time and see what happens to the people who get it.  If one or more of them prove safe and effective, I will get the vaccine then.

Didn't know that about Nuremberg.

I absolutely appreciate your chain of thought, and in fact held it for quite some time. Added to my distrust was the worry of political interference in the process. When I saw the FDA knuckle under and promote crackpot theories and truly lethal drugs because, "what could it hurt?" Oy. I didn't want anything the government was promoting to go into my body. And I hate meds generally. And I'm paranoid.

So... yeah. My path to vaccination wasn't free of obstacles.

Here's what I figure:

Your first point about the pharmaceutical industry... man alive, who knows. It's all a minestra of conflicting incentives. No comment.

As to your point of risks down the road? Totally with you. But any med is always a proposition of "what sucks less?"

I figure that the trials were conducted several months ago, and most all adverse reactions to a vaccine happen within the first 6-8 weeks. There were some, but absent a major coverup, apparently nothing too unsurprising.

Then there's my age, my Rubenesque figure, and the newer, more infectious, and apparently more lethal Covid strains evolving. If I got hit, like as not I might get hit pretty hard. I'd really like to lower my profile wrt the disease. Hey, I just got myself figured out. It'd be a shame to up and die so soon. Ain't gonna live forever, but no reason to take obvious risks of hastening it.

And what if it does take ten years off my life but guarantees I'll make it through at least the next ten? Nothing is certain in life. Everything is a gamble.

I'm just a statistician. All I do is manage uncertainty. I look at it as balancing one risk (vaccine = survive Covid but maybe die younger from long-term vaccine effects) against something that has higher risk (maybe die younger of Covid and maybe die younger from long-term vaccine effects after I get some new shot).

Who knows? You pays your money and you takes your chances. I'm not saying you're wrong at all. You may well be proven to have made the right choice. This is only how I assess the situation.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 22, 2021, 01:32:13 pm
75 - 85% of people need to be immune for herd immunity to kick in...but the polls are
indicating that between  38 - 40% of people aren't going to get a vaccination. Of course,
there are at least two paths to immunity; a vaccine and actually contracting the
disease. It's going to complicate things.
A very good point.

The models showed that if herd immunity were to be reached earlier, vaccination wouldn't be the major contributor. It'd be immunity reached by mass infection and mass culling, plus a thin layer of vaccination.

Keeping ourselves from getting sick, and waitng for lots of vaccination to take hold, will slow the path to herd immunity but keep more of us out of caskets.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on February 22, 2021, 01:42:37 pm
My parents both got the vaccine.  They have a lot of underlying health problems, including cancer and diabetes.  So, their risk profile is different from mine.  The exposure (risk of getting Covid19) is perhaps lower for them, but their likelihood of dying from it is much higher than mine. 

Furthermore, right now in my area, older people and people with health conditions that the virus exacerbates are being prioritized.  It would almost seem greedy for me to try to jump in line, knowing a cancer patient or someone with compromised immunity my be delayed because I took their place in line.  My doctor says at my age and given my health I have a 99% chance of surviving it, assuming I do get it.  So, I try not to take extreme risks of getting it (social distancing, wear a mask in public buildings) but, I don’t wear a mask outside hiking.  I don’t see too many people face to face.

So, my exposure profile is largely due to me going to the gym 5 days a week.  I don’t go at peak times, but it is busy.  My risk of mortality profile is relatively low.  I know of two people my age that got it and died.  Both were diabetes and morbidly obese.  I have just recently lost more than 60lbs and am not morbidly obese.  Maybe I’ll live, but dying would be one way to end dysphoria...so, maybe there is an element of not giving a damn. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on February 22, 2021, 02:37:47 pm
Thank you all for the good discussion. It is refreshing to see facts, mature reasoning and polite disagreement play out. I understand and respect your position better now, Rachel. As a, ahem, senior (but no longer a Senor) I am getting vaccinated. I want to reduce my chance of infecting others.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 22, 2021, 03:34:52 pm
So sorry for your loss, Rachel. But 60 lbs? Goodness! You give me hope for myself. That's a new profile photo, yes? Even if you don't share yourself with the world generally, you're a hottie as far as I'm concerned.

Great pun, Randy. Made my eyes hurt. And yes, I wish I'd mentioned the effect of a reduced risk of sharing the virus with others. Feels like the research on that is still a little new - I haven't seen much contradictory stuff yet, I don't think - but it would sure be great to be confident that it made people less likely to be carriers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on February 22, 2021, 03:49:42 pm
Thank you.  Yes, it is a recent photo.  But...it’s an app.  FaceApp.  It does gender swap and tends to make you prettier IMHO.  I do plan on taking a new photo of me looking my best soon.  I don’t post photos of me dressed in femme on the internet, but I do PM them. 

So, in the nature of full disclosure with no intent to deceive, that isn’t exactly me.  I am actually not quite that pretty.  Maybe with a brow shave and eye lift?  People here that I exchanged an actual photo (pre-weight loss) said I was still an attractive woman (and other flattering things), but I hope to look better in the next photos due to weight loss. 

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Pammie on February 22, 2021, 04:35:06 pm
I got vaccinated last week. Got a text inviting me to get vaccinated and got vaccinated same day. No brainer for me as im quite happy with the testing.


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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on February 22, 2021, 05:51:31 pm


... And yes, I wish I'd mentioned the effect of a reduced risk of sharing the virus with others. Feels like the research on that is still a little new - I haven't seen much contradictory stuff yet, I don't think - but it would sure be great to be confident that it made people less likely to be carriers.

I just read an article in the Washington Post reporting on new studies in Britain. Here's one that found the Pfizer vaccine reduced infection rates too, not just serious illness. If you don't catch it, you can't spread it. So that is hopeful news:

In a second study, also released Monday, Public Health England (PHE) scientists presented preliminary data showing that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appears to provide high levels of protection not only against symptomatic covid-19 but against coronavirus infection.

Researchers have been examining a cohort of vaccinated health-care workers every two weeks — whether or not they have covid-19 symptoms — and they found that one dose reduced the risk of infection by more than 70 percent, rising to 85 percent after the second dose.

“This suggests the vaccine may also help to interrupt virus transmission, as you cannot spread the virus if you do not have infection,” the PHE researchers said in a statement.

From  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/covid-vaccines-protection-uk/2021/02/22/216b1dac-751a-11eb-9489-8f7dacd51e75_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_evening_edition&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_evening

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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on February 24, 2021, 06:27:20 pm
Another article discussing not only herd immunity, but next, when do we declare Covid contained?

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/how-know-when-pandemic-over/618122/

(I hope the link opens. The Atlantic says they've made the article free for anyone to read. No promises!)

It cites the 75 to 80+ % ish figure for herd immunity Fauci gave, and it also references the variables from that NYT article about how we get there.

Then it goes into the metrics on when we should accept that we can stop taking extreme measures to contain the virus. Mortality will drop sharply as we vaccinate older folks. The public health experts interviewed suggest that with ongoing nationwide vaccination, it should be possible to get mortality and hospitalization rates down comparable to what we typically see from the flu.

[Caveat, caveat, no new strains, widespread acceptance of the vaccine, immunity to Covid lasts a long time once you've had it, etc., etc.]

Well, then? What would you do? I've always been perfectly fine walking around without a mask during flu season, though I may reconsider from now on. I do get my flu shot every year - turns out it's also good for your circulatory system and lowers your risk of stroke. (Who knew? Bonus!) I wouldn't have any problem getting an annual Covid shot.

We'll likely never eradicate Covid. It's part of the biome. We can't pretend it's gone yet and throw all our precautions away. Less than 10% of Americans have had even one injection. There's hella long road to go.

But the day is coming. When will you feel okay?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on February 24, 2021, 10:38:37 pm
I'm planning to feel ok on June 20th.

Ok maybe that's over optimistic, but it's starting to sound like we'll be into mass vaccinations before then. I'll have to see the case counts come down, and have a sense that most of the people I interact with are vaccinated.

The variant problem is what concerns me most. I'm hearing more positive noises about reluctant people going ahead and getting vaccinated, so I hope we can get the herd immunity up to that 75 or 80 percent level without killing off too many more people.

I have hope that by late summer we'll have achieved that.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on February 25, 2021, 06:01:17 am

We'll likely never eradicate Covid. It's part of the biome. We can't pretend it's gone yet and throw all our precautions away. Less than 10% of Americans have had even one injection. There's hella long road to go.

But the day is coming. When will you feel okay?

In Florida, we have been vaccinating health care workers and seniors over the age of 65 for about two months now. The rates of new infections and hospitalizations due to Covid causes are going down. Every day the reported number of cases is decreasing. Now it is about 2/3 what it was at the peak of this pandemic.

I had both injections of the Pfizer vaccine and I am feeling very good now.

Even though I have been vaccinated, I could still spread the virus through touch contamination with an infected person. We still need to mask and maintain personal sanitation practices for a while now.

When many more of us are vaccinated, I can foresee the day when masks and social distancing is no longer necessary. However, I still think that the personal sanitation practices should stay in place since bacteria and viruses have an immense ability to mutate to new more infectious forms.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on February 25, 2021, 08:44:48 am
June 20 seems reasonable.  I think I will wait until Aug 15.  I will probably get both shots in before college football season starts (they’ll probably make you show you vaccine card to get in the stadium).  By August I hope that there is a clear “better choice” among the available vaccines, and I want that one.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 01, 2021, 11:56:52 am
Just heard Fauci on our local radio on when he thinks life will get back to "normal."

He started off with the usual sensible "Mumble, mumble, caveat, caveat, herd immunity, variants, compliance, Lord willing and the creek don't rise" that nobody ever listens to, and then he none-too-convincingly predicted fourth quarter 2021.

Tellingly, he wasn't willing to specifically define "normal."

Fourth quarter is the beginning of flu season in the northern USA. 2020's flu season has actually been one of the least bad in the last decade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_influenza_statistics_by_flu_season

Much of the decline has been attributed to wearing masks. While folks may think it's not part of "normal" to still be wearing them, I think I may keep mine on during flu season. Couldn't hurt. Keeps my nose warm, too.

Fauci also said he wouldn't be too surprised if we were to need an annual Covid shot, just like we get annual flu shots. Welp. I guess it is a coronavirus, after all. The common cold coronavirus keeps figuring out a way to defeat our immune systems. Dunno if that's any kind of exact parallel, but I'll line up for any annual coronavirus shot I can get.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lagdim on March 01, 2021, 09:14:52 pm
I dunno, we managed to eradicate Polio and Smallpox back in the day. No reason we couldn't eradicate Covid, save for the huge rise of conspiracy-thinking we've seen with the internet. If antivaxers didn't ruin it for the rest of us, we could reach herd immunity for sure.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: mac1 on March 02, 2021, 01:34:08 am
Just received 1st dose of vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lyric on March 02, 2021, 12:19:45 pm
I FINALLY GOT A SHOT!

I registered back in January, but just yesterday finally got notice to show up at 10 AM this morning (not a lot of advance notice on this thing). I'm in Texas, though, so I was kind of expecting some delays after the weather issues a couple of weeks ago.

It all went very smoothly and quickly. It was set up in the lobby of a huge indoor stadium about 20 minutes away. The National Guard were all over the place directing people and were very friendly and helpful. One of the even "ma'amed" me!  I was pretty andro looking wearing women's skinny jeans and a pleated jacket so with the ponytail and mask I guess I looked more the ma'am.

So far, no noticeable effects or even arm soreness, but it's only been a couple of hours.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on March 07, 2021, 10:43:39 am
I FINALLY GOT A SHOT!

Vaccination progress is very fast in the US. Here in S. Korea, it just started about a week ago. Some people already worry about side effects. Hopefully, we will return to the 'normal' next year.

barbie~~
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 07, 2021, 10:50:21 am
I scheduled my vaccinations yesterday. First one on March 16th, second on June 1st.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: AnonyMs on March 07, 2021, 10:57:27 am
In Australia we’ve barely started with vaccinations. I’m rather disappointed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 08, 2021, 12:30:53 pm
I'm embarrassed to admit it (not that I don't admit plenty of embarrassing stuff here anyway), but with Ma and DW already vaccinated, me getting my second shot this weekend, and both kids about to get theirs, I'm starting to get a real bad attitude towards folks who insist on not minimizing their risks of getting Covid, particularly by not wearing masks.

I don't care what foolish, selfish reasons they try to claim. Personal liberty, masks don't work, owning the libs, whatever. Doesn't matter. Everybody knows how Covid works by now. It's contagious. We give it to each other. Doesn't fall from the sky, doesn't come from the Tooth Fairy. Leave your mask off, you raise your chances of catching it. Leave your mask off, you raise your chances of passing it on.

Except to me and my family.

I know that's not exactly true - we can still get sick, but it's a lot less likely to be awful, and very unlikely to kill us. And yeah, maybe these new variants might change things. Life is full of unknowns.

But for now, I got mine.

The Maskless Yahoo Brigade wants to go to heck in a handbasket all by themselves? Fine by me. It's been a year. Nobody can claim they weren't informed. Everybody knows what's up. Everybody knows the risks. Anyone still insists Covid ain't real, that's on them.

I live in a community where folks have no problems putting on a mask. No tantrums, no anti-science, no solipsism. I know several anti-vaxxers, and each and every one of them plans to get a shot. Where you stand depends upon where you sit, and I guess that when you yourself might die, it means more to you than when you give all your kids' classmates the measles, the mumps, or the scarlet fever.

So like I say, I'm starting to get this nasty attitude of "the heck with those maskless dopes." You want to leave your masks at home? Sure, but don't stop there - why not have coughing contests? Want to elect governors who roll over and surrender to the virus? Go for it. After all, fighting a relentless enemy is ever so tiring that we all simply must knuckle under given the slightest excuse. Okey-dokey, folks. Justify your health away. I got mine.

I've been trying to write mostly thoughtful, analytical posts in this thread. Haven't always managed, and I've been wrong plenty, but I've done my best. This whole pandemic has been an exercise in horror and stupidity here in the USA, and I'm so d*mn tired of it, and now I got my shot, and my family will soon be all vaccinated, and where you stand depends upon where you sit, and I got mine.

Meh.

I'm just so tired of it all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on March 08, 2021, 01:38:32 pm
I just saw the Hartford Courant headline yesterday that the big insurance companies Aetna and Travelers are going to stick with remote working for now.  I don't plan to go back to work in the office until I get my vaccine shot.

Just too many stupid people out there giving the virus ample opportunity to spread.

Marion
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 08, 2021, 02:55:04 pm
I got my second shot this morning. Two more weeks and maybe I can go visit my Mom and sister (who got both of theirs a few weeks ago). I guess age has its perks.

The company for which I am contracting wants to begin phasing in office work soon. I was delighted when my supervisor told me I am excepted. I guess part time contracting has its perks too.

Most people here wear masks in busy places or indoors. The biggest exception is outdoors walking, running or biking. I usually pull mine up when I approach somebody on the trail, and a few others do the same. I think the risk there is minimal since we are just passing quickly by each other. At least I haven't gotten sick yet.

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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 08, 2021, 03:43:43 pm
I wish the Coronavirus would disappear!


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 08, 2021, 06:50:28 pm
I wish the Coronavirus would disappear!


Chrissy

We are almost there. In just a few more months we will all breathe much better.

This is no time to stop doing the CDC recommendations for Covid
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 08, 2021, 09:04:09 pm
Battle Goddess, I'm disgusted too. It has been broadly reported that the Russian, Chinese, and Iraqi governments have been using social media to lie about people dying from vaccinations. However, if one doesn't trust scientists, why do they drive? Own a cell phone? Take any meds? All these things came from the same scientific process as vaccines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 08, 2021, 10:34:24 pm
Scientists are people.  Science is a methodology.  Some people (for a billion dollars with absolute immunity from liability) will put things into the marketplace that are unsafe.  I am not saying these vaccines are unsafe, but they have not been rigorously tested.  No vaccine as novel as a new mRNA vaccine has ever been tested on people with no animal trials, and then mere months later pushed on the American people. 

I plan to get the vaccine, but I am watching to see what happens to people who get it before me.  Those people are guinea pigs. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 09, 2021, 05:25:49 am
... No vaccine as novel as a new mRNA vaccine has ever been tested on people with no animal trials, and then mere months later pushed on the American people. 

I plan to get the vaccine, but I am watching to see what happens to people who get it before me.  Those people are guinea pigs.

Oink, oink!  ::)

You can call me a guinea pig if you wish, but I prefer to think of myself as an early recipient of a new vaccine. This is just like in 1955 when I received the new Salk vaccine for Polio.

The disease is much worse than any possible vaccine side effects.

I got the Pfizer vaccine in January. Thanks to all the scientists who developed this vaccine and a bigger thanks to all the human volunteers who were involved in the first clinical trials.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 09, 2021, 08:17:25 am
“Guinea pig”, not the sort of pig that goes “oink”.  It’s like a super big hamster.  They use them for medical testing, because USUALLY they don’t want to give humans injections that have not been tested and found safe in animals.  But, the drug companies have immunity from liability and a contract worth billions to make something quickly. 

I have seen drug Companies put drugs I to the market they knew were dangerous.  And, then they weren’t immune, just greedy and in a rush.  Here, they know up front that even if they knowingly put out something that is dangerous, billions of income with no liability.  Who knows what they will push out under those circumstances?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 09, 2021, 12:16:15 pm
I second what Rakel said: Thanks to the scientists and thanks to the human volunteers too.

P.S. - I also took the Pfizer vaccine. I've since grown a prehensile tall. It's so handy, like a third hand. I'm still hoping for laser eyes, one of the rarest side effects.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 09, 2021, 12:38:57 pm
I took the Pfizer vaccine, too, but all it made me do was feel old and creaky.

But she wasn't looking, so I got away with it.



In other good news, an initial study makes it look like the Pfizer vaccine works pretty much as well on the Brazilian variant as it does on the original variant it was developed for.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 09, 2021, 01:24:40 pm
Actually mRNA vaccines have been through a lot of animal testing over the years. What they did for Covid was to make the small changes needed for this particular virus. I don't know if there was a brief animal trial or if they just went directly to humans at that point.

It was probably a similar process to what they do annually to test the latest flu shot.

Animal trials can't prove safety. All they do is help identify problems and dangers to be addressed before it goes to humans. Only human trials can establish safety and efficacy since we are different from the other animals.

Since this is a novel vaccine working against a novel virus there was certainly risk for the early volunteers. I am thankful to them, but am now confident that it's safer than getting the disease.

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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 09, 2021, 01:52:29 pm


I took the Pfizer vaccine, too, but all it made me do was feel old and creaky.

But she wasn't looking, so I got away with it.


...
I've heard that the Pfizer vaccine can produce Fpunny side effects.

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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 09, 2021, 09:04:22 pm
I took the Pfizer vaccine, too, but all it made me do was feel old and creaky.

But she wasn't looking, so I got away with it.



In other good news, an initial study makes it look like the Pfizer vaccine works pretty much as well on the Brazilian variant as it does on the original variant it was developed for.

Old and creaky? Yikes! That's worse than the worst of the side effects. I think all the Pfizer vaccine should be stacked in a California field and incinerated with Jewish space lasers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 10, 2021, 05:44:31 am
Rachel, I understand your caution.

Here's why I put my faith in scientists:

1. I know some scientists and they adhere to methodology rather than profit. Their devotion to methodology is pure.

2. My spouse has spent weeks in ICUs over the last three years struggling to breathe and months in hospitals. I was there, nearly every night, listening to her struggle to breathe. For us, an ICU and the struggle to live isn't an abstraction. We know what the ICU means. I know what it is to have the doctors cluster around me and speak in hushed tones. My spouse knows what it is to weigh less than a hundred pounds and to have five lines in one arm, three in the other, a feeding tube, oxygen, a cath, a poop tube, and so on. Being in the ICU for COVID-19 is even worse because you're alone. So, we rolled the dice on a rushed vaccine.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 10, 2021, 08:29:33 am
Let me be frank.  Science is wonderful.  It has helped us discover many ways to manipulate Matter and change raw material to more useful end products.  Scientists are the people who are trained in particular areas of science.  They tend to know a lot about their subject of study, most of which is imperfect knowledge.  We are still learning.  Some of our assumptions are wrong.  It isn’t uncommon for a rocket design to blow up as opposed to launching u til that design has been operational for some time.  Even then, disasters happen.  But, scientists (though as subject to biase and prejudice as any human) tend to at least try to look at their subject matter objectively.

What I don’t trust is pharmaceutical companies.  If businesses always did exactly what the engineers said was best, or exactly what the scientists say is best, I wouldn’t be as worried.  If everyone were ethical and showed a genuine concern for the wel being of others, I’d feel better.  But, people are imperfect.  We make mistakes.  When we rush, we overlook. 

This drug is an entirely new sort of drug that has never been used in humans before.  Never.  This is the first mRNA vaccine.  Like a new rocket that often blows up on the pad, this thing could still blow up.  It hasn’t been properly tested, not yet.  There were NO ANIMAL TRIALS.  That is a first for the FDA (to authorize human testing without anima trials).  We dot know why the long term effects may be.  Some scientists has posed serious concerns.  In the rush, that have been ignored.  Hopefully they won’t be like the Morton Thyicon engineer who refused to sign off on the launch of the Challenger.  He didn’t think the O rings would work, so NASA went over his head and got authorization from his boss.  I hope nothing like that has happened here, but I don’t have faith that it hasn’t.  I have seen too many cases where executives ignore their own scientists.

And, sometimes scientists get it wrong.  In history, the experts told us the world is flat, the earth is the center of the heavenly bodies and everything rotated around it.  And, many, many more wrong things. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 10, 2021, 11:24:48 am
Rachel, I understood your position before you reiterated it. Now I re-understand it. I actually understood it before you initially stated it because, yes, sometimes scientists err.

Speaking of error, you erred here:

Quote
And, sometimes scientists get it wrong.  In history, the experts told us the world is flat, the earth is the center of the heavenly bodies and everything rotated around it.  And, many, many more wrong things.

An Earth-centric universe was a theological position, not a scientific position. A flat Earth was the misassumption of people who weren't acute witnesses nor deductive thinkers. Science had nothing to do with that.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 10, 2021, 01:06:05 pm

An Earth-centric universe was a theological position, not a scientific position.

Not to be totally cranky about this point, but imo a sensible observer could easily conclude that the sun rotates around the earth. Aristotle had. The empirical evidence seems to support it (just watch the thing) and a viable, if complex, geocentric model can also account for the motions of the planets and the fixed stars. Telescopes weren't all that great back in the day.

The Church's insistence on a geocentric model fit with its doctrine of man at the center of the universe. Challenging that notion, be it via astronomy, evolution, or perhaps the discovery of signs of life on Mars, tends to flip people out.

Poor Copernicus waited until he lay on his deathbed to publish that the Earth might circle the sun. Brahe's observational data let nutty old Kepler figure out that things orbited in ellipses, though he could never quite quit jamming the Platonic polyhedra into them. Galileo was a total crank. I've read his books. Rhetoric was as much a part of the process as method back then, and by today's standards, they're not very convincing. Salviati, Sagredo, and Simplicius? C'mon.

Cynically speaking, I'd guess the Church wasn't as much interested in theology as in maintaining social order and thus its secular power. Not only that, but it was hardly worth risking chaos just because some nut from Pisa with a telescope and wild claims said to.

It's easy for me at a remove of 400 years to smh at those dumb theologians who couldn't recognize the obvious truths Galileo spoke. I'm heiress to an institution of centuries of scientific progress and purges. Yet GG's truths weren't all that obvious at the time, and social institutions are there to keep things running smoothly, and while putting the dude under house arrest seems unholy by today's standards, it was pretty lenient for the day.

So idk. I agree the position was theological, but there was more nuance to it than that. Just like this interesting conversation.

Rachel, would you take a vaccine like the J&J that wasn't mRNA based? It's still from a Big Pharma company, and it was still rushed into production.

Come to think of it, I don't know of any of the Covid vaccines worldwide that weren't rushed into production, a few without Stage Three trials or from countries whose regulatory authorities are widely known to respond to bribery more than data.

What's your position on those?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 10, 2021, 02:29:17 pm
BG, you are wicked smart. Stunningly smart. Bodaciously smart.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 10, 2021, 03:25:25 pm
BG, you are wicked smart. Stunningly smart. Bodaciously smart.

Nah, I'm just a science geek who reads a lot. Helps to understand medieval Italian.

Fun fact: you can see the remains of Galileo's skeletal hand on display in Florence, middle finger extended in eternal defiance.

"Eppur si muove."

https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/galileos-middle-finger
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on March 10, 2021, 03:40:31 pm
With this virus and all its variants, there are few options. I finally got the opportunity to get the Pfizer vaccine yesterday. In 3 weeks, I can get the booster. It will be better than risking getting full-blown Covid-19. My husband got the vaccine today.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 10, 2021, 05:24:16 pm
I would be more comfortable taking the J&J vaccine because of the methodology of its function, but I want to see some real world stats on how well it does and how safe it is.  When I can see the effect and see the results of all of them, then I will pick the best one.  Safe and effective, that is what I am looking for.  And, right now Pfizer is the one doctors seem to feel best about as the balance of those things.  But, the story is yet to be developed on long term effects.  I’ll probably do something before August.  But, it might not be until July. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on March 10, 2021, 07:56:00 pm
I would be more comfortable taking the J&J vaccine because of the methodology of its function, but I want to see some real world stats on how well it does and how safe it is.  When I can see the effect and see the results of all of them, then I will pick the best one.  Safe and effective, that is what I am looking for.  And, right now Pfizer is the one doctors seem to feel best about as the balance of those things.  But, the story is yet to be developed on long term effects.  I’ll probably do something before August.  But, it might not be until July.

I can understand that people prefer a "One and done" vaccine, but the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is only 70% effective versus the others, which are around 95% effective. However, if you prefer J&J, that is still better than nothing at all and taking risks every time you go out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 10, 2021, 08:20:31 pm
COVID vaccines:  Get whatever one you can have is what some experts say.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 10, 2021, 08:27:24 pm
All this talk about the new Covid vaccines not being thoroughly tested before large scale human vaccinations is really a moot point when the disease is much worse than all reported side effects to date.

I will repeat myself, I was one of the first children to get the Salk vaccine and I am happy for it and I am forever grateful to  the 1.8 million American Children who were the test subjects in 1954. I have seen Polio victims and Polio is almost as bad as Covid. Many people died of both viruses.

I believe in vaccines and public health officials.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 10, 2021, 11:42:03 pm
I can understand that people prefer a "One and done" vaccine, but the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is only 70% effective versus the others, which are around 95% effective. However, if you prefer J&J, that is still better than nothing at all and taking risks every time you go out.
The J&J vaccine was tested later in the pandemic than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, after the more dangerous variants had emerged. And it was tested in South Africa and Latin America where these variants were circulating. It's unclear if the mRNA vaccines would have scored so high in the same conditions.

So I believe the differences between these three vaccines are not as large as the phase 3 trial results seem to indicate.

All three vaccines seem to be equally effective in preventing serious disease and hospitalizations, in fact nearly completely effective at that.
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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: davina61 on March 11, 2021, 03:05:34 am
Well my ex who is a nurse caught it even though she had her shot, looks like all the nurses on that ward got it as well. She was quite bad with it as well so looks like a good job she had the shot or she could have been very bad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 11, 2021, 08:20:40 am
I believe in vaccines and public health officials.

Did you believe them when they said “don’t bother with a mask.  Research shows masks don’t work”?  And, then believe them again when a couple of months later they said everyone needs to wear a mask (BTW, not based on new research, just based on the idea that people need to do something to feel they have some control).   Or, did you believe them months AFTER they said to wear masks when they said research shows masks DO work?

The “experts” don’t have enough data yet to know what they are talking about.  They are shooting in the dark.  There is no way that they know these vaccines are safe, because they haven’t done the science.  They haven’t had time to do the science.  They are just grasping at straws. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 11, 2021, 10:53:47 am
Did you believe them when they said “don’t bother with a mask.  Research shows masks don’t work”?  And, then believe them again when a couple of months later they said everyone needs to wear a mask (BTW, not based on new research, just based on the idea that people need to do something to feel they have some control).   Or, did you believe them months AFTER they said to wear masks when they said research shows masks DO work?

The “experts” don’t have enough data yet to know what they are talking about.  They are shooting in the dark.  There is no way that they know these vaccines are safe, because they haven’t done the science.  They haven’t had time to do the science.  They are just grasping at straws.

I'm with you, Rachel: a healthy skepticism is always justified. I remember those early days when the messaging was that masks didn't work, and it made no sense to me at all. I don't remember the part about trying to give people a sense of control, because that was still when PPE was in short supply. What were your sources?

The actual effects of masks alone, maybe I'd have a hard time teasing out because they get entangled with other measures of prevention like social distancing, but it seems clear that when the full suite of measures gets put in place, infections drop. All the same, masks have to play some part. They won't keep me from getting infected 100%, but all I'm looking for is anything to bugger the odds in my favor.

So yeah, I feel you on your skepticism. In the longest of the long-term, five or ten years out, who knows? It truly is a gamble. I do know that the vaccines are showing the same profile as most all others in that the severe reactions happen in the first few weeks and then drop to nil, so that's reassuring. I also do know that Covid can kill me dead within that same window. After that, it's just a matter of which sucks less and choosing the horse you want to ride.

Totally not to rag on you, but I can even make the case that the long-term effects of childhood vaccines are cancer and heart disease. It's bogus, but I bet I could get someone to believe it:

The argument goes that the rates of deaths by cancer and heart disease have skyrocketed since childhood vaccines were introduced. Of course, the reason for that is because so many more people aren't slain by childhood diseases that they get to survive long enough to reach an age where death by cancer and heart disease become possible.

The same will be true of the Covid vaccines.

What I'm really saying is that the time horizon of a couple of months you're using is so brief as to be ineffective. You're gonna have to wait years to really find out whether the things really have much for deleterious side effects. If you need to wait for that, to heck with the mRNA vaccines for you. Grab that J&J (if you get the choice).

But I sure do hope you'll grab the first one available, whatever kind it is.


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Oldandcreaky on March 11, 2021, 08:18:33 pm
Dr. Fauci, in his "60 Minutes" interview, followed his masks-aren't-needed statement with this caveat: “Right now in the United States people should not be walking around with masks … You should think of healthcare providers who are needing them and the people who are ill.”

He wanted the limited masks to be reserved for the sick and their caregivers.

However, he did change his mind about mask wearing as more masks and more data became available. Smart people change their minds.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on March 12, 2021, 03:38:31 pm
I do recall the downplaying of the effectiveness of masks when hospital staff needed them, and you could not get them from Amazon unless they were shipped from China. They also downplayed the effectiveness of faceshields, which are still difficult to obtain. The only thing they did not downplay the effectiveness of were disposable gloves.

Now, we have vaccines, and we are being told to wear 2 masks at a time. I wonder how long until we are told we need shot #3, 4, 5, etc... with all the new strains as the virus continues to mutate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 12, 2021, 05:08:13 pm
Battle goddess, there are often unintended consequences.  Some vaccines may, in fact, cause a heightened risk of cancer.  So, is the small chance of some day getting cancer more or less significant than the virus they were trying to protect against.  That is a judgement call, but people tend to discount probabilities of distant future maladies.  That’s why people smoked long after they knew it was dangerous.  It wasn’t SURE to kill them, and if it did that was years away. 

Add to that the fact that there is a history of viruses seemingly defeated by the body suddenly causing serious health issues years later.  The same could be true for any vaccine.  That is why they have testing protocols.  And, on this virus, they didn’t go through all the usual steps.  In a rush, they skipped several.  So, maybe we will get lucky and all of that additional testing just would have proved it safe.  Maybe not.

Maybe many people who get Covid will seem to get well, and only after several years will they suffer a sudden serious effect from the virus (maybe getting COPD, or something else).  The experts are not experts on this subject, because they have no history working with the long term effect of the virus OR the vaccine. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on March 12, 2021, 05:16:40 pm
Dr. Fauci, in his "60 Minutes" interview, followed his masks-aren't-needed statement with this caveat: “Right now in the United States people should not be walking around with masks … You should think of healthcare providers who are needing them and the people who are ill.”

He wanted the limited masks to be reserved for the sick and their caregivers.

However, he did change his mind about mask wearing as more masks and more data became available. Smart people change their minds.

You are taking it on faith that he was motivated purely by the lack of PPE.  I went to the CDC site at the time and read several scientific articles explaining why masks don’t work to stop the spread of Corona virus.  The CDC took them down, but the studies are still out there.

People were panicking because there was nothing within their power to make them safe, so they gave a placebo.  Wear a mask.

There is no significant difference in the trajectory of the disease in areas where mask compliance was high verses areas where mask compliance was low, but what differences do exist show that areas where mask compliance was best suffered the worst.  Which is the cause and which is the effect?  Probably, places being hit hardest were more compliant.  And, probably places where there spread was not fast and furious, were the places people didn’t feel so compelled to wear them.  But, I don’t know that is the reason for the difference.

Places that locked down had WORSE problems than places that didn’t.  Is that because places with worse problems locked down, and others who didn’t have severe problems didn’t.  Maybe.  That would be a reasonable assumption.  But, we don’t know.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on March 12, 2021, 06:09:11 pm
You are taking it on faith that he was motivated purely by the lack of PPE.  I went to the CDC site at the time and read several scientific articles explaining why masks don’t work to stop the spread of Corona virus.  The CDC took them down, but the studies are still out there.

People were panicking because there was nothing within their power to make them safe, so they gave a placebo.  Wear a mask.

There is no significant difference in the trajectory of the disease in areas where mask compliance was high verses areas where mask compliance was low, but what differences do exist show that areas where mask compliance was best suffered the worst.  Which is the cause and which is the effect?  Probably, places being hit hardest were more compliant.  And, probably places where there spread was not fast and furious, were the places people didn’t feel so compelled to wear them.  But, I don’t know that is the reason for the difference.

Places that locked down had WORSE problems than places that didn’t.  Is that because places with worse problems locked down, and others who didn’t have severe problems didn’t.  Maybe.  That would be a reasonable assumption.  But, we don’t know.

Are you comparing apples to oranges? Of course urban areas will have higher occurrences of outbreak compared to rural areas. The higher the population density, the more likely people will become infected, regardless of whatever PPE they use to protect themselves. The WHO and Dr. Fauci just don't happen to mention that when addressing the matter. Perhaps they think it best to presume to speak to the highest population density areas, as if everybody live in such places. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 12, 2021, 06:14:52 pm
Be as safe as you can be, taking responsible precautions to protect others as well as yourselves.

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2021, 12:31:25 pm
I'd like it if everyone who was dead set against ever getting vaccinated had to wear a long, pointy hat. And shoes with curled-up toes and jingle bells. Anything so they can't hide themselves among decent folks.

As for me, the second shot went into the Battle Goddess's arm today, and she is a very happy girl.

Never knew one wasn't supposed to take ibuprofen for any side effects, but the nurse said it can dull the immune response.

I did have a lulu of a reaction to my second shingles shot a few years ago. Knowing what that can be like, I'm writing the weekend off to   rest and recuperation, and anything better than that is good fortune.

Good thing is they say that whether you have a strong reaction or no reaction at all, you still get the same immunity.

Know what? In two weeks, imma hug my buddy who's prone to pneumonia, and then I think I'll go see a movie!

This has been one hella rotten year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 13, 2021, 12:41:23 pm
.

People were panicking because there was nothing within their power to make them safe, so they gave a placebo.  Wear a mask.

There is no significant difference in the trajectory of the disease in areas where mask compliance was high verses areas where mask compliance was low, but what differences do exist show that areas where mask compliance was best suffered the worst.  Which is the cause and which is the effect?  Probably, places being hit hardest were more compliant.  And, probably places where there spread was not fast and furious, were the places people didn’t feel so compelled to wear them. 

Places that locked down had WORSE problems than places that didn’t.  Is that because places with worse problems locked down, and others who didn’t have severe problems didn’t. 

That beggars belief. Sorry, but I just don't understand the chain of logic.

I'm always open to being persuaded, though!

What's your evidence? Which are your examples? Can you show what situations were like before safety measures were put in place and what happened after? Or what happened after surges in unprotected gatherings or what happened after safety measures were relaxed? That's the sort of thing that would help me understand your points. I loves me some data.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 13, 2021, 04:46:31 pm
Had to share this.  ;D

(http://www.susans.org/forums/gallery/1/59100-130321164502.jpeg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 13, 2021, 05:26:07 pm
Had to share this.  ;D

(http://www.susans.org/forums/gallery/1/59100-130321164502.jpeg)
Seaside, Oregon! Where I ran my first marathon one memorable February many years ago. Wish this brewery had been there then...

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 15, 2021, 09:12:15 am
Thought I'd toss an anecdote into the conversation for anyone teetering on the edge of getting vaccinated because of short-term side effects: got my second (Pfizer) vaccine two days ago. My arm is a little tender about two inches around the pinprick injection site. That's typical for when I get my annual flu shot, too. Usually goes away after a couple of days. The needle is tiny! For all of us who take our E via injection, you'll laugh at the folks when they tell you the jab may hurt.

I had a horrible reaction to my shingles vaccine booster - laid me out for several days - so I was prepared for a similar reaction to this booster. So far, so good, though. Didn't feel much anything the day of the injection, but yesterday was rather low-energy, and I went to bed early. YMWV, of course, but my system can clearly be pretty reactive, and it wasn't. I'm content with the tradeoff.

And there weren't any microchips in the hypodermic. All y'all know how paranoid I am, and I wouldn't have taken the shot if there were. I'm the type who keeps GPS and NFC turned off on her phone, PIA that it is. No Logan's Run for me!

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 15, 2021, 09:38:51 am
My first vaccine is tomorrow, I'll let you know which vaccine I received. I have a few indicators for potentially more serious side effects:

1. Severe needle phobia.
2. I've already had covid.
3. Clot risk due to family history, and the medication I'm on.

Hoping for an event-free day.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on March 15, 2021, 04:49:16 pm
My first dose of the vaccine did not make me ill, nor did it change the chances of me getting migraines. The only effect I had was tenderness at the injection site for 2 days.

I was skeptical about getting the shot after my last flu shot left me sick in bed for 2 weeks, since I had some sort of bad reaction to it. The Covid-19 vaccine is nothing to fear. Forget all that nonsense Qanon is putting out. It's nothing but conspiracy to them. It's like saying you shouldn't eat food because you might choke and die.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rakel on March 15, 2021, 11:01:25 pm
I had both shots of the Pfizer vaccine and I had absolutely no ill effects from either injection.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 16, 2021, 06:58:44 am
First shot in, I got the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.  :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on March 16, 2021, 08:24:33 am
I just got my first dose of the Moderna shot at nearby pharmacy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 16, 2021, 04:52:26 pm
I just got my first dose of the Moderna shot at nearby pharmacy.

Good!   :)


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 16, 2021, 05:52:43 pm
Before long it's going to be safe hanging out around here, what with all the vaccinated people!

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Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 17, 2021, 11:42:16 am
I'm on a webinar with the CFO of Moderna. He (personally and unofficially) says he wouldn't be surprised if the CDC recommended another booster shot by October. They're already testing the effectiveness of a booster even though the current vaccine is effective against all the nasty strains floating around at the moment.

He also said that like everyone else, the staff had to do their work entirely over Zoom conference call. What a year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Maid Marion on March 17, 2021, 12:00:47 pm
A booster shot makes sense given the large number of infections.  This allows mutations to spread.

My arm got sore from the first shot which suggests I'm still young enough to have a strong immune system.
I've been really isolated, only going out for groceries and dentist/doctor appointments so it is unlikely  that my system has been previously exposed to Covid 19.

I have plenty of food so I'll skip going for groceries until at least the 2 week mark after the first shot to build up a little immunity.

Marioon
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2021, 02:12:43 pm
Well, that was disappointing. Just had a conversation with a friend about one of her friends. That person was justifying her own skepticism about Covid vaccines based on something she'd read on teh Interwebz.

The person sent my friend the link, and my friend forwarded it along to me. I'm not going to pass it along because it doesn't deserve propagation. To paraphrase an old professor, "It's so stupid, it isn't even wrong."

I did a little more reading on the author's website for fun. Turns out they also once sent a letter to His Holiness the Pope declaring that the Church was founded on false premises, that any document using Latin is null and void, and that they themselves are therefore taking possession of the Holy See and all of its assets worldwide.

Somewhere along the line the attorney general of Alaska gets tangled up in the whole business.

The attorney general of Alaska.

Goes to show the power and the horror of social media. Makes me feel a twinge of guilt every now and again knowing that it's my job to manipulate people using social media, but they're such suckers, and there's one born every minute. If they ever wised up, I'd be out of a job.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 19, 2021, 04:27:25 pm
One day this coronavirus will just be a memory...

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 19, 2021, 04:59:55 pm
Do ya think one day social media will be just a memory? (Ducking for cover from the wrath of the Battle Goddess )

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on March 19, 2021, 05:06:18 pm
My arm was sore for a couple days, now I'm pretty much back to normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on March 19, 2021, 05:17:55 pm
Do ya think one day social media will be just a memory? (Ducking for cover from the wrath of the Battle Goddess )

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk


I can do without it.  In fact, I do, for the most part!

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2021, 05:59:44 pm
Do ya think one day social media will be just a memory? (Ducking for cover from the wrath of the Battle Goddess )

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk
VEX NOT THE GODDESS



The latest Neal Stephenson novel has one of the characters releasing self-replicating bots onto social media.

The bots then proceed to link to each other's accounts and everyone else's, sending endless streams of incorrect information, conspiracy theories, deepfake videos, and outright lies based on whatever they find in real users' content.

The trickle of sh*tposts grows into torrents as human users interact with it and infect their own networks. Eventually no one trusts a single thing they read on social media. It's all <poo&gt. You can't believe a word of it.

I figure this actually happened a few years ago, but most folks too dumb to have figured it out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on March 19, 2021, 06:21:33 pm


VEX NOT THE GODDESS



The latest Neal Stephenson novel has one of the characters releasing self-replicating bots onto social media.
...
I love his books. Cryptonomicon, Snow Crash and Reamde coming to mind. Guess I have some catching up to do in the 2 remaining days I wait for my second shot to finish baking.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on March 19, 2021, 06:24:40 pm
This last one was a hoot. Big long riff on Paradise Lost. Didn't much run out of gas towards the end, either.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 02, 2021, 11:16:58 am
Hope you all can get your vaccination(s) this month if you have not had them, and hang on, keep following the safe living rules.  Numbers seem to be going up again in various places - what the cause of that is up in the air.

Be safe! 


Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 02, 2021, 04:27:12 pm
I received the J&J vaccine.  I am still not sure about mRNA based gene therapy.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 03, 2021, 12:43:38 pm
I received the J&J vaccine.  I am still not sure about mRNA based gene therapy.
Just so long as we all get one! I wouldn't have minded getting the one-shot flavor for its convenience, but I jumped on the first available like a hungry dog on a pork chop.

And now that I'm fully immune (or at least as immune as I'm like to get), I went to the movies last night.

For the first time in more than a year.

And it was freakin' excellent.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 03, 2021, 01:36:04 pm
I still have 10 or so days to full effectiveness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 03, 2021, 03:02:35 pm
I still have 10 or so days to full effectiveness.
And this morning I went out for coffee with a buddy I hadn't seen for a year!

Ten days from now you're gonna be a much happier person. I promise.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on April 03, 2021, 03:53:03 pm
I still have 10 or so days to full effectiveness.

How many days are needed?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 03, 2021, 11:47:40 pm
How many days are needed?

Not sure about other vaccines, but with the J&J, it is two weeks from the one and only jab to maximum effectiveness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 03, 2021, 11:49:30 pm
My daughter, who has had Covid, lost her sense of smell.  She got the Pfizer vaccine last week, and her sense of smell came back...but everything smells like “death” and “rotten”.  She says it awful.  She doesn’t want the second jab. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on April 03, 2021, 11:58:15 pm
My daughter, who has had Covid, lost her sense of smell.  She got the Pfizer vaccine last week, and her sense of smell came back...but everything smells like “death” and “rotten”.  She says it awful.  She doesn’t want the second jab.
I've heard that "smell therapy" helps some people in this situation. It's not because of the vaccine, it's part of the healing from loss of smell for certain people. Basically the person sniffs certain things and it helps retrain the mind to properly interpret what the smell receptors are sending. I think it's a long process. Good luck to her.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 04, 2021, 05:32:24 pm
I've heard that "smell therapy" helps some people in this situation. It's not because of the vaccine, it's part of the healing from loss of smell for certain people. Basically the person sniffs certain things and it helps retrain the mind to properly interpret what the smell receptors are sending. I think it's a long process. Good luck to her.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

You are probably right.  That is what her mother told her, and her mom is a healthcare first responder.  But, given that the sense of smell returned 12 hours after she took the vaccine, in her mind it is cause and effect.  And, it would be a heck of a coincidence.  I mean, it has been months.  But, how would mRNA trigger that?  Maybe it is some sort of allergic reaction?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on April 04, 2021, 06:02:59 pm
You are probably right.  That is what her mother told her, and her mom is a healthcare first responder.  But, given that the sense of smell returned 12 hours after she took the vaccine, in her mind it is cause and effect.  And, it would be a heck of a coincidence.  I mean, it has been months.  But, how would mRNA trigger that?  Maybe it is some sort of allergic reaction?
Yes the vaccine probably triggered the return of her sense of smell. Statistics I've seen are that about 1/3 of Covid long haulers experience a reduction in symptoms after getting the Pfizer vaccine (1/3 no change, 1/3 worsening). But a significant number who got their smell back even without the vaccine had symptoms like your daughter's. It's unfortunate and I hope she gets back to normal before long.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 04, 2021, 06:12:17 pm
Yes the vaccine probably triggered the return of her sense of smell. Statistics I've seen are that about 1/3 of Covid long haulers experience a reduction in symptoms after getting the Pfizer vaccine (1/3 no change, 1/3 worsening). But a significant number who got their smell back even without the vaccine had symptoms like your daughter's. It's unfortunate and I hope she gets back to normal before long.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk
Rachel, how have you been feeling? Any untoward reactions to your shot?
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on April 04, 2021, 06:34:44 pm
Rachel, how have you been feeling? Any untoward reactions to your shot?

Untoward?  No. 

Mild soreness immediately after the vaccine, which went away or wasn't noticeable at all until this morning when it was a little sore again.  Other than that, nothing at all.  And, they warn about soreness, headaches, etc..  None of that yet.  I assume if I don't feel anything after 5 days, it's not going to happen. 

So far, I'd recommend the J&J.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Lady Sarah on April 04, 2021, 07:16:22 pm
I received my second dose of the Pfizer vaccine on March 30th. So far, I have felt no side effects at all, and am perfectly healthy for someone in their mid 50's.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 08, 2021, 01:31:26 pm
Kidlet got shot #2 this morning!    :D :D :D

She came back sore and cranky, but that was because the cops had blocked off the highway exits into our town. Poor thing had to drive a whole extra mile to the next exit. How today's youth suffers.

She got an appointment so early because she works food service. The restaurant's owner made the curious decision to make both rounds of appointments for the entire staff on the same days. I guess everyone was a little out of sorts the day after the first round, and operations were a little creaky. I don't think i'll be ordering from them tomorrow.   :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 08, 2021, 01:41:06 pm
Yes the vaccine probably triggered the return of her sense of smell. Statistics I've seen are that about 1/3 of Covid long haulers experience a reduction in symptoms after getting the Pfizer vaccine (1/3 no change, 1/3 worsening). But a significant number who got their smell back even without the vaccine had symptoms like your daughter's. It's unfortunate and I hope she gets back to normal before long.

Sent from my dual-floppy Victor 9000 using Tapatalk

Just saw a blurb on CNN about this phenomenon. There's still speculation about what the vaccine could be doing, but one thought is that long-haulers may have virus lurking somewhere in their bodies, and their immune system finally roots it out once the vaccine takes effect. Another thought is that fighting off the virus triggered some sort of autoimmune problem, and the vaccine somehow "resets" the immune system.

Here's a piece from NPR from a few days ago:

https://www.npr.org/2021/03/28/982034977/how-the-coronavirus-vaccines-affect-long-haul-covid-19-patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on April 19, 2021, 06:47:04 pm
The big insight I had from this week's Sunday morning talk shows was Fauci's explanation of why we who have had our vaccinations should keep wearing masks: it's to keep the unvaccinated safe.

It's to keep us safe, too, though. No vaccine is 100% effective, and we can still catch Covid and get sick, though our chances of it are now much, much lower.

The real point is that we can be infected carriers of the virus and not feel sick at all. There is initial research that the vaccine makes it hard for us to carry the virus, but I don't think anyone takes it as conclusive yet. Controlled studies are underway.

If you are vaccinated but carrying the virus, it's a matter of common decency to still keep a mask on. Lowers your chances of passing the virus on. I read that as of yesterday, 50% of adults in the USA have had at least one shot, which is amazing, but that leaves 50% of us vulnerable to a lethal infection. I dearly want to go cough on everyone who refuses to get their shots, refuses to wear masks, refuses to social distance, and generally refuses to behave like anything but an ass in the name of some false "patriotism," but I'm not going to take it out on my local folks.

Anyone lives where they try to make trans kids illegal, you have my blessing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 14, 2021, 01:17:43 pm
Far out. Mask free!

I guess this comes with several caveats. I can still carry the virus, but my vaccinated body will probably suppress it to low enough levels that I won't turn infectious (I can even test positive without being infectious!). If that fails, I can unfortunately become an asymptomatic carrier and start infecting others. And no vaccine is 100% perfect, so it's still possible I can become symptomatic and even get very sick, and there's always the remote risk of being on the tail end of the distribution and dying. Just because nobody has doesn't mean nobody can. Even the Cubs won the World Series.

The other night I saw one of those virology talking heads say that we're now heading into a phase where there will soon be two populations in the USA: the vaccinated and the infected. That seemed a little histrionic.

All the same, there was a ring of truth to it. A lot of folks will still refuse to take the jab for political reasons, though I've seen polling that shows more and more are coming around. There are always the usual anti-science types. You can also count on seeing people who will get sick, falsely claim they've taken the vaccine, and go around screeching that the vaccine doesn't work.

What a world, what a world.



A few interesting viral things have recently caught my eye:


- Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, points out that many of the virus's "variants of concern" have very similar mutations, and that in fact what we're seeing is evidence of convergent evolution. In a way, that's amazingly cool because it once again demonstrates how right Wallace and Darwin were.

In another way, it's absolutely terrifying. Ecologically speaking, and taken as a whole, the virus is evolving to get better and better at infecting us, and the more infectious strains are spreading faster and crowding out the older strains. Not only that, but strains that are even more infectious are going to evolve from their highly infectious mommas.

This points out how important it is to get the entire world vaccinated, and fast: the quicker we can get all of us vaccinated, the fewer human petri dishes there are for the virus to evolve new strains in. I don't know much about all this intellectual property rights stuff, but I do know that a number of new vaccines will soon be coming online that don't require fancy refrigeration and that can be made fast and cheap and distributed easily, and thank goodness for that.



- Science magazine today printed a letter signed by eighteen serious scientists at serious universities across multiple serious disciplines demanding that a serious, "proper investigation" be given to the possibility that the virus did not originate in the wild. They point out how the WHO report gave short shrift to the possibility and that the head of the WHO himself admits that "the report's consideration of evidence supporting a laboratory accident was insufficient"

Here's a link to the Science article:  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1

Here's a link to the WaPo's continuously updating coronavirus stories. If you catch it today, the story should still be there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/05/14/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/



- Finally, this article is truly tl;dr, and it's truly slanted, but the technical science part is the important part. I think it (or something like it) may have been the basis for Sen. Paul's lively dispute with Dr. Fauci the other day.

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

Outside of the political implications, the science part is wildly interesting for a geeky gal like me. I'm dumb at biochemistry, but even I could understand it.

Moreover, it does point out a few things about the evolutionary aspects of the virus, which I do understand, and which makes one think hard about the natural origin hypothesis. One of which is that if the virus really did originate in an animal, why, after two years, hasn't that animal been found yet? I'd be going ape (heh) looking for that creature. And if the virus did actually evolve from some intermediary critter, why haven't evolutionarily similar but less perfectly-adapted-to-specifically-infect-humans viruses been found yet? Again, I'd be batsh*t (heh) worried about those, and I don't know what kind of urgency is being put behind finding them.

I get it, poo happens, we don't know what we don't know, there's always the chance the virus popped up by random mutation, and the Cubs did win the World Series, but gee whiz. When the Chinese government locks down all the files at its virology lab and silences its researchers... hmmmm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on May 16, 2021, 09:56:17 pm
Far out. Mask free!

I guess this comes with several caveats. I can still carry the virus, but my vaccinated body will probably suppress it to low enough levels that I won't turn infectious (I can even test positive without being infectious!). If that fails, I can unfortunately become an asymptomatic carrier and start infecting others. And no vaccine is 100% perfect, so it's still possible I can become symptomatic and even get very sick, and there's always the remote risk of being on the tail end of the distribution and dying. Just because nobody has doesn't mean nobody can. Even the Cubs won the World Series.

The other night I saw one of those virology talking heads say that we're now heading into a phase where there will soon be two populations in the USA: the vaccinated and the infected. That seemed a little histrionic.

All the same, there was a ring of truth to it. A lot of folks will still refuse to take the jab for political reasons, though I've seen polling that shows more and more are coming around. There are always the usual anti-science types. You can also count on seeing people who will get sick, falsely claim they've taken the vaccine, and go around screeching that the vaccine doesn't work.

What a world, what a world.



A few interesting viral things have recently caught my eye:


- Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, points out that many of the virus's "variants of concern" have very similar mutations, and that in fact what we're seeing is evidence of convergent evolution. In a way, that's amazingly cool because it once again demonstrates how right Wallace and Darwin were.

In another way, it's absolutely terrifying. Ecologically speaking, and taken as a whole, the virus is evolving to get better and better at infecting us, and the more infectious strains are spreading faster and crowding out the older strains. Not only that, but strains that are even more infectious are going to evolve from their highly infectious mommas.

This points out how important it is to get the entire world vaccinated, and fast: the quicker we can get all of us vaccinated, the fewer human petri dishes there are for the virus to evolve new strains in. I don't know much about all this intellectual property rights stuff, but I do know that a number of new vaccines will soon be coming online that don't require fancy refrigeration and that can be made fast and cheap and distributed easily, and thank goodness for that.



- Science magazine today printed a letter signed by eighteen serious scientists at serious universities across multiple serious disciplines demanding that a serious, "proper investigation" be given to the possibility that the virus did not originate in the wild. They point out how the WHO report gave short shrift to the possibility and that the head of the WHO himself admits that "the report's consideration of evidence supporting a laboratory accident was insufficient"

Here's a link to the Science article:  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1

Here's a link to the WaPo's continuously updating coronavirus stories. If you catch it today, the story should still be there:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/05/14/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/



- Finally, this article is truly tl;dr, and it's truly slanted, but the technical science part is the important part. I think it (or something like it) may have been the basis for Sen. Paul's lively dispute with Dr. Fauci the other day.

https://nicholaswade.medium.com/origin-of-covid-following-the-clues-6f03564c038

Outside of the political implications, the science part is wildly interesting for a geeky gal like me. I'm dumb at biochemistry, but even I could understand it.

Moreover, it does point out a few things about the evolutionary aspects of the virus, which I do understand, and which makes one think hard about the natural origin hypothesis. One of which is that if the virus really did originate in an animal, why, after two years, hasn't that animal been found yet? I'd be going ape (heh) looking for that creature. And if the virus did actually evolve from some intermediary critter, why haven't evolutionarily similar but less perfectly-adapted-to-specifically-infect-humans viruses been found yet? Again, I'd be batsh*t (heh) worried about those, and I don't know what kind of urgency is being put behind finding them.

I get it, poo happens, we don't know what we don't know, there's always the chance the virus popped up by random mutation, and the Cubs did win the World Series, but gee whiz. When the Chinese government locks down all the files at its virology lab and silences its researchers... hmmmm.

More likely than not, the virus originated in the Wuhan lab.  I can't prove it, but the evidence supporting this theory is overwhelming.  Just listen to Joe Rogan's podcast (Spotify show) interview of Josh Rogin Episode #1640.  For the discussion of the origins of the virus, start listening @ 34:23  which is fully explained in his book "Chaos Under Heaven".

We don't KNOW for a fact that it was made in the lab, but it is the only explanation that matches all of the evidence.  We do know that the U.S. government made researching the gain of function research illegal here, but that the lab in Wuhan received funding from the U.S. CDC to make bat viruses more receptive to human lungs.  We know the lab in Wuhan was understaffed and sloppy.  There was a program of $200,000,000 U.S. funded research which Obama banned here, and the CDC moved it to China.

We know the bats that do have the root virus are 1,000 miles from Wuhan, but the lab doing the research on the virus was in Wuhan.  We know that the first documented cases were in Wuhan.  We know that the WHO assigned the investigation of the lab as the origins of the virus to people who were financially dependent upon the program continuing.

The CDC, and in particular Fauci himself arranged the funding for the Chinese research of the virus.  And, now Fauci wants to double down and expand funding for the research.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 23, 2021, 02:38:41 pm
More likely than not, the virus originated in the Wuhan lab.  I can't prove it, but the evidence supporting this theory is overwhelming.  Just listen to Joe Rogan's podcast (Spotify show) interview of Josh Rogin Episode #1640.  For the discussion of the origins of the virus, start listening @ 34:23  which is fully explained in his book "Chaos Under Heaven".

We don't KNOW for a fact that it was made in the lab, but it is the only explanation that matches all of the evidence.  We do know that the U.S. government made researching the gain of function research illegal here, but that the lab in Wuhan received funding from the U.S. CDC to make bat viruses more receptive to human lungs.  We know the lab in Wuhan was understaffed and sloppy.  There was a program of $200,000,000 U.S. funded research which Obama banned here, and the CDC moved it to China.

We know the bats that do have the root virus are 1,000 miles from Wuhan, but the lab doing the research on the virus was in Wuhan.  We know that the first documented cases were in Wuhan.  We know that the WHO assigned the investigation of the lab as the origins of the virus to people who were financially dependent upon the program continuing.

The CDC, and in particular Fauci himself arranged the funding for the Chinese research of the virus.  And, now Fauci wants to double down and expand funding for the research.

Rachel, I seriously love what you bring to this thread. You read widely and gather data broadly. I do Plato; you, Aristotle.

And holy smokes. $200m? With that kind of scratch, they should have been able to build a better containment facility.

Rachel, where's your source for that figure? It's so eye-poppingly huge that I can't imagine how every serious journalist in the world can have ignored it. I'm afraid that some dude saying some thing on Joe Rogan's podcast doesn't do it for me, but you're good at digging through databases, so if the dude is telling the truth, I bet you can verify the numbers. It has to be a total amount spent over several years, and at any rate it has to have spent on several subcategories of work. For instance, I know they were working to upgrade safety protocols in that lab. For all the good it did us.  :-\

Can you break the money out by year and large budget line-items?

Gotta say that I agree with you that the natural origin hypothesis seems dodgier and dodgier. A persistent inability or unwillingness to find the actual animal host(s) and document the actual path of zoonotic transmission, and to do so transparently and satisfactorily to hordes of skeptical foreign scientists, is ugly fishy.

In my mind there's nothing shameful about admitting that a lab accident happened. Lab accidents do happen, and from what I've read, lab researchers elsewhere have been infected by the viruses they were working on. This world isn't perfect. Doing very dangerous research with poor safety protocols at a leaky laboratory, though, can't be excused. National prestige doesn't count for much when millions die, and face erodes with loss of credibility.

All the evidence pointing toward a lab accident puts me in mind of the Demon Core: created from naturally-occurring elements, formed into an unnatural configuration expressly to kill humans, and ending up doing so via sloppy protocols in lab accidents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on May 23, 2021, 09:10:45 pm
I guess everyone is “some dude”, but some dudes are respected journalist with great credibility and a lot of well published experience.  Glenn Greenwald comes to mind.  I guess Greenwald is just some dude, but then again...

Josh Rogin graduated with a B.A. in international affairs from the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. After graduation, he worked as a journalist covering foreign policy and national security for Newsweek, The Daily Beast, Foreign Policy, Bloomberg View, The Washington Post, Federal Computer Week, Asahi Shimbun of Japan, and Congressional Quarterly. He is currently a foreign policy columnist for Global Opinions section of The Washington Post and a political analyst for CNN.


Rogin was a 2008-2009 National Press Foundation's Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellow and a 2009 military reporting fellow with the Knight Center for Specialized Journalism. In 2011, Rogin was a finalist for the Livingston Award for Young Journalists and the 2011 recipient of the Interaction Award for Excellence in International Reporting.

He isn’t exactly some random person off the streets, he is one of the most respected investigative journalists in the world.





Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Angelaney on May 24, 2021, 03:48:12 am
^^
Some of the most stupid people i've ever met, had college/university degree's.

A persons qualifications mean nothing to me, especially when people claim to be an expert in a subject they didn't even qualify in.
In the UK right now, we have one "Linda Baud" who is being praised as a "public health expert" regarding the coronavirus problem in UK, but she has no qualification for that, her degree is in "social science". The real experts refuse say what they're being told to say, so the authorities claim she's the real expert.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 25, 2021, 05:54:04 pm
I guess everyone is “some dude”, but some dudes are respected journalist with great credibility and a lot of well published experience.  Glenn Greenwald comes to mind.  I guess Greenwald is just some dude, but then again...

Josh Rogin graduated with a B.A. in international affairs from the George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. After graduation, he worked as a journalist covering foreign policy and national security for Newsweek, The Daily Beast, Foreign Policy, Bloomberg View, The Washington Post, Federal Computer Week, Asahi Shimbun of Japan, and Congressional Quarterly. He is currently a foreign policy columnist for Global Opinions section of The Washington Post and a political analyst for CNN.


Rogin was a 2008-2009 National Press Foundation's Paul Miller Washington Reporting Fellow and a 2009 military reporting fellow with the Knight Center for Specialized Journalism. In 2011, Rogin was a finalist for the Livingston Award for Young Journalists and the 2011 recipient of the Interaction Award for Excellence in International Reporting.

He isn’t exactly some random person off the streets, he is one of the most respected investigative journalists in the world.

Rachel, you're absolutely right. That was a cheap shot I shouldn't have taken. I apologize.

I'm afraid I've become far too knee-jerky about considering my sources of information.

That's also why I was knee-jerkish about Joe Rogan. The man's an idiot by his own admission. I don't expect him to book serious guests with serious credentials and serious credibility when he feels empowered to go rogue and and make up his own rotten advice on vaccines. I got no trust. I guess if I were doing a book tour, I'd probably go on his show, too, but I'd feel better about being interviewed by Terry Gross.

The other day the WSJ published a leaked intelligence report that three researchers from that virology lab sought hospital treatment for an undisclosed viral infection back in November, 2019.

Caveat, caveat, the report is as yet unconfirmed, the specific illness is not known, nor is its severity. November is cold and flu season, and I've read that people in China often go to hospitals for primary medical care instead of doctors' offices, so they may not have been all that ill. Former CDC director Redfield thinks the virus may have been circulating in October, not November. The report is, at best, circumstantial evidence. There's no way I can sensibly rush to judgment. Similar reports have come out in the past but haven't been quite so specific, so it isn't exactly super-new information. The timing of the leak is mighty convenient to get the jabbersphere building public opinion about the lab-release theory.

But it did the trick. The MSM today is doing all sorts of pieces on the lab-release theory. I think that early on, Occam's Razor pretty much demanded that we give more weight to the zoonotic origin theory of the virus. That's where these viruses had always come from before. Not that Covid couldn't have been a lab accident, but when you hear hoofbeats you should look for horses, not zebras. Now, though, as time has passed and for reasons in posts above, a lab accident seems more and more credible to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: RandiL on May 25, 2021, 10:41:52 pm
This discussion has been interesting, with great content from Rachel and BG. Here's a fairly complete timeline from the Washington Post's Fact Checker today.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/25/timeline-how-wuhan-lab-leak-theory-suddenly-became-credible/)

Of particular interest to me is that they still have not pinpointed a natural origin for the virus. While it's possible one or a few wild animals got the new mutation and spread it to humans, you'd think it would have continued spreading among the wild population just as it did among humans and would be detectible. It has not been detected yet, despite significant effort at searching.

Also one of the latest entries in the article I referenced above is about the "furin cleavage site" which increases infectivity in humans:
Quote
May 5: Former New York Times science reporter Nicholas Wade, writing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/ (https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/), reviews the evidence and makes a strong case for the lab-leak theory. He focuses in particular on the furin cleavage site, which increases viral infectivity for human cells. His analysis yields this quote from David Baltimore, a virologist and former president of the California Institute of Technology: “When I first saw the furin cleavage site in the viral sequence, with its arginine codons, I said to my wife it was the smoking gun for the origin of the virus. These features make a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural origin for SARS2.”

The lab leak hypothesis is gaining credibility in my mind. Not so sure about whether the virus had engineering work done to it, or if it was simply stored and studied in the lab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on May 26, 2021, 12:00:59 am
I believe it was “gain of function” work by the lab.

Evidence?  As you said, they can’t find a wild animal of any species that carries the virus, and bats don’t get infected easily from exposure.  It’s hard to make a bat infected.  But, as you pointed out, it is easy to infect humans. 

That is probably because they used mice that have been breed to have human lung tissue, and they exposed them to the virus and did generational studies, making it more and more transmissible until...it got out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 28, 2021, 04:20:24 pm
All things considered, maybe I should lighten up on the "they haven't found the animal host yet" line of thought.

SARS first hit in November of 2002. The PRC notified the WHO of the SARS outbreak in early February, 2003, after it had spread to Hong Kong. It was in Vietnam and Canada by late February. I was working for a major international airline at the time. Scary stuff.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002%E2%80%932004_SARS_outbreak

However, it wasn't until 2005 that researchers were able to locate bats that carried what looked like progenitors of the original SARS virus. Nor were they able to conclusively identify an intermediate host. They have some good candidates, but nothing for sure.

https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/060101_batsars


I guess I'll continue to be patient with my ignorance.

Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on May 28, 2021, 04:33:21 pm
Bats don’t get infected easily from exposure.  It’s hard to make a bat infected.

From what I've read, it's almost impossible not to infect a bat. The little cuties are seething cauldrons of viruses. They just don't get sick from them.

https://www.wired.com/2014/10/bats-ebola-disease-reservoir-hosts/
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 04, 2021, 02:39:36 pm
A few good reads I've come across of late.

The MLM is lately taken to issuing mea culpas just like I have about dismissing the lab leak theory because of its early proponents. Senator Cotton started talking about the lab leak theory early on, but he's famously a China hawk and can get pretty far out there. Senator Paul promoted it, too, but we've all seen how he handles transgender issues when given a public forum. Admit it - we all do it. Insisting that simple public health measures are ineffective because politics can't have saved many lives.

Cognitive bias stinks, don't it? When someone has an agenda that doesn't match your own, it doesn't mean they're always and inevitably wrong. And yet we get summaries first, subtleties disregarded; headlines next with words twisted and context ignored; then mass distribution to audiences primed to hear what they already wanted to be told.



Some of the better apologies, with my apologies if they don't open for you:


https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/06/the-lab-leak-theory-inside-the-fight-to-uncover-covid-19s-origins

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-lab-leak-theory-intelligence-biden/2021/05/28/786d57ac-bfe6-11eb-83e3-0ca705a96ba4_story.html

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/lab-leak-hypothesis-covid-liberal-media-science-biden-trump-china.html

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/the-conservative-media-double-standard  (Forewarning: This is a political newsletter, and I'm not advocating for or against their ideas. All the same, I'm a sucker for excellent writing, and they're excellent writers. The coronavirus stuff is in Section 2. A fun bit about Carlton "Pudge" Fisk is in Section 3.)


Last but not least, a well-written look back at plague policy in 2020. Dig the publication date!  :o

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 04, 2021, 03:33:45 pm
I still can't post links.  But, I can post quotes, so:

Quote
An institute “funded by American dollars is trying to teach a bat virus to infect human cells, then there is a virus” in the same city as that lab. It is “not being intellectually honest not to consider the hypothesis” of a lab escape.

And given how aggressively China blocked efforts at a transparent investigation, and in light of its government’s own history of lying, obfuscating, and crushing dissent, it’s fair to ask if Shi Zhengli, the Wuhan Institute’s lead coronavirus researcher, would be at liberty to report a leak from her lab even if she’d wanted to.
Vanity Fair Article entitled "The Lab-Leak Theory: Inside the Fight to Uncover COVID-19’s Origins"

Quote
A small group within the State Department’s Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance bureau had been studying the Institute (the Wuhan Institute of Virology) for months. The group had recently acquired classified intelligence suggesting that three WIV researchers conducting gain-of-function experiments on coronavirus samples had fallen ill in the autumn of 2019, before the COVID-19 outbreak was known to have started.

As officials at the meeting discussed what they could share with the public, they were advised by Christopher Park, the director of the State Department’s Biological Policy Staff in the Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, not to say anything that would point to the U.S. government’s own role in gain-of-function research, according to documentation of the meeting obtained by Vanity Fair.
Ibid.

Quote
No one at the State Department had much interest in Wuhan’s laboratories at the start of the pandemic, but they were gravely concerned with China’s apparent cover-up of the outbreak’s severity. The government had shut down the Huanan market, ordered laboratory samples destroyed, claimed the right to review any scientific research about COVID-19 ahead of publication, and expelled a team of Wall Street Journal reporters.

In January 2020, a Wuhan ophthalmologist named Li Wenliang, who’d tried to warn his colleagues that the pneumonia could be a form of SARS was arrested, accused of disrupting the social order, and forced to write a self-criticism. He died of COVID-19 in February, lionized by the Chinese public as a hero and whistleblower.

“You had Chinese [government] coercion and suppression,” said David Feith of the State Department’s East Asia bureau. “We were very concerned that they were covering it up and whether the information coming to the World Health Organization was reliable.”

Quote
The idea of a lab leak first came to NSC officials not from hawkish Trumpists but from Chinese social media users, who began sharing their suspicions as early as January 2020. Then, in February, a research paper coauthored by two Chinese scientists, based at separate Wuhan universities, appeared online as a preprint. It tackled a fundamental question: How did a novel bat coronavirus get to a major metropolis of 11 million people in central China, in the dead of winter when most bats were hibernating, and turn a market where bats weren’t sold into the epicenter of an outbreak?
The paper offered an answer: “We screened the area around the seafood market and identified two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus.” The first was the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, which sat just 280 meters from the Huanan market and had been known to collect hundreds of bat samples. The second, the researchers wrote, was the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

The paper came to a staggeringly blunt conclusion about COVID-19: “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.... Regulations may be taken to relocate these laboratories far away from city center and other densely populated places.” Almost as soon as the paper appeared on the internet, it disappeared, but not before U.S. government officials took note.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 04, 2021, 03:51:43 pm
Quote
Three researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, all connected with gain-of-function research on coronaviruses, had fallen ill in November 2019 and appeared to have visited the hospital with symptoms similar to COVID-19, three government officials told Vanity Fair.

While it is not clear what had sickened them, “these were not the janitors,” said the former State Department official. “They were active researchers. The dates were among the absolute most arresting part of the picture, because they are smack where they would be if this was the origin.” The reaction inside the State Department was, “Holy <poo>,” one former senior official recalled. “We should probably tell our bosses.” The investigation roared back to life.

An intelligence analyst working with David Asher sifted through classified channels and turned up a report that outlined why the lab-leak hypothesis was plausible. It had been written in May by researchers at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, which performs national security research for the Department of Energy. But it appeared to have been buried within the classified collections system.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 04, 2021, 04:03:53 pm
See also:

"Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag"

Quote
We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive. We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag. Interestingly, despite the inserts being discontinuous on the primary amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the 2019-nCoV suggests that they converge to constitute the receptor binding site. The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature. This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus.

That study was withdrawn by its publisher because of backlash in the scientific community (which is very funding driven), and not for technical or scientific deficiency.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 04, 2021, 04:12:05 pm
This is an article about vaccine research that relies upon the FACT that the HIV and Covid 19 viruses both have similar if not identical function.  This probably did not evolve in nature, as no Coronavirus ever found in nature has this protein.

"Shape-Shifting Viral Proteins: Key to HIV and COVID-19 Vaccines"  amfAR
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Devlyn on June 10, 2021, 09:16:32 am
I got my second Astra-Zeneca jab yesterday and it has wiped me out. I have zero energy and I'm alternating between sweating and chills.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 11, 2021, 12:24:21 pm
See also:

"Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag"

That study was withdrawn by its publisher because of backlash in the scientific community (which is very funding driven), and not for technical or scientific deficiency.

Great digging, as always, Rachel, but I'm not so sure as I agree with your summary.


From what I can piece together on this paper, the original article was a pre-print, not anything peer-reviewed. I think the scientific community's main criticism was that the paper's method could be pointing to any number of creatures, not just HIV-1. Cryptosporidium and malaria were two cited examples, but there are tons more.

That doesn't sound to me that it proved that Covid couldn't have been man-made. It does sound to me like the paper's methodology was rushed and its conclusions were insufficiently supported.

https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/no-hiv-insertions-were-not-identified-in-the-2019-coronavirus-contrary-to-claims-based-on-questionable-bioinformatics-study/

It's all summed up in a Reuters article debunking another topic that's truly tl;dr, but I'll paste the relevant parts below and then put the link at the very bottom if y'all want to read the whole article.

THE REPORT

The report, published in the very early days of the virus and entitled “Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag”, claimed to have found “4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses”, adding that these four “unique” spikes were similar to some DNA sequences in HIV-1 (the most common type of HIV).

EXPLAINING FOUR INSERTIONS, HIV AND GLYCOPROTEINS
Dr. Catherine Blish, infectious disease specialist at Stanford Medicine, told Reuters via email that the “insertions” mentioned in the withdrawn report, refer to the “extra amino acids, the building blocks of proteins”, that are found in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2.

The spike protein of coronavirus, Blish explained, is the protein that “mediates entry into the cell”. In HIV, the analogous entry protein is the gp160 (which is composed of the two glycoproteins gp120 and gp41). “These viral proteins interact with cellular proteins to allow the virus enter a cell”, she said.

Blish explained the issue with the withdrawn paper’s author’s interpretation: “the authors did not include bat coronaviruses, including the bat strain that bears the strongest resemblance to SARS-CoV-2.”

Blish referred to another paper co-authored by virus expert Feng Gao which concluded that the highlighted patterns in the withdrawn report are not HIV-specific. According to Gao’s paper, the motifs were also found in at least “100 identical or highly homologous” sequences in “host genes of mammalian, insects, bacterial and others” and also in “all kinds of viruses from bacteriophage, influenza, to giant eukaryotic.”

According to Blish, this suggests that this sequence patterns are “merely common motifs in nature.”

According to Gao’s paper, the four insertions mentioned in the withdrawn report are present not only in SARS-CoV-2 but also in three sequences of bat coronavirus found in 2018 and 2013.

Coincidentally, experts noted that in addition to SARS-CoV-2 and HIV, the DNA protein sequences mentioned in the withdrawn study “are found in many different organisms, including the ones that cause cryptosporidiosis and malaria”. Further evaluation shows that “these proteins are not unique to coronaviruses and are common source of viral biology in a huge number of ailments caused by a variety of actors”.

Fact checker Health Feedback addressed the withdrawn report here and found that “the sequences analyzed by the study authors were so short that it is easy to find similarities to a wide variety of organisms”.


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-hiv-covid-explained-idUSKBN29C26E


That healthfeedback site is p great. Here's a cool article with some great data and graphics that shows the state of the state of scientists' thinking about the natural vs man-made nature of Covid as of May last year.

Things don't seem much different than today. A few people claiming there's no possible way the virus can be man-made, some saying it must have been, and most saying it doesn't necessarily look like it for these reasons, but let's withhold judgment until all the facts are in.

https://healthfeedback.org/did-the-covid-19-virus-originate-from-a-lab-or-nature-examining-the-evidence-for-different-hypotheses-of-the-novel-coronavirus-origins/
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 11, 2021, 12:27:21 pm
I got my second Astra-Zeneca jab yesterday and it has wiped me out. I have zero energy and I'm alternating between sweating and chills.

Aargh. Sorry to hear it, amiga. My heinie was absolutely dragging the day after my second shot.

Bad news/good news: you're having a rough day, but your immune system rocks!
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 11, 2021, 01:24:33 pm
This is an article about vaccine research that relies upon the FACT that the HIV and Covid 19 viruses both have similar if not identical function.  This probably did not evolve in nature, as no Coronavirus ever found in nature has this protein.

"Shape-Shifting Viral Proteins: Key to HIV and COVID-19 Vaccines"  amfAR

Can you explain more? I don't know much about virology.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: ChrissyRyan on June 11, 2021, 07:08:19 pm
People are still dying of this awful virus.  I rejoice that the numbers of the seriously ill and the deaths are decreasing a lot in the USA.

Worldwide there are numerous areas that are COVID-19 hotspots for many.

Please keep all of these people throughout the world in your thoughts and prayers.  Be safe. 


Love,

Chrissy
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: barbie on June 17, 2021, 02:37:13 pm
I am not yet vaccinated, but the S. Korean government is boosting it recently. Most aged people are now vaccinated. Two people were dead from the side effect of AstraZeneca while other deaths are not yet confirmed to be directly related to vaccination.

https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=population&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=JPN~KOR~AUS~NZL~TWN~USA~BRA~SGP~ITA~FRA~DEU~GBR

barbie~~


Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 23, 2021, 06:37:00 pm
I can speak regarding my area, but not the rest of the country. 

In my area, the lower income people and people on government assistance are extremely resistant to getting vaccinated.  I spoke someone just this morning who if afraid of getting the vaccine.  He is a 20 something black male of modest income.  He doesn't trust the vaccine, he doesn't trust the government and he thinks that he either will not get sick, or will get over it on his own. 

Truthfully, he is probably right in his belief that he will get well on his own if he get's sick.  He is young and he is fit.  He doesn't have cancer, diabetes or any other significant risk factor.  >99% of people in his demographic will not suffer significant long term health problems from getting Covid 19.  His ONLY significant risk factor is his race, which statistically is more likely to get the virus, and more likely to be hospitalized if they do get the virus.

In my area, many black people have the idea that government vaccines don't necessarily work as advertised.  They are ALL well aware of the "Tuskegee Experiment".  If the government wants to push the vaccine to black people, they assume that the government isn't doing it to be nice to them. 

And, they don't trust big pharma.  And, they know that big Pharma has NO LIABILITY if things go badly.  They don't want to be lab test subjects.  And, that is what everyone who get's the vaccine is, including me.  I got my vaccine On April 1, and my arm is still sore.  In fact, it is getting worse.  And, no one has any idea what to do about it if it doesn't just go away on its own.  I feel (right now) like someone has punched me in the arm (hard). 

I can certainly understand why any young healthy person would not want to take an experimental vaccine.  And, the argument that they don't trust "science" goes nowhere, because "science" says the vaccines are still in the experimental stage.  We don't have any idea what the long term effects are.  For me, so far, it is a sore arm.  But, I have significant risk factors.  Better a sore arm than dead from Covid 19.

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 28, 2021, 10:35:01 pm
I got my vaccine On April 1, and my arm is still sore.  In fact, it is getting worse.  And, no one has any idea what to do about it if it doesn't just go away on its own.  I feel (right now) like someone has punched me in the arm (hard). 

Yikes! Have you talked to your doc about it any? DW complained about her vaccinated arm hurting for such a long time that I was convinced she had a connective tissue injury.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on June 29, 2021, 11:34:11 am
No.  What can he say about it?  CDC doesn’t have anything.  Janssen Pharmaceuticals doesn’t have any advice.  I am sure he wouldn’t tell me anything they haven’t.  They both said “it goes away in most people within a few days.”  So, what if it doesn’t?  “Ugh, call somebody else, we don’t have an answer.”

I suppose when you take an experiment drug, you should expect no one to know about complications.  That’s why it is still experimental.

It does make me angry that after I told them about the problem, they haven’t followed up with more questions.  It almost seems like they don’t WANT to hear about problems, because they want people to feel good about getting the vaccine. So, blind eye to the problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on June 30, 2021, 02:01:03 pm
No.  What can he say about it?  CDC doesn’t have anything.  Janssen Pharmaceuticals doesn’t have any advice.  I am sure he wouldn’t tell me anything they haven’t.  They both said “it goes away in most people within a few days.”  So, what if it doesn’t?  “Ugh, call somebody else, we don’t have an answer.”

I suppose when you take an experiment drug, you should expect no one to know about complications.  That’s why it is still experimental.

It does make me angry that after I told them about the problem, they haven’t followed up with more questions.  It almost seems like they don’t WANT to hear about problems, because they want people to feel good about getting the vaccine. So, blind eye to the problems.


Yeah, that is creepy. If there's simply nothing for it, you'd think they'd be doing themselves a big favor if they let people know. Could also be because the reaction always has gone away, but they have no way of predicting when yours will.


DW's pain finally melted away. It did take quite some time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on July 05, 2021, 02:30:37 pm
DW's pain finally melted away. It did take quite some time.

I took the opportunity over the weekend to clarify with DW what actually happened. She said that at its worst, she lost one degree of freedom of motion in her shoulder from weakness and pain; that the serious pain took about three months to subside; and that she still has a bit of residual tenderness even now, some five months after her second shot.

She also said her massage therapist told her he knows of quite a few people with similar pain.

Might not be the happiest of news for you, Rachel, but you most certainly don't seem unique.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Rachel Montgomery on July 05, 2021, 04:07:02 pm
Once again, I experience something that most people don’t, but I am not alone.  Oh well, maybe that is everyone’s experience at some time or another.
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Battle Goddess on July 06, 2021, 01:50:33 pm
Once again, I experience something that most people don’t, but I am not alone.  Oh well, maybe that is everyone’s experience at some time or another.

Certainly that of this community's!   ::)
Title: Re: Coronavirus?
Post by: Northern Star Girl on July 21, 2021, 12:18:42 pm
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