OK, one more time with feeling.
People, like voters, don't elect the President, states do. So the numbers don't matter until you break them down into electoral votes. And the biggest states are pretty blue. And, for the most part there is no real campaign in them. People in NYC and SF really don't see any Presidential ads, there no sense in wasting the money. So all that huge amount of money - and a billion is just a start, wait till they really start adding up the superpac money - is going to be poured into only a couple of states that really swing it.
But - and bookmark this so I won't have to say "I told you so" you'll just be able to come back and read it every day....
...the insane religious wingnuts conservative "values voters" now have their candidate (not really, they wanted Sara, but she's too busy being a grifter - and too smart - to actually run)*. And it's a guy who not only lost re-election a sitting senator, but lost by a record amount. But the people who control the party (who are now free to do what they want because of the Citizens United ruling) are going to insure that Romney - Mister 1% himself - wins. And the easy way to do that is to run negative ads that destroy (and it's not going to be hard, he's not ready for prime time) Santorum. That (plus Mitt's RINO stuff, and the Mormon deal) is going to turn off the very voters that the 'Pubs need to turn out in order to win. As is being shown in some very red states, getting out the vote is only half the battle, suppressing the opposition is the other half, and BO is not even going to need to try to do that, it's going to be a done deal before the convention.
That's the story, it's not that Obama has to win, they just have to make sure that Mitt loses, and the way that Mitt is going to have to go - or will be 'gone' for him by his corporate pals - to eliminate the competition is going to insure it. Look at the negative ads run in Iowa that sank Newt in one week and double it, then triple that (particularly in South Carolina, if Mitt wins there, then its all over), and that kind of campaign has been shown time in and time out to turn people off.
Long campaigns also turn people off. And the 'Pubs have been running since the day after they blew (like Linda Lovelace in a penis convention) the last election and woke up to find a black man in the White House. And as much as 'generic Republican' beats Obama, the 'Pubs actually have to run a real person, and lots and lots of people are already bored/tired/burned out by all the ones who have been running.
Incumbants have a huge advantage regardless of the party. People often credit that to the power of holding the office, and that is a huge advantage. But the bigger advantage - the one Obama has and the 'Pubs can't - is that he doesn't have to run a primary. Primaries divide parties, they don't unite them. And while you picked up the money sentence, you missed the more important fact that I listed before it. So I'll repete it, because it's critical.
Tomorrow, when the red, white and blue clown car heads off to South Carolina and New Hampshire all of those offices will close down. But tomorrow Obama will still have 8 full time offices up and running in Iowa.
And not just Iowa, but in all 50 states. While the opposition tears itself apart, Obama is busy building organizations, boots on the ground, real people (not virtual) doing real campaign work. And it's in place a year out from the election, while the 'Pubs won't really be able to do that until May at the earliest - but most likely not until the summer. That's what early money buys, organization. And organization wins elections that are close.
But, here is where it is now.
Bachman, Huntsman, and Perry (also Trump, Governor Timmy, and Huckabee who liked his Fox money more than his country apparently) are gone. Newt is dead in the water, but going out gracefully is not his style, so look for him to put the knife in Mitt's back (that Mitts superpacs put in Newt's back, so it's more like just returning it to him) on his way out. Trump will make 3rd Party noises, but would never actually do it.
Mitt 'won', but still has no excitement behind him, no sense of momentum. In four years he really didn't win any more 'Pub voters than he had last time. That's flat like soda left out in sun and rain. Yeah, he 'won' but 75% of the 'Pub voters didn't vote for him. That's that bad indication for him.
The religious right has their guy, and he's not not a winner. His negatives are huge, his electability marginal, his appeal outside that base is lower than zero. He's almost a crazy-train level hawk in a war weary country, all that attack Iran stuff is going to lose him votes. The anti-abortion, anti-gay stuff does not get him any more votes than he already has, and lose him votes in a general election in a ->-bleeped-<-ty economy. Destroying him is going to be so easy it's going to be hard not to look mean doing it. Even if he picks up ALL the rest of the values crowd that's only another 13-15% of the 'Pubs, so he's still not over 50% in his own party. It's a democratic wet dream to run against Rick Santorum.
Ron Paul did well, but he did as good as he's ever going to do. What's more I doubt that more than 25% of his supporters (5% of the Iowa vote) would support ANY other candidate. They LOVE Ron Paul, but don't really care for anyone else - it's like a political cult more than a political campaign. And, he spend a year building that kind of support in Iowa, but he's not going to be able to do that in any other state, all of which have more votes than Iowa does. But he's in it for the long haul, I don't think he dropped out last time until June, so he's going to be a pain, one that both Rick and Mitt are going to have to contend with, but one that has no value to either of them, or indeed the party. But the worst nightmare (a 3rd party run) is not going to happen because of his son.
* - I seriously doubt such a person could win a national election anyway. No matter who was running against them. We're a corporate-industrial state, not a theocratic backwater. The more they pour on the religion, the deeper they sink with the swing voters who have no real attachment to those issues like abortion, prayer in school, gay marriage but who do care deeply about economic issues, and their own economic situation these days (bad and looking worse in the future) in particular.
... and if you though I was cynical/realistic before, wait till you read this...I also have no doubt that sometime long about last summer Sara Palin got a plain anonymous package, envelope, tape (something along those lines) that detailed the information that had been collected on her and would be released if she ran. So she was offered a choice, run and have that stuff come out, or fade away with her millions. And here's the real cynical part, I'll bet it was the Republican establishment that sent it to her. She was the only real threat to the establishment because she has what Mitt, Newt, Michele, Ron, Rick et all can't match one on one - hell they can't match it as a group - and that's charisma. They could not afford to take the risk that she might win. That's how the big boys really play the game.
