Hi Emily.
From the stories here, a straight answer to your question isn't easily come by. Many stories with many outcomes, some leading to transition.
I dressed regularly from age seven, but kept it very separate from my family and social life. I didn't play with dolls or other 'girly' things.
My cross-dressing began over 30-years ago and it's only within the last 5-years that I've made moves towards transitioning.
I'm still torn mentally over transitioning (I've already had a couple of shots at it), but the dysphoria keeps returning with a vengeance.
Hey, what can you do other than roll with it?
Something playing on my mind, to which your question alludes, is what extent external influences determine the choice to transition... or not.