Hi Molly,
I'm quite cynical, possibly even verging on paranoid, and I always try to understand how the system really works. Yet for all that I think I have different views on the things you mention.
I don't think there's a "transitional industry" encouraging people to transition. Its more the opposite really. There's always talk of gatekeepers, and if there's money to be made it would be in stopping people from transitioning rather than encouraging it. A therapist or psychologist is going to make far more money gate keeping than they ever would by allowing people to progress quickly though to HRT and surgery. Surgeons make a great deal of money, but they don't get involved until after you've got permission from the psychiatrist, and once you have that there's no encouragement needed.
I'd say that what you tend to see on the forums is reasonably balanced. I don't think its acceptable, especially on this site, to tell people they should transition, but you will see people say what they did themselves (often transition) and to go see a gender therapist. I think that's as fair as can be expected, and what else can you do?
I can't recall hearing someone someone say they are transgender, didn't transition, and are happy with it. Is that because its impossible or because they don't post here? I've no idea. I've been avoiding social transition for years and made myself quite ill doing so, but perhaps that's why I'm here posting this? I'm so messed up that I need to talk about it.
I have the impression that transition regret stories tend to be where somethings gone wrong along the way. Its not normally regret because transition was the wrong thing to do. Hopefully with careful planning that can be avoided, because the success stories are truly wonderful and inspiring. I feel like crying when I read some of them.
I find transitioning very scary. Perhaps terrifying would be a better description. I reached the point a while ago where I even that wouldn't have stopped me if it were not for my family situation. I recently made another step towards transitioning, and that's helped enormously, but I've run out of what I can do without social transition. I'll holding off on that until I'm a lot more desperate than I am now, but it will be no great surprise if that happens.
The one regret I keep hearing, or perhaps remembering because I feel it, is the wish to have transitioned earlier. I've been in tears over that one.
And now I feel I've written a post designed to encourage you to transition. Is this to validate my own choices? I hope not, and if it is its certainly not intentional. I don't know what else I can say, except that you'll have to trust in yourself.