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Article: Transgender Agendas, Social Contagion, Peer Pressure, and Prevalence

Started by SadieBlake, December 05, 2017, 08:24:21 AM

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SadieBlake

Julia. Serano is usually a good read, I was glad to hear her summary of recent and probably more accurate estimates of trans prevalence. I'd been working with numbers more like 1:2000, it's good (and I think intuitively sensible) to hear we're at least half an order of magnitude more than that

QuoteAn early challenge to those old dubious statistics was Lynn Conway's work[PDF link] in 2001–2007 examining multiple lines of evidence (other than diagnoses from Gender Identity Clinics), which led to the conclusion that "the lower bound on the prevalence of transsexualism is at least 1:500, and possibly higher."
...
More recently, a 2016 Williams Institute report surveying all fifty U.S. states estimated that 0.6% of the population identifies as transgender, with some states (e.g., Hawaii, California, Georgia, New Mexico, Texas, and Florida) in the 0.7 to 0.8% range.

"Transgender Agendas, Social Contagion, Peer Pressure, and Prevalence" @JuliaSerano https://medium.com/@juliaserano/transgender-agendas-social-contagion-peer-pressure-and-prevalence-c3694d11ed24
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Toni

I agree that we are far more prevalent than previously thought.  A lot of influencing factors I see evident that have lead to very conflicting data and I don't think we're even close to understanding the prevalence of people having experiences similar to ours.  I think we will see constantly escalating numbers as people become less afraid to come out, but at the same time, states like Texas, where I currently live, seem to be making a real effort to go back to the dark ages and the political climate here will drive people away or back into silence.   
     I have come out to most all my friends and neighbors and just this morning was informed that two older children of my neighbors have just in private announced that they were also trans and thought they had been for years.  This revelation came to light as the parents, who have fully accepted me, were explaining the situation to their kids.  Surprize, surprize!  Now I may have the opportunity to return the kindnesses I have been shown by helping parents and kids as best I can to navigate this minefield.  At least they don't have to feel alone.  Toni
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SadieBlake

LG people were much more closeted just 20 years ago (I worked for a very large company back then and always found it sad that there wasn't a single employee vehicle besides my motorcycle had pride insignia, effectively nobody was out though there were a few people who everyone knew about).

Today I think there are few real barriers to being out about orientation and as more people become aware, acceptance is coming.

Also those states which correctly recognize WPATH and mandate insurance coverage for hrt and various surgeries, you're already seeing more people transitioning. Nothing like visibility to start acceptance.
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Devlyn

I don't think any of the transgender estimates are even close. The conventional wisdom is that 1 in 20 men crossdress. That's 2.5% right there.

Hugs, Devlyn
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Dena

Quote from: Devlyn Marie on December 05, 2017, 03:10:58 PM
I don't think any of the transgender estimates are even close. The conventional wisdom is that 1 in 20 men crossdress. That's 2.5% right there.

Hugs, Devlyn
Hate to say this but 1 in 20 would be 5%. Far to much math in college.
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Devlyn

Quote from: Dena on December 05, 2017, 03:25:45 PM
Quote from: Devlyn Marie on December 05, 2017, 03:10:58 PM
I don't think any of the transgender estimates are even close. The conventional wisdom is that 1 in 20 men crossdress. That's 2.5% right there.

Hugs, Devlyn
Hate to say this but 1 in 20 would be 5%. Far to much math in college.

50% of the population are women and can't be male crossdressers, though. Apparently not enough math!  :laugh:

Hugs, Devlyn
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Dena

Quote from: Devlyn Marie on December 05, 2017, 03:28:07 PM
Hate to say this but 1 in 20 would be 5%. Far to much math in college.


50% of the population are women and can't be male crossdressers, though. Apparently not enough math!  :laugh:

Hugs, Devlyn
And the women aren't transgender? Many women may wear mens clothes because the they are transgender and not because it's convenient. Just because it's socially acceptable for women to wear mens clothes doesn't mean they aren't transgender.
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Devlyn

I usually don't include FTM numbers because I'm not  familiar with them like the MTF crossdresser numbers. I believe we do run at 5% or more.

The problem, the confusion, the misrepresentation around this subject is the availability and frequent usage of articles like the one we're discussing here. Basically a transsexual woman tallying up the transsexuals and declaring "Here are the transgender people."

Hugs, Devlyn

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Toni

LOL, lets see, I never cross dressed as a man, but I'm not a man, but my ID says "M", so am I cross dressing as a woman?  ::)  And now that I believe that I'm a woman, when I put my guy clothes on to work on something am I cross dressing and which category do I fall into?  I'm so confused. Am I lying? Yes. >:-)  Toni
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Gertrude

I'd say somewhere between 1 in 66 and 1 in 100.


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Roll

The numbers really depend on the terminology, and it is largely too inconsistent for my liking much of the time in a sociological label sense in so many of these studies (I'm not sure I've ever seen one explicitly detail their criteria). I think the rate of the umbrella term transgender is very high when applied by a second party descriptively, but that many people, notably men crossdressing, do not necessarily identify as transgender and thus the actual identification rate will be lower than the descriptive rate. This would include sexual fetish stuff that isn't key to identity typically. This would be the 5%+ easy number, and significantly higher still if you include the culturally accepted women wearing men's clothing(though for practicality sake, limiting that to more distinctively male dress, such as the suit and tie look, as obviously things like including t-shirts would drive that number up to virtually every woman ever).

As per the more common (perhaps layman's?) view of being transgender (transsexual, more habitual cross dressing such as with drag, and other very lifestyle/identity driving examples), I think the rate is probably more in the 1% range.

I think full on cross gender transsexual is probably half of that, going in line more with the .6% estimates. (And I believe many studies do probably start with the faulty transsexual = transgender premise.)

Also, I think that number is going to vary to extreme degrees based on location because of demographic clustering. In other words, walking around rural Indiana, 1 out of every 100 or 200 people is probably not transgender. But meanwhile, walking around Atlanta, you will get 1 out of every 50 people is probably transgender. (Though even then, the clustering will of course be more specific down to the neighborhood level, but just to keep it simple.)
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Denise

People lie and for good reason.  I believe we will NEVER (not in my lifetime nor my kids) get an accurate count.  I say this because until October 2015 I had not considered myself transgender.  But even if I had realized my desire to be female (I didn't hate being a guy - at least I didn't think so) there is no way on Earth that I would have admitted it to a survey.

When people ask me or when I presenting Trans-101 to a group I typically go with 1:100 (ignoring mtf/ftm as I think they are very similar)
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Gertrude

Quote from: Roll on December 05, 2017, 09:21:20 PM
The numbers really depend on the terminology, and it is largely too inconsistent for my liking much of the time in a sociological label sense in so many of these studies (I'm not sure I've ever seen one explicitly detail their criteria). I think the rate of the umbrella term transgender is very high when applied by a second party descriptively, but that many people, notably men crossdressing, do not necessarily identify as transgender and thus the actual identification rate will be lower than the descriptive rate. This would include sexual fetish stuff that isn't key to identity typically. This would be the 5%+ easy number, and significantly higher still if you include the culturally accepted women wearing men's clothing(though for practicality sake, limiting that to more distinctively male dress, such as the suit and tie look, as obviously things like including t-shirts would drive that number up to virtually every woman ever).

As per the more common (perhaps layman's?) view of being transgender (transsexual, more habitual cross dressing such as with drag, and other very lifestyle/identity driving examples), I think the rate is probably more in the 1% range.

I think full on cross gender transsexual is probably half of that, going in line more with the .6% estimates. (And I believe many studies do probably start with the faulty transsexual = transgender premise.)

Also, I think that number is going to vary to extreme degrees based on location because of demographic clustering. In other words, walking around rural Indiana, 1 out of every 100 or 200 people is probably not transgender. But meanwhile, walking around Atlanta, you will get 1 out of every 50 people is probably transgender. (Though even then, the clustering will of course be more specific down to the neighborhood level, but just to keep it simple.)
The real numbers depends on who identifies. It's one of those things that some won't disclose even on an anonymous survey.


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Denise

Quote from: Gertrude on December 06, 2017, 07:30:05 AM
The real numbers depends on who identifies. It's one of those things that some won't disclose even on an anonymous survey.

I TOTALLY AGREE!!!

There was a ZERO percent chance that I would have answered "yes" to 'are you trans?' until I was almost 54 years old.  Even though I asked my mother at the age of 4 "was a mistake made? Am I supposed to be a girl?"

1st Person out: 16-Oct-2015
Restarted Spironolactone 26-Aug-2016
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FFS (Walton in Chicago): 25-Sep-2018
Vaginoplasty (Schechter): 13-Dec-2018









A haiku in honor of my grandmother who loved them.
The Voices are Gone
Living Life to the Fullest
I am just Denise
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Paige

I've known I've been trans my whole life and I'm 55.  I would never have admitted it on a survey.  I just wouldn't trust that this information would be kept confidential and I live in pretty liberal area of Canada.  I can only imagine what people in much more repressive areas would think of a survey like this.

Paige :)

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Toni

Not only did I not know I was trans until about 8 months ago, and I'll be 67 this month, I don't even recall ever hearing the word until linked to the Jenner thing which I was confused about even then.  This whole thing has been a mental whirlwind for me, just fairly recently that I understood what it meant and viewed it in a positive enough way to want to say, "yeah, I'm trans!".  I recently had to fill out (again, every 5 years) a Department of Agriculture Census asking all kinds of questions about ag operations (I have bees) and who owns them, runs them, and who does what.  Early on it asked for gender of principal owners/operators and how many (just my wife and me).  I was just irritated enough and decided to answer the questions: two owners/two operators, two female.  Every answer that I thought reflected in any way on my gender I answered as female.  Let 'em chew on that for awhile. ;D Toni
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