Fact Check: No, There Is Not A New Survey Showing Trans Identity Is Decreasing

[Sarah B]

Title:  Fact Check: No, There Is Not A New Survey Showing Transd Identity Is Decreasing
Link To:  Article 🔗 [Link: erininthemorning.com/p/fact-​check-​no-​there-​is-​not-​a-​new/]
Author:  Erin Reed
Date:  16 October 2025
"When corrected, the numbers show the opposite of what he claimed: transgender and nonbinary identification in America has risen over the last two years as more people come out than ever before."

"Kaufmann had run his analysis using the raw survey responses rather than applying the weighting provided by FIRE to make the results nationally representative.  Without weighting, the data dramatically misrepresented the population."

"When Eliason re-ran the numbers correctly, the trend line flipped entirely, showing that the share of students identifying as neither male nor female had increased, not decreased."

"Deriving causal claims about temporal effects from cross-sectional data is always challenging, but a good faith answer to the question of how the prevalence of gender non-conforming identification has changed over time is dead on arrival without survey weights," says Eliason.

"Yes no weights.  I don't believe weighting is appropriate for this kind of over time analysis."

"FIRE strongly recommends applying the weights to all analyses, as this is a standard practice in survey research."

"The Gallup Poll found that 1.3 percent of Americans now identify as transgender, up from 0.9 percent in 2023."

Best Wishes Always
Sarah B
Global Moderator

[KathyLauren]

neither male nor female

And of course, even if the calculations had been done correctly, that criterion only includes nonbinary folks.  Many of us do identify as male or female, just not the label that was on our original birth certificate.

[Lori Dee]

Anti-LGBTQ media outlets are cashing in on the clickbait.

New York Post:
New survey shows how gender madness 'non-binary' was just a fad pushed by radical activists
The headlines alone reveal their bias.

FOX News:
Transgender 'trend' sharply declining on American college campuses, new analysis finds
In the video, behind the anchorwoman is a sign that says "Victory Against the Trans Agenda". Fair and balanced? Um, nope!

Unherd: (Yeah, I never heard of them)
Why are fewer young people identifying as trans? (Pay to find out)

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VICE:
Kids Aren't Identifying as Nonbinary Anymore
https://www.vice.com/en/article/kids-arent-identifying-as-nonbinary-anymore 🔗
Ashley Fike - October 15, 2025, 12:38pm

"Maybe the real story isn't decline, but recalibration. After years of expanding definitions, some Gen Zers seem ready to move past identity politics and focus on simply being themselves."

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And maybe some people fear for their personal safety and play a role imposed upon them by society and government. I know I did for 60 years.

[Sephirah]

When you preface the person doing the "finding" as "far right", you can effectively ignore what they found. People will always find what they're looking for, based on what they want to see. That's just... how the world works. I mean the same is true of "far left". People will always look for statistics based on what they want to find, and will always find it. Since the world is leaning more right these days for whatever insane reasons, this will have traction. Because people want it to. It is cognitive bias on a huge scale. And as such, should be taken as meaningless.

[Lori Dee]

People will always look for statistics based on what they want to find, and will always find it.

My dad always said that 81.723% of all statistics are just made up.

He also claims to be the world's only kamikaze pilot with 32 successful missions.

😄

[Sephirah]

Uh huh, and it's a proven fact that 96% of statistics are wrong. 😉