Fact Check: No, There Is Not A New Survey Showing Trans Identity Is Decreasing

[Sarah B]

Title:  Fact Check: No, There Is Not A New Survey Showing Transd Identity Is Decreasing
Link To:  Article 🔗 [Link: erininthemorning.com/p/fact-​check-​no-​there-​is-​not-​a-​new/]
Author:  Erin Reed
Date:  16 October 2025
"When corrected, the numbers show the opposite of what he claimed: transgender and nonbinary identification in America has risen over the last two years as more people come out than ever before."

"Kaufmann had run his analysis using the raw survey responses rather than applying the weighting provided by FIRE to make the results nationally representative.  Without weighting, the data dramatically misrepresented the population."

"When Eliason re-ran the numbers correctly, the trend line flipped entirely, showing that the share of students identifying as neither male nor female had increased, not decreased."

"Deriving causal claims about temporal effects from cross-sectional data is always challenging, but a good faith answer to the question of how the prevalence of gender non-conforming identification has changed over time is dead on arrival without survey weights," says Eliason.

"Yes no weights.  I don't believe weighting is appropriate for this kind of over time analysis."

"FIRE strongly recommends applying the weights to all analyses, as this is a standard practice in survey research."

"The Gallup Poll found that 1.3 percent of Americans now identify as transgender, up from 0.9 percent in 2023."

Best Wishes Always
Sarah B
Global Moderator

[KathyLauren]

neither male nor female

And of course, even if the calculations had been done correctly, that criterion only includes nonbinary folks.  Many of us do identify as male or female, just not the label that was on our original birth certificate.