Are you scared about the economy and how is the economy in your area?

[tekla]

While I don't think that TV is brainwashing, I do think it is a Plug-In Drug¹, one that does have significant and measurable effects on the people who watch it and escalating with time watched.  It is designed to deliver ideas and notions that support the mass consumption/mass production economic and social system on which the modern United States is built.  In other nations it has a far more profound political message, perhaps in others I've not seen a social or educational message - its possible.  But television in the US creates desire for products (material goods and services) and provides an easy way to satiate that desire.

The focus of the majority of programing (not my word, it's what the TV folk call it) is designed to keep you docile and ignorant.  The not so subtle message is that a) there is nothing wrong with the world, the problem is you, and it can be solved by product X, or service Y, and b) if there is something wrong with the world - and we're not saying there is - it's beyond your ability to fix it or contribute to the solution so you should just sit back and let the experts handle it, after all, they have your best interests at heart.

There does seem to be a high value placed on finishing life at home in your spare time.  One aspect of heavy TV watching is a marked increase in paranoia where TV watchers radically overestimate the amount of violence in the world, and their chances of encountering it.  To people who watch TV, the world is a much scarier place then it is to those who are not watching TV and living in the world.  Docile and ignorant.

Also, as one spends more and more time with TV, it becomes more and more (this only makes sense) the way, manner and method of your reference to life itself.  You begin to see tv solutions as the only solutions, tv relationships as a model for real relationships, and the extremely limited tv event horizon (no past, no future) as the only event horizon.  You begin to see life as a reflection of tv (comparing real life events to tv episodes, identifying with characters from tv rather than people you know, speaking a special tv talk that only the viewers of that show use) rather than the other way around.

I also think that its effect is strongest on those who need it least.  What used to be passed of as being 'shy' is now social anxiety disorder or several other things, all of which tend to make people more introspective then they should be, and less inclined to socialize and interact with other people.  TV for these people increases both of those tendencies, and can, and I think does, have a very unhealthy effect of increasing isolation.  Its much easier to have friends on TV, because, as we all know, friends in real life can be a real pain in the ass sometimes.  How much easier to withdraw into some fantasy world and avoid the entire messy business.   

Take your own survey though.  I'm sure you will find, as I have, that the higher the level of education, or success/achievement the lower the frequency of watching.  Busy people simply don't have the time to devote to watching it, as watching it seems to take up most of your free time.³  I'm also sure that you will be able to note that some of the most poorly socially adjusted people you meet watch a buttload of TV.


As for that other pesky issue, poor John McCain is going to be crying 'the economy ate my Presidential Inauguration' the almost psychedelic numbers out of the financial industry on just about everything....

The entire apparatus of allocation and distribution is out of whack.  The problem is not isolated, but systematic.  It affects not just a few products, but pretty much production/consumption across the board.  That stereo that Rachel wants is pretty much a global product.  With components coming from all over the world, being assembled in one place, shipped to another for sale with management and administration in a third place.  We don't yet know if the increased globalization of production and consumption will shift the fallout to a larger field and cushion the fall, or if wave upon wave of minor failures in remote sectors will have a ripple effect making any sort of recovery harder.

But, there is no doubt that things are out of whack, and our ability to control events is not exactly winning against events at the current time.  To think that any man-made system is so perfect as to be 'unsinkable' is not realistic, as all systems, structures and institutions can and do go awry.  Two of histories great lessons are:

Things can always crash and burn, the 'unsinkable' Titanic not only sank, it did so on its very first voyage.  Markets have failed before.  Depressions have happened.  Hyper-inflation can happen.  Runs on the banks can happen.

Things can always get worse.  As Bpb Dylan says: Just when you think you've lost everything, you find out you can always lose a little more.  So, where it might not be as bad as '29, the fifty-fifty odds say it could be worse.


A lot of the impact of what is happening, and what's about to happen, will (as all things do,) fall more heavily on specific groups.  Professional administrators are not going to do well - there simply is going to be less to administrate.  The number of jobs in the financial sector is waning daily, and there is no end in sight.  Jobs closely tied to government support are going to decrease in both number and pay as the debt of the US rises as tax revenues fall.  Current Federal payments of the service on the debt (interest only) account for 25% of the revenue off the top, and that is going to be closer to 35% after we let the big banks write some huge ass blank checks for themselves and the true cost of the Iran war comes home.  So people counting on some government job (and they are good jobs) are going to be in the same boat as the financial industry types, the construction/real estate folks, auto guys, and the retail industry.

Its already become a lot harder to find work then it was 3 years ago, and compared to the 90s its almost insane.  Competition for fewer jobs will lead to gradual reduction of wages and lower the economic cycle further.  But a lot of people are going to be unemployed in the short run I think.

Some people will do very well.  Traditional recession/depression jobs, repo man, car repair and auto parts (the fewer new cars you sell, the greater the rise in repairs and parts), cleaning/janitor, traditional crafts: carp, plumb, cook, and the rest will all do, if not well, at least OK.  Entertainment and drugs (liquor, beer, pot, pills) will go up too.  Though ending the Prohibition against marijuana is a possible solution to some problems, like revenue, much the same as the Great Depression pretty much ended Prohibition the first time around.

The new crafts: insulation, solar installs, networks might also do OK.

Worse off, people who bought houses in the last 8 years, but most likely the last 18.  In Los Angels, according to today's paper, home prices fell 26.7% in the year ending in August, according to a widely watched index of prices.  Home prices fall 17% nationwide.  That's a considerable drop.  Few people can afford to be paying on a house that is now worth only 75% of what they payed for it.


What I do see happening is more along the lines of the people who study such things, like Kunstler  Long a critic of what was going on, all that financial antics and shenanigans, he has been writing about it for decades now, and this is what he sees:
If the financial system completes its self-destruction -- and that's looking more and more like a real possibility -- there will be several pretty awful consequences. One is that the United States will be forced to declare bankruptcy by repudiating its own debt. All those who took refuge in US Treasury bonds and bills will be like folks who sought shelter from a tornado in their out-house. That would go hand-in-hand with a massive currency inflation that is likely to follow the current phase of compressive liquidating deflation -- in which every possible asset is being sold off for less than its face value. That process is self-limiting due to the finite supply of real salable assets. The trillions of dollars injected into system while this is happening must eventually snap-back as people shed the last fungible article and compete for necessary commodities like food and fuel with dollars that are suddenly plentiful but worthless.


So, the trillions of dollars that have somehow disappeared in the last few years (where did they go?  No one seems to know.) and the trillions more that are lining up to follow that other money into oblivion, are going to make us poorer, not richer.  What will prosper are real people who have real skills and make real products.

The Other Problem: (Kunstler again)
As we discover ourselves to be a much poorer nation, one of my correspondents put it: "the bogus risk-swapping economy must be replaced by a net value-added economy." That means actually making things, growing things, and rebuilding things, and that can only begin to happen if we do not stupidly sucker ourselves into a war with other nations who are liable to be extremely ticked off at us for destroying the global economy, but also competing with us for a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world.

It's that entire a dwindling supply of resources that are not equitably distributed around the world that both bothers and scares me.


These problems of a) major financial institutions failing - and we're talking belly up stuff, not 'readjustment' b) a major shutdown of two of American's leading industries, autos and homes - and they are important not just for financial reasons, but both have high labor and high consumption levels associated with them c) The closing of major retailers, Comp USA, Mervin's, and high inventory levels (the overstocked clearance racks) indicate a much lower level of consumer consumption, the most basic driver of the economy.

Together these three events happening at the same time bode ill, for all three can reinforce each other creating a vortex effect.  Or, put another way, what is going on is synergistic to itself, and each individual problem in one sector becomes other problems in other sectors.  While I don't quite see the end of the world looming up on us, its just prudent thinking to assume that things might get worse for some time out.  These events are not without their ramifications.


Stand there on the deck of the Titanic and keep on telling yourself its only drama llamas who see bad times ahead for a lot of people and are scurrying to the lifeboats.  Keep on thinking that it's unsinkable and we will not have to undergo some major readjustment, perhaps even at the most fundamental and structural levels of Western Civ.  I'll have the band strike up a stirring version of "Nearer My God To Thee" on my way past them.  But you know, if you wait past the time where your shoes are getting wet, its going to be too late.




1. Millions of Americans are so hooked on television that they fit the criteria for substance abuse as defined in the official psychiatric manual, according to Rutgers University psychologist and TV-Free America board member Robert Kubey. Heavy TV viewers exhibit five dependency symptoms--two more than necessary to arrive at a clinical diagnosis of substance abuse. These include: 1) using TV as a sedative; 2) indiscriminate viewing; 3) feeling loss of control while viewing; 4) feeling angry with oneself for watching too much; 5) inability to stop watching; and 6) feeling miserable when kept from watching. Norman Herr

2. Frank Zappa, from the Barking Pumpkin Record's warning label.

3. In 2000 and 2001, an American household spent on average seven hours and 39 minutes watching TV, which grew to eight hours and 14 minutes in and after 2005. TV viewing time for an individual American aged two and above grew from four hours and a quarter during 2000 and 2001, to four hours and 34 minutes during 2006 and 2007.

[cindianna_jones]

Amanda,

In 1929, we had a massive run on the banks.  My grandfather had gone to his bank a month before the run with the money to pay off his large farm. He had 640 acres.  The bank convinced him to keep his mortgage and use the money he had as capital to run the farm. When the bank folded, they forclosed on his loan, even though he had the money to pay it off in the SAME bank.

There won't be a run on the banks like that.  We've got safety nets to prevent it.

The lack of infrastructure also helped form the depression.  There wasn't a total lack of money. But no one would sell anything.

No one had a vested interest in the US keeping its economy healthy.  Now the whole world participates in keeping us healthy.

There have always been immigrants here.  There have always been people who don't speak English... take the native AMERICANS for example.  The fact is... immigrants are here legally since we don't deport them.  If we want illegals to leave, then pay a living wage for the work they do. American citizens will flock to those jobs and they will leave in droves.

The health care system as imperfect as it is, keeps the machinery of consumption moving.  Each person is a "human resource".  It's in the best interests of corporate american to keep it's worker bees working.

However... you did hit the nail on the head with the massive debt we are accumulating. Everyone ignores the national debt which is the sum of each year's budget deficit.  It will approach 12 trillion dollars next year.  Tax revenues will be in the neighborhood of 1.4 trillion dollars.  We'll spend 550 billion dollars more than the revenues.  I see a bankruptcy in the future if we don't get this thing under control.  With that said however, in adjusted dollars, the economy (in terms of national debt) was worse off right after the second worl war.  We had massive debt incured from the war and we somehow managed to get through it.... Hmmmm... FDR's New Deal worked.  He spent massive amounts of money to build and improve infrastructure.

So... this all relates to what could happen within the next couple of years.  It looks like Obama is going to win the presidency. He's going to have a very difficult time uniting the country after it has so "eloquently divided" by the campaign smears from you know who.  There will be many who feel so strongly about the lies and distortions that they'll have a hard time supporting the new president.  And guess where all those "red" states are....

Right down the wind corridor, the richest natural resource that we might have, the best wind resource in the world.  A New New Deal, massive in scope, could be put into play building and installing wind turbines.  We'll need to beef up the delivery system of all that electricity too.  We can deliver up to 20 percent of our nations electricity needs within just a few years.  We'll put lots of people to work in those red states.  By the time we're into it a few years, those people will support the president 100 percent.

As a united country, we can do anything.  I still believe that we are the most ambitious, pig headed, and smartest country in the world.  We'll get through this.  We can be better than before. We have to want "that" though instead of the divisiveness and hatred we have now.

Cindi

[lisagurl]

btw, im a smoker, and dont really give a turnip

That explains everything.

[Rachael]

yes, it explains why i have grey eyes, wavey hair, why im 5'10.... you're amazing lisa.... sorry, but go away... your drama is just silly and unhelpful.

[tekla]

Though it seems impossible to unite the nation, crisis and leadership have been known to do it.  For sure on the first, still to see on the second.  The damage done though by a couple of generations of division politics and people like Bill, Rush et.all. is not going to be easy to undo either.

[Just Mandy]

I'm not the only one who believes we are on the precipice of a major problem... major in that
"you ain't seen nothin yet" type of problem. But my feeling is that many, many people do not get how epic these
times are and how massive the problems are. It's just business as usual. I promise, I'm a rational, same, positive person but
the events of the past two months are a once in a life time thing and I'm totally freaked out by what I see and the calm
demeanor of the general public. These are extreme predictions for sure and I recognize that but even if we only get 30%
there it's going to be painful.

One major problem that I did not mention is the coming debacle in mortgage resets coming next year. I guess I'm
trying to ignore it. But just like the bulk of the sub-prime mortgages reset last year, a whole new wave of Alt A resets
are coming in 2009. Most of these that will be resetting were used to buy the million dollar plus homes. Since most
of these homes have declined significantly there is no way out for borrowers that cannot afford to keep paying the
higher mortgages. It stands to be an even bigger mess than sub-prime.

Some people will do very well.  Traditional recession/depression jobs, repo man, car repair and auto parts (the fewer new cars you sell, the greater the rise in repairs and parts), cleaning/janitor, traditional crafts: carp, plumb, cook, and the rest will all do, if not well, at least OK.  Entertainment and drugs (liquor, beer, pot, pills) will go up too.  Though ending the Prohibition against marijuana is a possible solution to some problems, like revenue, much the same as the Great Depression pretty much ended Prohibition the first time around.

I think for a while Tekla they might thrive but eventually if things are bad enough even the "recession proof" jobs will disappear.

In 1929, we had a massive run on the banks.  My grandfather had gone to his bank a month before the run with the money to pay off his large farm. He had 640 acres.  The bank convinced him to keep his mortgage and use the money he had as capital to run the farm. When the bank folded, they foreclosed on his loan, even though he had the money to pay it off in the SAME bank.

There won't be a run on the banks like that.  We've got safety nets to prevent it.

I'm sorry but I have to strongly disagree. Cindi... bank runs are already happening. A bank run did in Wacovia
and BOA. No one is calling them bank runs to prevent a total panic and collapse so the Fed is buying into banks
to re-capitalize them.  The government buying into banks... that is epic beyond words.  And it cannot go on
forever and there is no clear way out of it. Just because you do not see lines outside a bank does not mean it's not
happening. Just take a look at the capital requirement report from the Fed. There is no capital left... banks are
broke, they are insolvent, they have just not told the public yet.

There have always been immigrants here.  There have always been people who don't speak English... take the native AMERICANS for example.  The fact is... immigrants are here legally since we don't deport them.  If we want illegals to leave, then pay a living wage for the work they do. American citizens will flock to those jobs and they will leave in droves.

The last large immigrant influx was in the late 1800 and they came from European countries. But they assimilated, they
learned our culture, they learned English,  they became Americans. Today you have Spanish speaking culture where the US
is just another state of Mexico. It has gotten so bad and so many do not speak or read English that schools are forced
to hire Spanish speaking teachers, business's are forced to advertise and assist in Spanish. I was shocked to see
a complete flyer printed in Spanish for a Home Depot on a recent vacation... in an American city, and no english version was
to be found. And they wave the Mexican flag around like this is their country. I grew up with Mexican Americans, some of
my best friends were and are Mexican Americans and I can assure you they are as appalled by this as anyone.

I long for the days right after 911. We were one nation, indivisible and I was proud to be an American again. But
that feeling faded quickly and it's been downhill from there. I'm embarrassed by our leaders, Republican and Democratic
alike and I think they ALL should be voted out, every last one of them. I'm also embarrassed by the media, the reporters
that are so important in a Democracy have all dropped the ball.

The health care system as imperfect as it is, keeps the machinery of consumption moving.  Each person is a "human resource".  It's in the best interests of corporate American to keep it's worker bees working.

The system is totally corrupt and broken. Healthcare is a very unique need. It's not like other services and when doctors are
more interested in profit than providing care you can call it broken. It was not broken 30 years ago. When I was young
families did not need huge medical policies. You would pay you family doctor what you could and pay out the rest. Everyone
got affordable healthcare. Yes the doctors worked long hours, yes they were underpaid. But now doctors are among the
richest of our society, most work three days a week and people go without healthcare,  paying huge premiums for
bad service. The US stands alone in this debacle, every other country has some type of plan where every person is
covered. It's a basic right.

FDR's New Deal worked.  He spent massive amounts of money to build and improve infrastructure.

The country had very little debt at that time. The US cannot spend it's way out of this mess with all the
other existing obligations.

As a united country, we can do anything.  I still believe that we are the most ambitious, pig headed, and smartest country in the world.  We'll get through this.  We can be better than before. We have to want "that" though instead of the divisiveness and hatred we have now.

Your positive comments are inspiring Cindi but I see it a little different, at least right now. I see lots of finger
pointing as Tekla says, lots of hatred.  I hope we can all look back at this thread in two or three years and get a good
laugh. But right now I just don't see it being laughable.

Amanda

[lisagurl]

Most of these that will be resetting were used to buy the million dollar plus homes. Since most
of these homes have declined significantly there is no way out for borrowers that cannot afford to keep paying the
higher mortgages. It stands to be an even bigger mess than sub-prime.

The facts are that most people that can afford to buy a million plus homes can do it in cash and do not need below prime loans . They can get low interest money on a signature alone. Those that do take advantage of the low interest rates invest that mortgage money in higher yielding more risky investments. The interest is also deductible and those people (million plus) are less than 5% of the loans out their and are not Freddy or Fanny loans. Many problems came from the get rich quick schemes that people would buy homes at foreclosed prices and flip them to make big profits. Now they are holding the bag as like the pyramid scams the last on board get took. Still all this is not the major problem. The problem is the investment insurance derivatives that encouraged banks to make loans to noncredit worthy people because they bought the insurance and then sold the mortgages. Well the people who sold the insurance only had pennies on the dollar to pay out. As they defaulted, investment houses are left with bad paper with no value and the knowledge that any claims to recoup their investment are far in the future.

What will solve the problem is for a world wide minimum wage which makes labor all over the world worth the same. Then jobs would move back into this country goods would be more expensive and it would level the playing field between the lowest and highest paid people.

[Just Mandy]

The facts are that most people that can afford to buy a million plus homes can do it in cash and do not need below prime loans .

Below prime loans if you are talking about sub prime loans are made to borrowers that have poor payment histories. The
Alt-A (and Option ARMS) resets that I was talking about are not sub-prime, they were made to worthy borrowers on large houses, some for flipping purposes but many for their primary home. In the past few years because of the run-up in real estate  prices many people that had good credit and incomes but did not have a million dollars were forced to use these loans to afford properties. I'm not saying it was a good decision but it has nothing to do with sub prime other than they are
going bad because of the mortgage meltdown.

The interest is also deductible and those people (million plus) are less than 5% of the loans out their and are not Freddy or Fanny loans.

About 3 million US borrowers have Alt-A mortgages totaling $1 trillion, compared with $855 billion of subprime loans outstanding, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication in Maryland.

You can see what I mean, do a search on "ARM reset graph" and you will come up with this:
http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg

You can see how the resets continue into 2011.

The problem is the investment insurance derivatives that encouraged banks to make loans to noncredit worthy people because they bought the insurance and then sold the mortgages. Well the people who sold the insurance only had pennies on the dollar to pay out. As they defaulted, investment houses are left with bad paper with no value and the knowledge that any claims to recoup their investment are far in the future.

I did not want to get into the nuts and bolts of the credit default swaps because peoples eyes really glaze over but CDS's are what destroyed Leman Brothers and threatens to bring down the whole system. The size of the derivatives problem is massive and the coming defaults on the Alt-A mortgage will set off a wave of defaults up the chain of the CDO's and land at the feet
of the institutions and banks that issued the CDS's who in turn bought CDS's to cover themselves. The real problem is NO one knows
who has exposure to CDS's and who does not. Often times the banks do not even know because they cannot vouch for the
CDS's that cover their loans. That is why banks refuse to loan to each other. It is one big fubared system ready to implode.

What will solve the problem is for a world wide minimum wage which makes labor all over the world worth the same. Then jobs would move back into this country goods would be more expensive and it would level the playing field between the lowest and highest paid people

It is simply impossible to pay the same wage in the US and a country such as Taiwan, China, or even Mexico where the
minimum wage is around .50 cents and even less in Asia.

Amanda

[sd]

But now doctors are among the
richest of our society

Actually that is not true.
Yes, some docs are VERY well paid, mostly surgeons, specialists, and those who have been doing this for a long time or sold their soul.

The average doc has far too many bills and is underpaid by the same HMO that is ripping you off. Malpractice insurance, deals by the HMO's and the cost of schooling brings their income down significantly. Once they pay off school they do pretty good.


Many have gotten fed up with the whole system and have returned to the older style of family doc who takes cash and only what you can pay. Any major issues they let the hospitals and local charity deal with the bills. They still do not make a lot, but at least they can treat customers fairly.

[myles]

Thanks for the link,  do you have a good one on credit swap defaults? I don't think there could ever be a world minimum wage. As you stated Asian countries earn as little as $50 a month for full time plus work. If we tried to impose a minimum wage there comperable to the rest of the world it would throw things all out of wack there. (financialy and politicaly)
Myles
yes I have a spelling issue in that I am horrible at it!

[Just Mandy]

Thanks for the link,  do you have a good one on credit swap defaults?

You mean like what they are? This is a pretty good explanation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credit_default_swap

I think they are so esoteric that no one understands them enough to post much about them. You know they
are new... I think they were offered starting around 2000 but don't quote me on that. They are totally unregulated
and a black hole as far as transparency. And there seem to be layer upon layer with cross guarantees and links
back and forth. Once you delve into them you realize how big a mess they have become.

The average doc has far too many bills and is underpaid by the same HMO that is ripping you off. Malpractice insurance, deals by the HMO's and the cost of schooling brings their income down significantly. Once they pay off school they do pretty good.

I'm not sure what would entail average doctor. But all the ones I know, even the non-specialists do "pretty good".
(And by bills do you mean a "doctors" lifestyle?) And "pretty good" ranks them among the best in the country, some
complain that ONLY 200K is not rich, but compared to other careers it's pretty good as you say and better than most.
But in my opinion that income comes at a cost and that is to provide the best care possible, but instead they seem
to want to take the most time off and milk the system for maximum profit. Don't get me wrong, there is blame everywhere
in the healthcare system but doctors have just as much as anyone.

Oh... just dropped off a deposit at my bank drive up and there was a new notice on the tube
that reminded me I had not mentioned it. The FDIC limit was raised to 250K from 100K. That alone
tells me there were silent bank runs going on.

And don't be fooled by the "Second best day ever" on the DOW today. It will be sell off as quickly as it went up today and
possibly severely even as soon as later this week.

Amanda

[sd]

I'm not sure what would entail average doctor. But all the ones I know, even the non-specialists do "pretty good".
(And by bills do you mean a "doctors" lifestyle?) And "pretty good" ranks them among the best in the country, some
complain that ONLY 200K is not rich, but compared to other careers it's pretty good as you say and better than most.
But in my opinion that income comes at a cost and that is to provide the best care possible, but instead they seem
to want to take the most time off and milk the system for maximum profit. Don't get me wrong, there is blame everywhere
in the healthcare system but doctors have just as much as anyone.

Oh... just dropped off a deposit at my bank drive up and there was a new notice on the tube
that reminded me I had not mentioned it. The FDIC limit was raised to 250K from 100K. That alone
tells me there were silent bank runs going on.

Most people only see the flashier docs.
I am not saying they are poor, If the loans are paid off, they do pretty good, but until then they don't live like kings. People seem to think being a doctor means you can write your own checks and it is far from that in most cases.

Many are to blame though, take a look at who does the decision making at the HMO and such... Doctors, the well paid ones.



And there was some runs on Wamu. An acquaintance/brothers friend was unable to get his money out.

[cindianna_jones]

You know kids.... I think that we pretty much agree that we are standing knee deep in the you know what.  You know something else?  We have some really smart people here. I wish that "Joe six pack" or "Joe the plumber" had one tenth the understanding that individuals here had of current events.

Let's see what sort of mandate we have for change next Tuesday.  I have high hopes.

Cindi

[tekla]

Though its not the most important election ever, its the most important since 1968 (and how fine did that one turn out?).

Everyone should vote.  Too many things are about to change one way or the other, and this is your choice (to a degree).