Quote from: Sandy on January 08, 2010, 06:51:25 AM
Laura:
If there was humor in it, it was very dark humor. I was then, and am now, in a very cynical mood about the possibility of any further progress made for the LGBT community in general and trans people in specific.
I feel that the tide of progress for the LGBT community has turned, starting with Prop H8 and continuing with every defeat of civil marriage since.
I really don't feel that ENDA will be passed, neither will DOMA or DODT be repealed. After all the political capital that has been spent on health care reform, the democratic party will not really want to really go into any more heated political controversy. Least of all for minorities like us.
When the next republican president is elected in 2012, they will specifically address those issues that the extreme conservative fundamentalist religious "chrisitian" right find most appealing. I picked Palin simply because she is so much in the public eye, though, in my opinion not even qualified to be the president of the PTA let alone hold the keys to nuclear launch codes.
With the head of the RNC, Micheal Steele, saying that the republican party must become even more conservative and more right wing in order to return to power, I don't see much hope for any continued progress and feel that we will be easy targets for discrimination.
I really should keep my political opinions to myself and I apologize if I have offended anyone and you specifically Laura. Also I use the term "christian" in the way that is probably the least in line with true Christian ideals of love and acceptance.
-Sandy
Well please know that what I'm about to say is NOT any sort of values argument or any other sort of "confrontational" reply to your thoughts...just my general political take.
On the point of whether or not further progress will be made: I think you are right that it will be a while on the national level. they MIGHT squeeke EMDA through but nothing else. they will be in election year mode next year.
I DO think that the Reppublicans have a fair shot at taking back the house and a great shot at picking up enough Senate seats to get back to a near balance of power in the upper chamber.
I do think, barring a remarkable recovery, that obama is in danger of being a one-term president.
I don't think I take any great satisfaction in that because I don't think the Republicans have learned anything from their loss of power.
All that said:
IMHO, the massively full plate that whoever is in power has, in terms of dealing with an economic situation that is not only not over but is not even as bad yet as it will be, along with what looks to be a generational international conflict (not Afghanistan particularly but the conflict between the west and Radical Islam) will be SO VERY demanding that I would be very surprised if the people in power wish to spend ANY time on "social issues"
I don't think there will be significant legislation out of Congress on ANY issue typically associated with the Religious Right - furthermore, as a matter of political stratagy, I don't thing the RR particularly WANTS them to.
the Right wing Christian political activists are as much or more worried about what they perceive to be the "war on terror" and "creeping socialism" (as personified by the Health Care Bill) than they are about abortion or gay rights or whatever right now (on the national level).
There won't be ANY political capital lost with the Religious Right if the next Republican with political power ignores the social issues altogether until the economy is sound again.
Please note, that doesn't mean there won't be "Prop 8" type battles on the state level all over. I simply mean in Washington.
But then, the state and local battles go on no matter who's in power in Washington.
Post Merge: January 10, 2010, 01:39:19 AM
Quote from: tekla on January 08, 2010, 10:06:24 AM
Currently the only thing doing worse in the polling then the dems are the pubs. Extreme right wing candidates who have been teabagged will not win elections outside of places that are already sending total nut jobs to Congress.
In the last 2 years, the value of homes in Modesto have fallen on the average of 67%, do you think those people care about social issues? Do people without a job care about who is marrying who? So long as the economic situation continues to go down (and it will) social issues - which are really champagne problems - will not gain traction against economic issues.
Which the RR knows - which is why, outside of the early Republican primaries, they will have next to nothing to say about those issues in the next two or three election cycles.
And likewise, if they don't bang the drum about abortion or whatever - if they talk about economics and spending and so forth, those homeowners you mention will not be saying to themselves "Yeah, you SAY that but really you are just waiting to ban abortion if you get elected!"
No, they will be responding to the attention being paid to their issues - which is their wallet.