I have been saying this since 2017–2018, when the pattern first became unmistakable.
What began then was not a policy disagreement or a cultural debate. It was the start of a coordinated, escalating campaign to erase a specific group of people — transgender people — from public life, law, healthcare, education, and ultimately from safety itself. I recognized it early because I have lived long enough, and paid close enough attention, to know what genocidal processes actually look like *before* they turn openly violent.
QuoteI was posting image this on twitter starting around 2018.
Now genocide scholars are finally saying it out loud.
Let's be clear about the scale. Transgender people make up roughly 1% of the U.S. population — about 3.35 million people. That is not an abstraction. That is millions of real human beings being targeted through legislation, propaganda, surveillance, criminalization, and social permission to harm. History shows that genocides often begin with smaller, marginalized populations precisely because they are easier to isolate, dehumanize, and dismiss.
But transgender people were never meant to be the end point.
When you include the broader LGBTQ population, the numbers grow dramatically. LGBTQ people make up roughly 7–8% of the U.S. population — approximately 24–27 million people. Importantly, these are not separate groups. Trans people are LGBTQ. LGBTQ people are Black, Hispanic, immigrant, disabled, poor, religious minorities, and political dissidents. Overlap is not a flaw in the analysis — overlap is the design.
That distinction matters for understanding what is happening now.
National Security Presidential Memorandum-7 (NSPM-7), titled "Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence," was issued by President Trump on September 25, 2025. The memorandum explicitly identifies "extremism on migration, race, and gender" alongside "anti-Americanism, anti-capitalism, and anti-Christianity" as ideological threats constituting domestic terrorism.
Under NSPM-7, the Trump administration introduced the concept of "gender extremism" into the national security framework. This was a pivotal escalation. Once identity, belief, or advocacy can be framed as "extremism," the state gains justification for surveillance, designation, financial exclusion, detention, and removal — all without ordinary due process.
At the same time, the Department of Homeland Security, on its official social media account, stated that as many as
100 million people 🔗 [Link: commondreams.org/news/dhs-100-million-deportations/] could be deported under Trump's agenda. That number did not come from critics or activists. It came directly from DHS.
Under the image it
DHS.Gov made a comment on the image on their Instagram page attached to the image
Quote from: dhsgov on Instagramdhsgov 6d:
The peace of a nation no longer besieged by the third world.
There are not 100 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. The number itself tells us something critical.
This is not a demographic calculation. It is a scope signal.
You do not reach 100 million by carefully adding up trans people, LGBTQ people, immigrants, or any other single group. You reach 100 million by redefining who belongs — by making citizenship, safety, and legal protection conditional.
Once that shift happens, overlap no longer matters.
- Trans people are Black.
- LGBTQ people are Hispanic.
- Immigrants are citizens' parents and children.
- Political dissidents are veterans, students, journalists, clergy.
The question is no longer "which group comes next."
The question becomes who is allowed to remain.
In a white supremacist, authoritarian framework, the imagined "real America" is narrow: white, cisgender, heterosexual, Christian, ideologically compliant. Everyone else exists on a sliding scale of conditional acceptance. When power feels secure, that condition is implicit. When power feels threatened, it becomes explicit.
That is why the 100 million figure makes sense as a *quick internal estimate*. It reflects a model where large portions of the population fail at least one test of belonging — race, gender, sexuality, religion, ancestry, disability, poverty, or political dissent.
This is also why trans people were targeted first.
Not because we are numerous, but because we are small, visible, stigmatized, and easy to isolate. We are the test case. Once the public accepts exceptional measures against one group, the same mechanisms can be scaled — without needing new laws, only new interpretations.
What we have watched since 2017 follows a consistent pattern: a moral panic centered on children, false accusations of threat, legal exclusion, encouragement of civilian enforcement, erosion of due process, national-security framing of identity — and now rhetoric conditioning the public to accept population-level punishment.
- This is not about bathrooms.
- It is not about sports.
- It is not about border security.
It is about deciding which people are allowed to exist safely in society — and which are not.
Why the period before the 2026 elections mattersAuthoritarian movements do not wait calmly for elections they believe they may lose.
If those in power believe their hold is slipping, anti-democratic moves tend to accelerate, not slow down. Historically, this includes efforts to:
- weaken or bypass elections,
- redefine who is eligible to vote or be counted,
- consolidate executive power,
- criminalize opposition, protest, or "extremism,"
- and alter the structure of the state itself before power can change hands.
Seen in that light, the convergence of:
- anti-trans legislation,
- "gender extremism" framing,
- mass-deportation rhetoric at a 100-million scale,
- and open hostility toward democratic norms
is not accidental timing. It is preparatory.
I recognized the genocidal trajectory years ago because I had to. My survival, and the survival of my community, depended on seeing it clearly. Others are only now beginning to connect the dots.
But the math — and the history — do not change:
3.35 million transgender people are already being targeted.
24–27 million LGBTQ people are embedded within a much larger, overlapping population.
And rhetoric invoking removals of 100 million people signals a project aimed at reshaping who counts as "America" itself.
People need to be aware of that — and prepared — because once these moves are attempted, they do not arrive with warning labels. They arrive framed as necessity, security, and order.
Ignoring the pattern will not protect anyone.
