I live in the middle of this race. Cornyn's fate appeared sealed when he championed what locals call the Cornyn Gun Control Law in 2022. Details here:
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/27/john-cornyn-texas-gun-bill/ 🔗 Texans have been grooming this primary challenge since that vote. The voices I heard did not care about anything but punishment for that act of Republican defiance. The margin surprised me. I was expecting a closer race. There are Talarico signs up already. Internal polling suggested they had a finger on the victory a couple weeks back as the attack ads targeting Talarico went through the roof on youtube, hulu, and even amazon video. Months back it was impossible to escape Cornyn ads. I expect this to be an insanely expensive race as Paxton carries a certain infuriation factor. Paxton ads have been touting his detransition deal lots.