Peer Review Draft Nov 9, 2010
Ugg! Not another Causal Analysis!
Without the necessary tools, developing a causal analysis of a fashion trend could become a subjective venture, filled with rampant speculation. Finding the precise cause of trends like the Ugg boot phenomenon would require compiling vast amounts of data and using scientific sociological methods such as sampling that are beyond the scope of this paper. However, by using paradigms devised by Malcolm Gladwell, JS Mills and Jeanne Fahnestock/Marie Secor, a credible causal argument can be achieved in a short essay. But why bother even analyzing something as, on the face of it, seems as inconsequential as what boots women choose to wear on their feet?
In his book The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell proposes that trends, whether identifying a syphilis epidemic in Miami or hipsters buying up Hush Puppies, (19) have several common factors, therefore looking at a seemingly inconsequential event such as shoe wear exposes us to learning a wealth of knowledge about how society deals with more weighty issues. For instance, it is conceivable that how UGG boots became popular could hold the key to learning how political leaders could motivate people to conserve resources and move toward renewable energy.
Ugg boots have been called a "short-lived fad," public health experts say wearing them in certain situations could be harmful and, in certain circumstances, even life threatening. They have been called clunky and Bohemian, yet Oprah Winfrey, when sent samples from the manufacturer, purchased 350 pairs for all of her staff. (Silverstein) Pamela Anderson wore Uggs with her bikini on Baywatch. Demand for the product allegedly became so intense that production was shifted to China and countless knockoffs began appearing. Wal-Mart offers a cheap synthetic imitation for $15 (Walmart.com) compared to about $150 for authentic Uggs while a Costsco knockoff, virtually identical to the original except the label, sells for under $40. At the height of the trend, Uggs were being sold at eBay for two to three times their original retail price. Love them or loathe them, mainly because they are so comfortable, what may have been a fad has evolved into a brand that will likely be with us for years.
I first heard of UGGs when I was discussing my winter shoe wardrobe with an acquaintance. She had commented how nice my black suede "stiletto heeled" boots looked on me. "Yeah, thanks for the compliment," I replied, "but sometimes wearing these attracts unwanted attention and after walking all day in them, my feet hurt!" "So why don't you get a pair of UGGS?" "A pair of whats?" I answered. "UGG boots, they are made of sheepskin and wool and they are oh so comfortable." So I headed to Nordstrom and got my first pair, I still got unwanted attention---some jerk in Nob Hill wondered why I was wearing Uggs on a warm, December day--but I no longer had to keep a spare pair of shoes in the trunk. The conversation had taken place in 2004 just a year after the fashion trend had reached its tipping point.
In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell established a model for analyzing various types of trends, from footwear trends, such as the resurgence of Hush Puppies, to actual epidemics like the youth suicide outbreak in Micronesia The above anecdote (my reaction to the word "uggs") illustrates one of Malcolm Gladwell's models that was vital to the success of the Ugg boot: the Stickiness Factor, which Gladwell says contains elements that are memorable (92) yet "profoundly counter-intuitive." (131) The word UGG derives from the words "ugly" (Vejlgaard, 114) and "ugh". (Hodder) Women, and men for that matter, generally like to wear attractive outerwear not ugly furnishings, so Uggs, in that sense, are definitely counterintuitive but the word is also phonetically memorable in some indescribable way, the word just sticks. And Uggs could be considered ugly in the same way as, say, pugs or Shar-Peis are ugly but also cute at the same time.
Gladwell points to many other factors that influence trends, he states that styles are spread more rapidly, in fact become epidemic, because of The Law of the Few, which dictates that a relatively few people, he calls them "connectors, salesmen and mavens." As one of the most influential celebrities of our time, Oprah Winfrey's nearly defines the term "maven." A maven is someone who people rely on to get the latest information on (usually) a variety of subjects. From her book selections to her presidential candidate preferences, when Oprah speaks, people listen. Oprah plugged UGGs at least a couple times. After Oprah bought the 350 pairs of UGGs as mentioned above, she listed UGG boots on her Oprah's favorite things of the year shows in 2003 and 2005. (Silverstein). Besides being a "maven," Oprah would qualify as a connecter and salesman as well: Connectors are "the kinds of people who know everyone and possess special gifts for bringing the world together. Salesmen "are the select group of people with the skills to persuade us when we are unconvinced of what we are hearing." (17) Another figure, according to Henrik Veljgaard, writing in Anatomy of a Trend, the surfer Brian Smith who introduced UGGs to the US, is a person who might be considered a connector, maven and, most certainly, a salesman. (114)
In the 1970s, Australian surfers began using what we now know as UGGS "to warm up their feet after surfing in cold water." The surfers also found that their sheepskin boots were comfortable in winter after skiing. American surfers who had surfed in Australia started bringing the boots back with them. But it was Aussie Brian Smith went to the United States with a few pairs of Ugg boots to try to sell them. He had little success in New York but found a market in LA, set up a company and started selling them. (114, 115)
Besides using the Gladwell model another way to look at trends is by using models proposed in the text used by many college students since its 1985 publication: A Rhetoric of Argument. Authors Jeanne Fahenstock and Marie Secor point to remote causes (the butterfly theory) and necessary causes, and absence of causes. (191-19--) The necessary cause of UGG boots (or any winter boot) is obvious: that they are needed to keep the feet protected and warm in cold weather. (Notwithstanding that they are used in warm weather, Uggs are designed primarily as a winter boot.) Remote causes are less obvious. However, since UGGs didn't reach its "tipping point" until 2003, the year UGGS were honored by Footwear News as the brand of the year, (citation) the surfer Brian Smith's importation of the boots in the 70s might be considered a remote cause. In the 2000s, countless variations of the sexy but uncomfortable stiletto heeled boots, which became very popular in the nineties, were (and are still) in style. Cowboy boots could have been an option but that fad ran its course with the John Travolta-Debra Winger inspired Urban Cowboy trend in the eighties. In addition, the very "uncool" George W. Bush (Ugh!) was wearing cowboy boots, a blocking cause for the once popular boot. So the absence of any other new fashion trend in women's boots opened up the market for UGGS.
Another way to dissect the UGG trend is to look at two of English philosopher John Mill's four methods of causality: The common factor method, the single-difference, the method of varying causes and effects, and the elimination method. Although all four methods might work, for brevity's sake we will look at the first two starting with the common factor method. (Fahenstock, 2--) From choosing our leaders to choosing fashions, (even adopting babies) trends in our culture are very often celebrity driven. We have already seen how Oprah Winfrey influenced the trend as a maven but also as a celebrity. Pamela Anderson, wearing UGGS with her bikini on Baywatch Australia (cite) was a major influence as well but the list of celebrity UGG wearers is extensive and includes: Madonna, Gwyneth Paltrow, Sarah Jessica Parker, Kate Hudson, Cameron Diaz, Nicole Kidman, Leonardo DiCaprio, Reese Witherspoon, Jennifer Aniston, Jennifer Lopez, and Julia Roberts. (Veljgaard, 117) The celebrity factor is a common factor in our culture as Gladwell mentioned in his opening chapter of the Tipping Point; Hush Puppies became popular partly because of celebrities like Isaac Mizrahi wearing them. (cite)
Of all the causes, the single-difference method may be the most important. Until Uggs came along, most of the boots worn by women were uncomfortable to some degree: stiletto heeled boots with the narrow toe and, to a lesser degree, women's cowboy boots that usually are narrow-towed. The single-difference between other popular women's boots and UGGs is comfort. The slipper like quality as well as the comfort of the Merino wool lining, which warms in the winter but cools in the summer by soaking up perspiration, is the single difference that sets UGGs apart from almost all other boots. Ironically, this same comfort quality is one which has led to criticism from the medical and public health community.
Some podiatrists have warned that Uggs are bad for the feet. The slipper like quality does not provide arch support. The sheepskin outers also allow the shoe to "give," causing the wearer's foot to slide inside the boot. According to doctors, this can lead to back pain. Public health officials have also warned not to wear UGGs to mountain climb as many have often done. One has to wonder if someone is that stupid, do they not deserve to fall off a cliff? UGGs spokespersons responded that UGGs are meant for normal day to day activity and shouldn't be used for any other purpose. (cite)
Finally, besides the possible the lack of arch support and dangerous improper use, a correlation exists that suggests that UGGs and alcohol don't mix. On May 16, 2008, an "extremely" inebriated British man rammed his stolen Renault into the entrance of a supermarket in Warwickshire, England. Wearing only a bed sheet and a pair of UGG boots, stolen from his girlfriend, David Ball purloined several cartons of cigarettes before leading police on a high speed chase ending in his crashing into two parked cars and, subsequently, being apprehended and taken into custody. Facing trial the following day, Ball pleaded for mercy, saying that he was too drunk to even remember the event and pointed to the recent death of his grandmother and his girlfriend's pregnancy as mitigating factors. The judge apparently wasn't sympathetic to his predicament and sentenced Ball to four years in jail. Being lead out of the courtroom, Ball gave a thumbs up sign to his family. (BBC) Conclusion: If you Ugg don't drink and if you drink don't Ugg.
UGG boots now come in 150 varieties. Their latest style is a very attractive rain boot that rivals the traditional UGGs in comfort; I know I am now wearing a pair. The department manager at Nordstrom's in downtown San Francisco where I purchased them says the UGG brand is enormously popular and that the traditional UGG boot (the tall plain shearling boot) continues to be a top seller. By filling a basic need, the need for comfortable warm boots to wear in winter, UGG has established itself as a brand that likely will be popular for years to come and the traditional UGG boot is positioned to become a staple for women seeking an alternative and relief from the ubiquitous stiletto heeled boots.
