I believe that the general consensus from everything I've read on people's various HRT timelines is that usually not a whole lot happens up to about 6 months. 0-6 months is the "groundwork" phase where some things change, varying from person to person (some change immediately, some change very slowly.) Once you hit that 6 month mark, that is when you can start expecting things to begin changing significantly, and they will continue changing significantly until around the 18-month mark, when it will start slowing down again. (I've heard somewhere that your feminizing changes will be about 80% complete by that 18-month mark, that you can't really make any final predictions about what you're going to look like as your new permanent post-transition self until the 2-year mark, and then the finishing touches will occur over several more years after that, with some additional feminization happening after orchiectomy/SRS. So right now at only the 2-month mark of full-blown HRT, you're less than 10% of the way there, LTL. Plus HRT changes kind of work on a bell-curve... they're slow to start, then speed up, then eventually start leveling off again as they reach the end. So really, it's probably more like 5%.)
From my personal experience, I did see a few changes up until the 6-month mark, but they really weren't that significant. Slight breast budding, slightly smoother skin, slightly more feminine fat distribution, but I really didn't feel like much was changing. I was still having a LOT of "OMG, nothing's changing, HRT isn't working on me" freakouts well into months 5 and 6. It seemed like no matter what I did, I was always going to be stuck with huge upper arms and a thick chest and bulky leg/chest muscles that were forever going to make me look like a hideous hulking mass. That was when, slowly, things started happening. Breast growth finally started advancing beyond just budding. I started putting on some more subcutaneous fat, and started getting a butt. And then suddenly, around the 8-month mark, one day I looked in the mirror and realized that I had lost a whole lot of that male bulk that I had been so worried about. My hands started looking slender. So did my legs. My arms didn't look so huge anymore. And it's not done yet, by any means. This is all still ongoing. It's still happening as I type these words, and I'm going to hit 9 months in about two days.
As far as "male fail" mode? Well, I'll tell you when I get there. Right now, I've still never been gendered female unless I'm wearing my wig and my feminine clothes. (My still-short hair probably has a lot to do with that.) So I can't tell you when that will come. It varies from person to person. I can tell you, though, that I really started feeling comfortable with my feminine presentation, enough so that I could go out in public without constantly feeling like every single part of my body was this hideous masculine thing that I had to do my best to hide, around the 8 month mark. And now, at the 9-month mark, this is the first time that I'm genuinely starting to feel like a normal woman when I'm out.
Here's another thing, though... I didn't notice most of these changes consciously. After a while, you settle into a pattern of being used to this constant state of change, and thus your mind just gets caught in old patterns of assuming that male features are still there even long after they aren't anymore. Like, with the muscle atrophy thing. I didn't consciously notice how small my arms had gotten until I compared them to a video that I'd taken about 4 months ago. Up until I directly compared, I assumed that they hadn't changed. But then suddenly when I looked at them, I realized, "holy smokes! They're like half as big as they used to be! I've been worrying about nothing this whole time!" So don't expect to notice much. It will always feel like nothing's changing, regardless of how much really is changing. You can really only know by keeping pictoral/video archives of the process, and looking back and comparing directly.
SIDE NOTE: My trans friends' experiences:
Arianna (started hormones at 27): was full-time very shortly after starting hormones, was getting "male fails" almost immediately (she started with a very feminine face and a full head of long hair naturally,) but she was still getting "sir" occasionally even with full makeup and female clothes on, up until somewhere around the 15-month mark. Her skin underwent a SIGNIFICANT improvement in appearance after the 3-year mark when she got SRS, and now 6 years in the only thing that has ever gotten her clocked is her voice, and she really doesn't even think about her gender anymore, she's just another girl.
Ariel (started hormones at 33): says that she didn't really start feeling comfortable as a girl until almost the 4-year mark. (She's a bit socially anxious, though.)
Dale (started hormones in her late 50's): says that she really started noticing the changes around the 8-9 month mark.
