You should always subtract fiber (not absorbed) from carbs to get the real value of carbs.
The key is INSULIN, other hormones also matter, like estradiol, progesterone, testosterone, growth hormones, cortisol, etc. These will dictate how your body burns and stores fat, uses sugar and protein. Furthermore, these effects will determine how much fuel is available to you and not stored away, what type of fuel you are using (carbs vs. fats), etc AND your appetite, your body weight, your lean mass, etc.
It's not how much you eat that matters but WHAT you eat as different foods affects differently hormones in the body, namely insulin. Genetics have an important role to play as well.
Carbs have the greatest effect on insulin secretion because insulin helps to decrease blood glucose levels which are increased when you consume carbs. Insulin is a fat storing hormone.
Gary Taubes' books, "Good Calories, Bad Calories" and "Why we get fat" explains it in more detail, with a ton of scientific references. You can also check him out on Youtube. Others include Peter Attia, Jeff Volek, involved in various studies done, Stephen Phinney, etc.