I would never take the word of someone accused of murder on face value, but neither do I take the statements of the police or DA on face value either.
Given the press so far, and I assume the police have far more evidence and statements that have not been released, murder is open and shut, but murder one with a death penalty attachment might be over-reaching. Murder one is hard to prove, though the third hit would do it for me - but people like me would never be allowed on the jury in the first place.
I would hate to see this guy skip due to overcharging done for reasons of political grandstanding, though what he is charged with is not necessarily what he is going to be indited for. A murder two charge - depraved indifference to human life - might be an easier sell.
Its my hope that he is charged and indited for both murder one and two, and pleas to murder two in exchange for taking the death penalty off the table. A plea reduces the amount of appeals to almost zero, its easier to find 12 people to convict, and for the punishment folks, it puts him in general population, rather than the isolation of death row.