Worried About Marriage in California
by: ACLU
Fri Sep 19, 2008 at 13:54:13 PM EDT
http://pamshouseblend.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7091( - promoted by Autumn Sandeen)
By Matt Coles, Director, ACLU Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender Project
Frankly, I'm worried about Proposition 8 on the November California ballot. That's the initiative that would end marriage for same-sex couples.
There are reasons to feel good. The latest California Field Poll shows us ahead by a very respectable 55 percent to their 38 percent. But when you look beneath the surface, the situation is a little more complex. All of the in depth research appears to show: 1) we have a solid 40 to 42 percent; 2) they have a solid 38 to 40 percent; 3) we're both chasing the remaining 16 to 20 percent. That remaining 16 to20 percent is made up of voters who are deeply conflicted; they don't like marriage for same-sex couples, but they also don't like the idea of voting to take someone's rights away.
What the Field Poll and some other polls like it suggest is that we are getting most of those conflicted voters right now. But it doesn't tell us that we've completely convinced them — just that at the moment they are resolving the conflict our way. That may well reflect the fact that almost all of the news coverage so far has been positive, and the other side hasn't even begun to hit yet on television.
