Are you scared about the economy and how is the economy in your area?

[Just Mandy]

My intention was not to scare anyone. My heart would like someone to say everything is
going to be fine. But my head tells me it's not. Some more observations from every day life:

Go to your Home Depot on a Saturday morning... mine used to be so crowded that it was
not worth going.... now it's like a ghost town. And when your there check out the gobs
of inventory they have... floor to ceiling materials... not a good sign.

Take a look at car lots.... tons of cars sit un-sold, inventory build-up is a bad sign. Read today that
Daimler is shutting down production for the month of December. A WHOLE month.

Houses... you all know about that...

Jobs... how many friends do you have that are unemployed that have never been unemployed?

Food... it takes a lot more to eat this year than last.

Business... the biggest most successful business's in the world (GE comes to mind) are close
to collapse. The Europe banking system is closer to failure than ours. It may just be a matter of
days. In fact I think we will know by the end of the year how this is going to play out. My guess
is the DOW will be around 4000 if not this year, then next. And 2009 is going to be horrible for everyone
if and when that happens.

I'm proud to be a drama queen if one person here reads this and is able to plan ahead and save
themselves some misery (ie don't but that new car, house, change jobs, etc).

Amanda

[sd]

Also don't believe the government numbers for un-employment and inflation, they are all rigged.

Not only rigged, but also behind.

[myles]

Unemployment numbers are definitely not using what I would consider the best information, since they don't count people who have flat out given up looking for work, the underemployed and so on. The only way I think they can really be used is to compare across time sicne we have always used the same bad information (this was calculated differently during the depression) but the same during the latest recessions. Of course the goverment doesn't want to count some of the other people as the number would then be higher.

Posted on: October 27, 2008, 01:45:19 pmAmanda- I definitely don't think you are being a drama queen on this. While the part of town I live in has not been hard hit and I do not know anyone who has lost a job that is not the case in the area I moved form. I moved from a small town in California where the housing market collapsed after I moved, sold my house intime barely, and people thought I took a hit by lowering the price substantually, it is now worth 100K less than I sold it for. People there are losing their jobs right and left, my brother moved and left his house empty eventually negatioated a better rate as he was in an upside down mortgage, allowing him to rent it out instead of walk away from it. My sister in law whos family stayed is not in the same boat but looking at forclosure and bankruptcy. I think a lot of people over extended themselves, between credit card debt and refinancing their homes over and over again and now a huge dose of reality is hitting. I think I will just head back to work to feel safe. It's funny my friends think I am being mellow dramatic by getting a job, I think of it as a safety net, the last time I checked you couldn't have too much money.
I think you raise a lot of good points on this issue. It is interesting how some parts of the US are definitely being hit harder than others.

[RebeccaFog]

I'm not scared, but then, I am a fool.

We have a little manufacturing in my town. Some is suffering because they relied on making parts for the stupid auto industry. Some are fine because they have customers in different industries.

We have a huge tourist population spring summer fall, in fact, they stay right up until Thanksgiving, then are gone.

We have the usual retail suspects. We have a ton of small businesses. lawyers, real estate people, and other service things like auto repair.

A movie studio is about to be built where they will need several thousand employees.  They have been having open seminars in the memorial hall because there is a big interest.  Once the studio is up and running, there will be a lot of people making more money than they ever did. I guess they pay well. Move here and get a studio gig -
http://www.plymouthrockstudios.com/
I'll be playing dirty tricks on other applicants to be sure I get in.   

Things are tough right now. I have like $30.00 in my bank account. But I see no point in being scared until I find myself up against the wall. I forgot to say I have no debt other than the house, so, if necessary, I can carry a little debt without getting too hurt by it.

I do have to come up with a way to increase my $30.00, though.

[joannatsf]

Lately I've taken to watching The News Hour on PBS for reasons other than insomnia.  They recently had an interview with Nassim Nicholus Talib, the author of the The Black Swan and Chaos theory, specifly the Butterfy Effect, as relates to the banking industry.   This quote from the book offers insight into the current situation that is pretty scary.  (In Europe it was believed that black swans did not exist until explorers went to Austrailia in the 18th century and discovered there are black swans

Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks – when one fails, they all fall.  The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crises less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur ....I shiver at the thought

My own life is pretty safe but we have had layoffs.  By being to lazy to move the money in my 403 (b) out of money market my account is up about 1.5% vs. the market which is down god knows what on the year.  Who says laziness doesn't pay!

[lisagurl]

My life has not changed one bit. Other than the news and investment statements which I never spend anyway it is the same old, same old.

Perhaps people will be more human when they stop being consumers.

[debbie j]

Perhaps people will be more human when they stop being consumers.

it would be nice if that was to happen . but some how i very much dubt people will stop being consumers. oh true they might cut back on things

but i dont see them stopping. as it is need for us to be  human. and it is need for us to be consumers too . and why simple to keep things on the

move  but if they did stop being consumers i think  every thing will come to  a stand still. which to me is not a good thing

[Rachael]

My life has not changed one bit. Other than the news and investment statements which I never spend anyway it is the same old, same old.

Perhaps people will be more human when they stop being consumers.

Unlikely to EVER change. dont dream

[lisagurl]

and why simple to keep things on the

move   but if they did stop being consumers i think  every thing will come to  a stand still. which to me is not a good thing

People do not need most of the toys and entertainment that just gets thrown away. If much better quality things where made that lasted a lifetime and people worked less hours, only things like food and health care would be consumed. There would be more free time to enjoy human relations and learn. Also there would not be a need for the fast pace life that is not human. You can not buy your way to happiness. you just get tired of it and throw it away.

[debbie j]

and why simple to keep things on the

move   but if they did stop being consumers i think  every thing will come to  a stand still. which to me is not a good thing

People do not need most of the toys and entertainment that just gets thrown away. If much better quality things where made that lasted a lifetime and people worked less hours, only things like food and health care would be consumed. There would be more free time to enjoy human relations and learn. Also there would not be a need for the fast pace life that is not human. You can not buy your way to happiness. you just get tired of it and throw it away.

lisa lisa ok ok  i know where your  trying to go with this . and that would be greatto have the old days back again . but i hate to tell you this too lisa  it

ant going to happen it,s way to late for it . even tho granted it would be nice . but sigh that is now just a dream of the past . and to think that it used to

be the life of only the rich and famous . that just got tired of things and toss them away like some boaring  little play toy . and move on the newst thilling

toy,s . but like i said lisa it would be great to have this back again but i dont see it happening in any life times now

[Rachael]

Old days = fail, i LIKE being able to buy what sterio i want, not pick ONE, how do you expect people who work in the shops that sell these sterios to live if they dont have to sell them? and the makers? many jobs, consumerism is a long chain that wont ever end...

[Janet_Girl]

I am worried about the repercussions of the bailout.  I think that we may very well see the bottom drop out.  It is not going to be pretty.  But we as a county have survived worst times and we will again.

I am hoping that Obama and the Democrates will do better than the Republican have.

We shall see.

[lisagurl]

Nobody needs a stereo or TV they are mind numbing and keep you away from human relations and questioning things. They produce Alfa brain waves as opposed to beta waves of being focused. They are the major cause of attention deficit disorder. The public got addicted to the Alfa waves just like nicotine and will experience withdrawal symptoms for a while, the major corporations have done research on this and created this habit to control people like slaves. Welcome to the world of psychological mind control brought to you by the research of big money corporations and Government. Now all go and be good consumers and do not stop buying as you provide slave labor without question for the leaders. Do you not know any other way as they must have brainwashed you. It starts at home in front of the tube and is reinforced in school which is designed to produce workers.

[debbie j]

Nobody needs a stereo or TV they are mind numbing and keep you away from human relations and questioning things. They produce Alfa brain waves as opposed to beta waves of being focused. They are the major cause of attention deficit disorder. The public got addicted to the Alfa waves just like nicotine and will experience withdrawal symptoms for a while, the major corporations have done research on this and created this habit to control people like slaves. Welcome to the world of psychological mind control brought to you by the research of big money corporations and Government. Now all go and be good consumers and do not stop buying as you provide slave labor without question for the leaders. Do you not know any other way as they must have brainwashed you. It starts at home in front of the tube and is reinforced in school which is designed to produce workers.

your too much lisa too much  yes the tv and stereo can be mind numbeing . but they can also be a good place of information too.

like both the tv gives you the weather and the news of things that are going on in the world . and that could be made as a good debate

now but back then  it was not very usefull for a debate . as a better debate would have been used back then for the

attention deficit disorder. would have been  they are  dreaming of new places they have not been to yet or places they have seen

or the oldy but good they are just in dream land. and  it could be like nicotine or something strong say like coke or dust or weed .

which if that was the case  . that would not be a very pretty picture to see . thats if they could handle getting off the stuff in the

frist place with out loseing there minds or going mad . and besides that mind control  is too boring all you get in the end is a bunch of

robots . if wanted that would we have not made them by now  humm?? and  i dont think so i like it where iam at right now just fine and

dandy thank you very much  and there are many ways to know  and many things to learn and see as well

as do . and na they cant brainwashed us they got to find us frist for them to do that . and they ant had any luck so far  and i dont

think they will  and here all this time school  was a place to learn and maybe gain some great wisdom or

insight  . but lets say if  we was to do all this that your talking about lisa . do you really really honestly think it would really really

work or is it just a shot in the dark now i mean if  we did say distory the internet and tv radio . and all the other consumer stuff

and just went back to the way it was . dont you think they would not try to stop us from trying to reach this goal that we have

placed in front of our selfs to stop this consumersings . or would they be so consumed  from the withdrals that they would not be

able to stop us  humm interesting eh lisa 

[joannatsf]

Nobody needs a stereo or TV they are mind numbing and keep you away from human relations and questioning things. They produce Alfa brain waves as opposed to beta waves of being focused. They are the major cause of attention deficit disorder. The public got addicted to the Alfa waves just like nicotine and will experience withdrawal symptoms for a while, the major corporations have done research on this and created this habit to control people like slaves. Welcome to the world of psychological mind control brought to you by the research of big money corporations and Government. Now all go and be good consumers and do not stop buying as you provide slave labor without question for the leaders. Do you not know any other way as they must have brainwashed you. It starts at home in front of the tube and is reinforced in school which is designed to produce workers.

I guess I might as well catch a cab to The Bridge.  Scratch one urban wage slave from this Brave New World.

[Rachael]

Nobody needs a stereo or TV they are mind numbing and keep you away from human relations and questioning things. They produce Alfa brain waves as opposed to beta waves of being focused. They are the major cause of attention deficit disorder. The public got addicted to the Alfa waves just like nicotine and will experience withdrawal symptoms for a while, the major corporations have done research on this and created this habit to control people like slaves. Welcome to the world of psychological mind control brought to you by the research of big money corporations and Government. Now all go and be good consumers and do not stop buying as you provide slave labor without question for the leaders. Do you not know any other way as they must have brainwashed you. It starts at home in front of the tube and is reinforced in school which is designed to produce workers.

Dude... paranoia much....?

the tv is not a mind control device to produce good workers...

it shows shows you like... en-ter-tain-ment i belive its called...

I'm afraid the luddite aproach to life and philosphy is wearing rather thin. and the drama llamas are tired hon.

[cindianna_jones]

Please, don't be afraid of what will happen in the near future. Things are going to get tight. They might get really tight.  But we won't have runs on the banks.  You might want to make sure you keep a couple hundred in cash for an emergency.  That way you can put gas in your car if there is a cash crunch.

Obama's tax plans have no chance to be implemented until 2010 at the minimum.  The budget for 2009 is already in play and we'll go into debt another 550 billion dollars.  I'm sick of hearng about tax cuts for special interests, middle class, and the wealthy.  We need to collect enough money to pay the bills or cut back to match revenues.  Going back to the tax model of the 90's is perfectly doable and shouldn't affect small business the way the McCain campaign is trying to claim.  I say put a hold on it for now and make adjustments for the next budget period.  I'm pretty sure that's what Obama would do.  Also, he's going to need someone in Congress propose the new legislation and it needs to be approved. Remember, the president really can't raise or lower taxes.... that is the job of the legislature.

The taxes under current discussion are the "capital gains" taxes.  The wealthiest of Americans make their money in capital gains. That is in selling securities and property.  In most cases, small businesses have nothing to do with "capital gains" taxes.  I know.  I ran a small business for years and that tax cut provided NOTHING for my small business. 

Here's the thing.  Consider that the capital gains rate was cut by Bush from 20 percent to 15 percent.  Someone working for a salary will pay up to a  33 tax rate of her salary (at 250,000 dollars per year).   So the rich making their money from their portfolio only pay 15 percent and the working stiff pays 33 percent.

Warren Buffet admits that he pays a lower percentage of his income than his secretary.  McCain wants to cut capital gains again from 15 percent to 7.5 percent.  Now, tell me.  Is that fair?  How in the HELL does that affect small business?  This TAX applies to investment portfolios!  Sheesh. Nope.... no small business in there.

So don't worry about the tax plan of Obama.  His plan actually makes more sense than McCain's which runs up the national debt.  It is NOT a tax hike on small business.  It is a readjustment for those with investment portfolios to the levels of the 1990's.

The Bush cut from 20 to 15 percent cost 300 billion in lost revenues.  And now, McCain's idea will more than double that.

Consider now the budget defecit of 550 billion.  That 300 billion would come in handy right?  And what do these people do with all that money that they no longer pay in taxes?  Do they hire people?  Are you kidding?  I've traded securities.  It's my personal gig.  I'd never hire someone with that money?   What would I have them do?  It was never connected to my small business.

So, if Obama can get his tax plan implemented, we'll roll back to tax levels of the 90's.  Frankly, the 90's were pretty good for me.  Everyone was working and I made more money then than any other time in my life.

But, if you are still going to be worried, do something about it.  Keep some extra cash on hand, stock up your pantry with food that won't spoil (and stuff that you will eat), and figure out what you need to do to get by in diverse situations.  For example, it's a good exercise to figure out how you would live for a couple of days without electricity.

Cindi

[lisagurl]

the TV is not a mind control device to produce good workers...

it shows shows you like... en-ter-tain-ment i belive its called...

Even the thought of losing the "nicotine" of the consumption God causes a panic.

Do you not know how to entertain yourself? Oh that must be a skill of the past.

[Just Mandy]

There already have been bank runs, the difference is the Fed is willing to print ANY amount of money to prevent
a banking collapse. Just look at the Fed banking numbers and you can see how much money has left the system.
But the Fed MUST print all this money. Printing money like they are is very bad but it's the best of two evils, let the
banks collapse or trade for hyper inflation next year, or the year after. Adding to the money supply creates
inflation and allows everyone: government, business and personal debt to be paid off with cheaper dollars. But it also
means we pay more, much more in this case for our cost of living. And wages tend not to increase at the same rate as
the cost of living and you end up with stagflation like the 1970's at the very best and an inflationary depression at
the worst. These problems the world faces in the next two or three years are epic in proportion to 1929 and the
Great Depression. And I think it's bigger than McCain and Obama. I think regardless of who wins all they can do is go from
crisis to crisis until the whole thing implodes.

For a minute think about how we compare to the independent society in 1929:

In 1929 there was almost non-existent taxes and a big government to support

In 1929 there was little infrastructure that needed to be maintained like roads, bridges, government buildings

In 1929 most people lived within walking distance of work

In 1929 we did not depend on energy (electricity and oil) and technology for heat and transportation

In 1929 ALL the oil we used was produced here

In 1929 imports of cheap goods was non-existent, everything was Made in America

In 1929 jobs were not outsourced overseas to cheap labor

In 1929 most of the US spoke English and felt they had some stake in the country as a whole, there
was deep national pride.

In 1929 we did not have a huge influx of illegal immigrants that are poorly assimilated, locked out of the tax system,
yet drag down our schools and healthcare facilities and don't even bother to learn our culture, language and ideals.

In 1929 poverty was not anywhere near 20% and there was no welfare or medicare drags on the economy

In 1929 we did not have greedy healthcare system run at huge profits for basic healthcare needs.

In 1929 we did not spend an average of $12,000 a year on health insurance to insure those basic needs.

In 1929 we did not have a baby boom generation about to retire and have to support on social security because thier
retirement is gone with the crash of the stock market.

In 1929 most families were somewhat self sufficient, they hunted, grew their own food, raised chickens, etc.

In 1929 we did not have a huge war on terrorism going on with no clear enemy and no clear end

In 1929 personal and public debt was non-existent

In 1929 we did not have rampant crime and thugs in our cities

1n 1929 we did not have huge prison systems

In 1929 we did not have a corrupt political system (regardless of who is in power)


I could go on and on but based on this view I think if things get bad they will spiral down very quickly becuase
I think our society today is much weaker than in 1929. It is clear to me at least that the remainder of
my life will not be anywhere near as big a party as the first half.

It's hard for me not to look at things and think how sad for everyone and how bleak things look. Please,
please let me be wrong.

Amanda

[Rachael]

the TV is not a mind control device to produce good workers...

it shows shows you like... en-ter-tain-ment i belive its called...

Even the thought of losing the "nicotine" of the consumption God causes a panic.

Do you not know how to entertain yourself? Oh that must be a skill of the past.

well yes... i just put my fingers he... wait a minute....

yeah, in all seriousness i do... i rarely watch tv... so im sorry, your case falls flat. I watch tv shows occasionally, some specifics like NCIS... Im an airsofter... i make gear and upgrade the rifles and custom build some, i mod gta... so yes, i know how to entertain myself, but tbh, TV is just another way to do that, sorry, but you're just spouting utter crap, and turning any reply into some form of agreememt for you....

btw, im a smoker, and dont really give a turnip