On the simple question: can voice surgery work? The answer seems to be ... it often didn't work in the past but it's getting a LOT better. The more complicated answer is as follows ...
I am about to start voice training with Christella Antoni, the senior voice therapist at the Gender Identity Clinic at London's Charing Cross Hospital, which is the UK's specialist centre for MTF and FTM transgender patients. Essentially, it's a one-stop-shop for anyone who wants to transition: I'm not aware of there being any equivalent in the US, but I could be wrong. When I went for my initial consultation, she told me that in the past she had always advised her patients not to have surgery, since the best way to get a convincing female voice was simply to train and practice, so as to increase pitch, take out those male bottom-notes and (in her view the most important thing) learn female speech-patterns, inflections and the use of higher pitch, rather than louder volume to create emphasis or express intense emotion.
BUT ... Christella now thinks that the ear, nose & throat surgeons at Charing Cross have improved their techniques to the point where she can now recommend her patients to have surgery. She thinks that the knowledge that they cannot now fall into the low male register relaxes TG girls ... ironically, it often makes them speak at a slightly lower register, since they're not straining to sound high-pitched and girly. But because they're more relaxed they sound much more natural and therefore convincing.
BUT (again!) ... She also said that there is absolutely no point having surgery if you haven't already trained your voice. Without training you'll just sound like a man with a thin, reedy, effeminate voice ... but not a female voice.
SO ... and please note that I am merely passing on the views of a professional specialist, not making any judgements of my own ... get your voice as good as you can by non-surgical means, THEN consider surgery ...
Hope that helps!!