I started on Climara patches, and switched to Vivelle Dot because the Climara (well, I was using the generics, the brand name may not be so awful) never stuck right and were *humongous.* On both patches, I was at a very low dose; without getting into specific numbers, it's always been within the range prescribed to menopausal cis women. In fact, I am apparently receptive enough, or something, that even within that range I was showing signs of liver damage at the starting dosage and had my original dose halved... We never did figure out what was going on there.
Anyway, I think it must vary *so* much by individual, because I had breast buds and soreness by 5 days, and skin softening and facial changes within a month or so. I ended up having to go full-time at work sooner than I planned b/c I couldn't hide what was changing anymore. But again, it's the luck of the draw - I got some nice effects, but I've also never seen my "masculine pot belly" diminish or any real waistline develop, and the fat distribution was VERY slow, like to the point where it's only now at just past the 3-year mark that I'm getting a bit of a butt and hips.
(I started at 32, and also had GRS not quite a year ago.)