I think you severely misunderstand the intentions of of both the Russian and Western governments. Last time I checked, NATO did not and had no intentions of sneaking troops in and carving off chunks of Ukraine or any other country.   Actions speak volumes.

Quote from: JamesG on March 23, 2014, 10:20:28 PM
I think you severely misunderstand the intentions of of both the Russian and Western governments. Last time I checked, NATO did not and had no intentions of sneaking troops in and carving off chunks of Ukraine or any other country.   Actions speak volumes.

The now G-7 and NATO have no intention other than use of threats and war-like rhetoric to address something that is outside of their control which is nothing more than a face saving effort. Putin knows this and will do what he has to do as the opportunity is ripe and no-one will risk global thermonuclear annihilation over this and Putin knows it.

Quote from: JamesG on March 23, 2014, 10:20:28 PM
I think you severely misunderstand the intentions of of both the Russian and Western governments. Last time I checked, NATO did not and had no intentions of sneaking troops in and carving off chunks of Ukraine or any other country.   Actions speak volumes.

There is profit to be made from the exploitation of Ukrainian labor and resources. This is standard practice for the EU: coercing countries into joining and siphoning the wealth from the residents into the hands of the wealthy of countries with lots of influence in the EU (Germany, for example). This is the go-to strategy of global neoliberal politics - China, Russia, and the US do it too, not just the EU.

Quote from: Shantel on March 23, 2014, 10:37:32 PM
The now G-7 and NATO have no intention other than use of threats and war-like rhetoric to address something that is outside of their control which is nothing more than a face saving effort. Putin knows this and will do what he has to do as the opportunity is ripe and no-one will risk global thermonuclear annihilation over this and Putin knows it.

The possibility of nuclear war was never a factor in this conflict. Obama and Putin aren't suicidal fanatics bent on world destruction; neither is the US Congress or Federal Assembly of Russia filled with such people.

The danger is to the working people of Ukraine. The US is backing right-wing and fascist groups in Ukraine; Russia is militarily occupying the country. Both sides are intent on using Ukraine for the benefit of their respective business interests.

You're funny Vi, "Imperialists", "fascists"? Really? Are you having Cold War flashbacks, or are you just parroting Russian propaganda?  The only people acting like fascists here are the Russians.

Nuclear weapons are the 800lb. gorilla in the room. it is what keeps everyone polite. On the surface anyway.

Quote from: kariann330 on March 19, 2014, 11:38:35 AM

Also if Putin does break free of his chains, do you see the USSR being rebuilt, or even worse a boots on the ground, full scale WW3?

Not a chance.

1.  Nuclear Weaponry on both sides has been, and will continue to be, a great deterrent for both sides.
2.  Even of both sides were to stay conventional and enter a war, Russia would be hard pressed to fight it.  As of right now the US is the only country that operates super-carriers. And we just don't have one or two of these puppies, we have 12 or 13.  WWII redefined both naval fighting and the overall definition of a global fighting force.  Without carriers, you are flat-out unable to conduct a global war.  You are simply out of the game.  This also goes with space infrastructure, something like 80% of all satellites are owned and operated by the US Government and it's allies.
3.  Russia would not reorganize it's entire government to go back to USSR-type politics just before a global war.  Furthermore taking such actions would inevitably lead to several of Russia's satellite states to become separatist igniting a civil war.
4.  Russia would be hard pressed to find committal allies.  China wouldn't side because China has a lot to lose financially if it did.  Furthermore any entering of a war by China will push Japan and South Korea into the war, and will put Taiwan even further out of reach.  Sure Russia could probably get Iran, North Korea, and a few other states but lets compare those friends to the likes of UK, Canada, Japan, France, and Germany.  Some of our allies operate their own--albeit smaller--carriers.
5. Finally Russia isn't financially in position to fight a war economically or politically.  While it isn't wildly known, Russia's GDP per capita was higher in the Soviet Era.

-AM

Quote from: Androgynous_Machine on April 29, 2014, 01:23:34 PM
Not a chance.

1.  Nuclear Weaponry on both sides has been, and will continue to be, a great deterrent for both sides.

But it does not prevent proxy wars (which is what the Ukrainian vs. "seperatists" fight is).

Quote
2.  Even of both sides were to stay conventional and enter a war, Russia would be hard pressed to fight it.  As of right now the US is the only country that operates super-carriers. And we just don't have one or two of these puppies, we have 12 or 13. 

The US does not dare move CBGs in to the Black Sea where they would be sitting ducks for the Russian Navy. The USN would be to busy fighting for sea control (ie; keep its ships afloat) to be able to do much to influence events in Ukraine.  That means they would be out in the Med. and Turkey allowing overflights is not a guarantee.

QuoteWWII redefined both naval fighting and the overall definition of a global fighting force.  Without carriers, you are flat-out unable to conduct a global war.

The Russians aren't fighting a global war.  They are fighting a regional conflict right on their border.

Quote
This also goes with space infrastructure, something like 80% of all satellites are owned and operated by the US Government and it's allies.

Which is extremely vulnerable. Seen "Gravity"?

Quote
4.  Russia would be hard pressed to find committal allies.  China wouldn't side because China has a lot to lose financially if it did.  Furthermore any entering of a war by China will push Japan and South Korea into the war, and will put Taiwan even further out of reach.  Sure Russia could probably get Iran, North Korea, and a few other states but lets compare those friends to the likes of UK, Canada, Japan, France, and Germany.  Some of our allies operate their own--albeit smaller--carriers.

Unless the strategy is for everyone to go crazy together and overtax the US/NATO.  The US could barely handle any one conflict, it would not be able to handle 3 or more.  But that is "Bear and Dragon" silliness. This is a regional conflict, no one is going to start WWIII over Ukraine.  The EU can't even summon the courage to cut off Russian oil. They sure as hell aren't going to send troops.

Quote
5. Finally Russia isn't financially in position to fight a war economically or politically.  While it isn't wildly known, Russia's GDP per capita was higher in the Soviet Era.

Russia is a lot smaller than the USSR was.  If Putin gets pushed hard enough, he may decide to push back.  He could make a mess out of Western Europe without setting a single jackboot in Poland or Lithuania.

You are right James, Putin can push back hard and fast and without having to resort to placing any of his military in harms way.  They control the oil.

Now Russia has stated they may not extend credit to the Ukraine where it comes to the purchasing of oil. What good is G7 US NATO sanctions when any and every loan given to the Ukraine goes to Russia to purchase the oil they need.  Oh I hear people say they can buy oil from other countries Middle East, North Sea perhaps. Germany is one of the largest European importers of Russian oil it's not that easy.  They have also started to sell more oil to China again who is going to pick up this slack, conventional warfare China would sit on the sidelines but if you looked at the Olympic coverage economically they are becoming close allies.

Speaking of economics Russia was heavily involved in helping to stabilize the Cyprus banking crisis, what may happen if they take their bat and ball and decide to go home.

Might makes right may of worked last century but in today's world money talks. Remember Crimea was not the first to want to come back to Russia, they just the first that actually did

Quibbles:

The Russians and Chinese really REALLY don't like or trust each other. It's a long way from the Russian oil/gas fields to Chinese coastal industrial cities and there is no infrastructure to get it there. It would take about as long to build that out as it would be for the US to build out oil and gas transhipment to Europe.  Null set.

I think the Chinese would love to see Russia and NATO come to fisticuffs over Ukraine. Do the Chinese eat popcorn at the movies?

The Russians had/have an interest in in keeping Cyprus financially afloat, namely the billions or Rubles Putin's buddy oligarchs have stashed away there.

Crimea didn't want to come back to Russia, the old retirees didn't give a crap who was in charge in Kiev as long as their pensions kept rolling in and the cost of living was cheap. Russia didn't want Ukraine to get ideas about joining NATO/EU and taking their Black Sea port with them.  All of this Russian nationalist crap is just window dressing Putin
's geopolitical moves. 

Quote from: JamesG on April 29, 2014, 03:15:21 PM
But it does not prevent proxy wars (which is what the Ukrainian vs. "seperatists" fight is).

The US does not dare move CBGs in to the Black Sea where they would be sitting ducks for the Russian Navy. The USN would be to busy fighting for sea control (ie; keep its ships afloat) to be able to do much to influence events in Ukraine.  That means they would be out in the Med. and Turkey allowing overflights is not a guarantee.
 

The Russians aren't fighting a global war.  They are fighting a regional conflict right on their border.

Which is extremely vulnerable. Seen "Gravity"?

Unless the strategy is for everyone to go crazy together and overtax the US/NATO.  The US could barely handle any one conflict, it would not be able to handle 3 or more.  But that is "Bear and Dragon" silliness. This is a regional conflict, no one is going to start WWIII over Ukraine.  The EU can't even summon the courage to cut off Russian oil. They sure as hell aren't going to send troops.

Russia is a lot smaller than the USSR was.  If Putin gets pushed hard enough, he may decide to push back.  He could make a mess out of Western Europe without setting a single jackboot in Poland or Lithuania.

My ENTIRE post was in response to OP asking if this would escalate into a world war which would most certainly be a global war.  Which by the way, Russia is ill-prepared to wage for my aforementioned reasons.

QuoteWhich is extremely vulnerable. Seen "Gravity"?

Because Hollywood always does a wonderful job of portraying things correctly right?  Do you honestly believe all the eggheads (Physicists, Astro-Physicists, et. al.) in the variable alphabetical soups of agencies would place satellites in such a way where you could lose all of them so easily?

-AM

Quote from: Androgynous_Machine on April 29, 2014, 09:47:19 PM
Which by the way, Russia is ill-prepared to wage for my aforementioned reasons.

So are we.  You might have noticed the US is beyond broke. We can't even afford to fight another small regional war with a third-rate country like Iraq, much less throw down with a major power like Russia.  A global war would be a disaster for everyone, which is why it won't happen.

Quote
Do you honestly believe all the eggheads (Physicists, Astro-Physicists, et. al.) in the variable alphabetical soups of agencies would place satellites in such a way where you could lose all of them so easily?

Yes.

Look up Kessler Syndrome.  Because of the way orbital dynamics work is a very real possibility.

The biggest problem is that Bully's like Putin will see our backing down as a weakness on our part and then will not hesitate to continue annexing states untill he has attained or exeeded his Aim of restoring the old USSR .Be afraid very very afraid because these type of people will only respect superior forces and People that are not afraid to use them .That lets out the US ,NATO ,UK .do I need to say more stop him now or he will be UNSTOPPABLE.We have seen the RUSSIAN MINDSET in action before and You can be certain that it HAS NOT CHANGED.

Quote from: JamesG on April 30, 2014, 06:23:39 AM
So are we. 

Please.  This recession "recovery" is slow but fine. The US entered a global war, started the largest military buildup in history, and effectively ground the most powerful navy in the world at the time (Imperial Japan) to dust all while under depression conditions, gutted manufacturing, ailed agriculture, and even higher debt:GDP than exists today.

The US has done far more in much worse conditions.  Make no mistake, if a global world war needed to be fought, the US could afford it near indefinitely, that's the beauty in being the world trade currency.

-AM

Quote from: Androgynous_Machine on April 30, 2014, 12:41:58 PM
Please. 

The US had a far greater industrial base then both compared to now and relative to the rest of the world.  The US was not already TRILLIONS of dollars in debt, running BILLIONS of dollar yearly deficits.  The recession is not "recovering" it has been papered over by billions of fiat dollars given to prop up corporate and financial institutions.

Quote
The US has done far more in much worse conditions.  Make no mistake, if a global world war needed to be fought, the US could afford it near indefinitely, that's the beauty in being the world trade currency.

Which isn't going to last long, esp. if the US goes to war with the 2nd largest (soon 1st) economic power.  The US is currently on a path that is fiscally unsustainable. And that is without any expensive high-intensity wars to pay for.

Quote from: JamesG on April 29, 2014, 06:28:28 PM
I think the Chinese would love to see Russia and NATO come to fisticuffs over Ukraine. Do the Chinese eat popcorn at the movies?

I know they eat fried scorpions & deep fried locusts as snacky finger food, I just don't know if they eat them at the cinema 

It seems to be not just America that has seemed toothless in recent months.

We had a big fuss in the UK a few months ago about Russia's anti LGBT stance, we threatened to pull out of the olympics & then did absolutely nothing but trot alont to the olympics like a bunch of spaniel puppies with our tails between our legs.
We then had a big fuss about Ukraine, we puffed out our chests, we blustered & went red in the face whilst making vauge non-commital threats & then we rolled over in submission & asked Putin to rub our bellies.

In completely unrelated news it would appear that we are approaching elections & i'm sure that after the public moaning for years about being sick of us being dragged into overseas conflicts then UK politicians wouldn't be afraid of losing votes by getting us into another unwanted conflict 

Sometimes a bully needs to be clipped round the ear before they get worse

It seems the general idea in this thread is that this issue is guided by more factors than brute military force, which I am glad to see. Maybe because of the internet, the public seems to have much more information about the intricate details of the situations than earlier generations would have on earlier issues.

My view on this is that a proxy war will/would be the height of military escalation here, largely due to current generation military tech. One embarrassment of the cold war era is the time Russia confused a US military drill for a nuclear attack. Current sensory equipment is immensely more sophisticated, especially the tracking of small things in orbit.

Much modern military tech focuses on shielding an area from attack. The advancements in offensive technology have created extremely powerful and stealthy weapons (like the modern submarines, hypersonic missiles, cybernetic attacks (Stuxnet), EMP weapons, telecommunications jamming). The bonds of the global economy also work to keep large scale wars in check, though this has more grey areas.

I see the public awareness of the issue as a large positive force here, as an ignorant public may not oppose its government going war. Again though, the grey areas. International conflicts are never as simple as an easy summary given in a news report. I am hopeful about it though, since so many minds are working on this. That said, the degrading relations between the Russian and American space agencies saddens me.




*My views on the issue are biased by my past military service, and limited by my focus on academics over the news*

I would to see Ukraine join NATO. Russia will back off, Putin is not stupid