Since you're starting HRT in your puberty your pelvis should widen at least a bit. As you said "how much" depends on your genes, but I'm pretty sure It will do. About your shoulders is kinda possible they will narrow a little since you could lose some muscle mass (not sure if you have any, you are way too young). Anyway, thanks to pelvic widening even if you don't lose muscle mass your shoulders will look narrower.