Well, I am done although I would still like to get a facelift, but someone else will have to finance it.

(I am putting an ad on e-bay  >)

But I am wondering if overseas costs for Yanks will skyrocket as the dollar sinks although the Thais are taking steps to keep the Baht low vis a vis the US Dollar. It was a big concern when I was there.

Posted on: October 21, 2007, 11:41:03 AM

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Well, I looked it up and the baht hot an alltime high while I was there (due to my visit, no doubt!) since then, the Thais have managed to keep it around 31 and change. The dollar was buying around 41 baht in 2004, then has been declining.

I guess everything is OK now but if the dollar collapses, it's Katy bar the door, so I would asy book your SRS ASAP if you are looking at Thailand and are going to pay in USD.

HEHE, well the Canadian dollar is now worth 1.03 US dollars, so for me the US dollar can't go low enough since I buy so much stuff labeled in US dollars and one of the top SRS surgeon is in my home town.

Menard?

Menard, is just about retired, I was talking about Brassard, who did my Rhino and type I brow bossing shave last year.

Brassard, yes, I actually was thinking of him. Dr O has spoken highly of him.

Cosmetic Surgery in the U.S is much cheaper than it is in the U.K......

also everything else is cheaper in the U.S as well.....houses....cars...food.....gas...etc.

Being in the receiving end of the exchange rate I would definately benefit from the strong Australian Dollar. As a comparison, a surgical procedure priced at US$ 20,000 6 months ago would have cost me AU$ 24,000, while with today's rate it would cost me AU$ 22,000. I only wish I had the money NOW!

Some predict the AU$ will perhaps match the US$ before it turns. Today it is approx 0.91

Burliegh:
Would you say the average wage in the UK is higher than in the US? I know that a lot of things here in Australia are cheaper than in my home country in Europe, but the wages are also relatively lower so the cost of living isn't necessarily worse. Plastic surgery here in Oz is very expensive and many chose to go to Asian countries for their procedures, the trip is only about $1000 round trip and many Australians have Asian heritage and may even have family to stay with. I have considered Bangkok myself but I have a few decisions to make with my life first. The surgeons in Thailand quote their prices in US$ but I'm sure they adjust their Bhat according to the AU$ before conversion.

The dollar will more than likely strengthen next year so I do not expect it to be a long term problem. The bigger problem is that the oil bubble is going to pop sometime in the next few years and if it does so suddenly, we are going to see a lot of smaller countries take the hit extremely hard.

Lost in Time, I am not sure the oil bubble will pop.  Its a political barometer, but also one based on expansion.  For the oil bubble to pop both India and China would have to slow development and expansion.  That is not going to happen. The truth is we are reaching peak oil as well.  As much as you think there is going to be a collapse in the market, unlike the housing market in the US, oil is global, and with China and India bidding for oil contracts against US corporations, the price is going to go up.  There will be dips, but the price is going to remain above $80, if not $90 well into the future. 

The US dollar will streagthen though once the republicans are out of office.

A weak dollar was part of the Bush economic policy.

Quote from: Amy T. on October 22, 2007, 11:25:27 AM
The truth is we are reaching peak oil as well. 

According to what I've read, we already reached peak oil years ago, I believe it was in the 80s.

QuoteThe US dollar will streagthen though once the republicans are out of office.

A weak dollar was part of the Bush economic policy.

Well, he certainly achieved that goal... 

Z

We have not reached Peak Oil yet, but you can see it from here. Newer technology is making more oil recoverable from existing wells and new sources have been found in unexpected areas. Plus with the bubble that was created other technologies have been able to flourish in R&D. Marathon is updating their facilities with newer and more efficient equipment plus investing in oil sands. Alternative energy is here to stay now and will continue to come forward for the next decade.

Oil is going to average around the $70 for next year and decline from there. If not for the weak dollar and the bullish investors oil would be selling for what it is actually worth right now which is closer to the $45-50 mark. Depending on various factors, this could take about 5 years (some experts think as much as a decade) and that is fine as it allows for an easing of prices. The trouble will come up if the dollar strengthens quickly and if oil goes from $85 to $60 or lower very quickly.

India and China have been investing in technologies such as nuclear power and clean coal. As their alternative energy approaches expand, the more the overall demand will settle and allow the smaller countries to grow due to having a stronger reserve economy (which is in US dollars for most of the world) and access to less expensive energy supplies. With any luck this will lead to some third world countries coming into their own.

The US housing market is not a localised problem as something similar has happened across the pond as well. What the US does economically, in any market, impacts the rest of the world. The housing bubble is especially disturbing and the current administration has been frantically assuring the world that the problem is under control and will not spin the global economy off the scale.

And yes, I do write on US energy policies, the economy of energy, and current alternative energy technology on a regular basis but I will not reveal where. I also wish to stress that although the oil issue is going to ease, we need to make sure that we keep pushing towards clean and renewable energies. I believe that we need to do our best to strike a balance with our environment or at least do far better than we have in the past. For those who feel powerless, buy two CFLs for your place and then for someone else. Be sure to dispose of them properly once they burn out (my first one from 5.5 years ago finally burned out, well worth the $15 I paid for it at the time).

LIT, with that kind of certainty, you can become a very wealthy woman trading oil futures.

Everything I wrote comes from reading and interacting with leading experts on economics, energy, and experience with supply chain mechanics on a global scale. In college I was also exposed to quite a bit of global marketing and economics. Unfortunately I do not grasp languages easily enough so I was not able to do anything with that particular passion although I did try for a short stint in Germany and China about a decade ago (was passed over).

Can some thing unexpected happen to throw things off a bit? Yes. A dirty bomb in a major city anywhere in the world is a good example. Any kind of strike on US soil from terrorists. Major scandal involving vast economies (think Enron but bigger).

However, based on current situations what I have written is currently a very likely scenario. Two years ago I said that the bubble would not last this long but there were a few things now currently in play that were not a major factor then. That is why some have taken the view that this will last about 10 years. Personally I believe it will not be that long and I am not alone in that assessment. Time will tell.

Take a look back at history. The peak oil, the world is going to end, the end of cheap gas were predicted in the 70s and 80s. Not true then and not true now.

Besides if the dollar fails to recover we will have much larger issues to deal with and very unpleasant ones at that. However, all things end, even the United States.


Posted on: October 22, 2007, 22:52:13

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Oh and the last time I played around in the stock market. The stocks for the chosen companies (Wal-Mart & Wachovia) split, multiple times. I made about a 33% return. However, the high tax rate made it not worth while in the long run and with people wanting to tax that area even more, I am not interested unless I am able to play with some real money, say about $50K USD or so.

The oil issue is not going to ease until Americans stop driving SUVs and large trucks, and the Chinese and Indian emerging middle class stops buying cars.  In addition the oil prices are not going to ease until the middle east stabilizes.

Additionally Russia is going to start consuming their own oil soon because of economic development there.

As much as people who do energy policy purely by economics, it has been us political economist who have been right about oil prices the last few years.  Oil is the ultimate politics meets economics situation, because as much as raw numbers may say oil is going to drop...it just doesn't.  Why because the political instability of the world keeps it from happening.  Oil just happens to be in unstable places that can dictate supply one way or another.  Instability is part of the oil picture well into the future. 

Additionally while India and China maybe investing in clean coal and nuclear, they still are going competing in big oil contracts.

Also the best hope for oil is oil slate, which there is a ton of in Canada, only problem, its resource intensive to process.  The lowest oil is going to dip to because of oil slate becoming the primary resource for north american oil is around $65 a barrel. 

I could go on, but you are not the only person here who does analysis for a living.   
I respectfully disagree with your analysis.  As much as numbers may dictate lower oil prices, the political situation does not.  Basically there needs to be a diplomatic miracle of peace in the middle east for oil to drop, and a collapse in the Russian, Chinese and Indian economies, and simply put, that is unlikely.  It is in the best interest of oil producing countries to keep oil high.  Russia themselves has become expert manipulators, and OPECs ties to the US may be loosening.  Russia alone can send prices skyrocketing.  The supply and demand for crude is so thin between the two it can raise above $100 within minutes based purely on a political crisis...such as Turkey invading northern Iraq sparking a regional war and cutting off the valuable pipeline into the Mediterranian sea. 

Oil is a political commodity.  It goes down with stability and goes up with instability.  The only reason it sunk during the Clinton years so much was partially to do with 8 years of relative stability in the middle east.   China and India were not the factor they are now, and Russia did not become an economic force in its own right.  Oil is the only commodity that it is better to view through politics first and economics second, and the politics suggest high prices in the future no matter what. 

LIT's opinion on the future of oil prices might be correct. Or it is just as likely may not be. The only thing I know is that the markets will do what they want regardless of our opinions. I guessed right in the late 90's (sold out at the top of the internet bubble) and wound up with enough money to finance my surgeries. But I attribute this as much to luck as I do my  knowledge of the financial markets.

BTW I would agree that the current price of oil is overvalued. OTOH if Bush decides to bomb Iran, oil would most likely skyrocket to three figures.

The instability in the Middle East is IMNSHO the major factor in keeping oil prices high. If by some miracle, the ME became stable, oil prices would plummet to their "true" value.

EDIT: I hadn't read Amy T's post when I posted the above, or maybe my eyes subconsciously scanned this and, for once, we agree:

QuoteBasically there needs to be a diplomatic miracle of peace in the middle east for oil to drop.