My personal perspective:
I'm considering FFS because it will enhance how I view myself. I am not happy with some of my facial features even though some people tell me I'm fine. So in the end this is less about passing than it is about me.
And to be honest, passing is not hard now once you get into the groove of it. Now that I'm full time I'm more or less forced to "pass" by default. Or rather, I present female and simply don't worry about it.
Again, regarding the advice of, "you don't need it." I was told the same thing about voice surgery, how I should just train my voice and be happy with what I have, how surgery is risky etc etc. I still went ahead and did the VFS anyway. BEST DECISION EVER. My voice is effortless, passes 100% of the time and most importantly, I am happy with it.
So I say when deciding on FFS, get professional consults with face surgeons and also maybe virtual FFS. Then you decide for yourself whether it is necessary. Don't base it on passing, base it on your own happiness.
My plan is 1-2 years on hormones then I will evaluate with virtual FFS and then see if I will want to do actual FFS. My main concern is not really money, but it is pain, numbness and general surgical risks.
Good luck!