An update, since my doctor got back. I hopefully don't fall afoul of anything to say that she recommended an increase in Spiro and to hold off on more E2 until another test in about a month. I'm a bit cranky and of course want tests sooner and so on, but I'll defer to the doctor.
As for why... With the understanding that this is 100% theory, and mostly unprovable theory at that:
After several days of obsessing and thinking, I think it's most likely that my case is driven by some amount of Androgen insensitivity. I could go into tons of details, but basically, I've never been that strongly virilized.. My voice was frequently described as annoyingly high (long before I identified as trans - I always tried to lower it), I have relatively little body hair, my beard hair growth was mediocre. Physical ability, my face, etc... not feminine per se but on the feminine side of the masculine range.
Also my baseline T was rather high. Which, given feedback mechanisms, makes some sense.
When I got on HRT, I noticed effects very quickly, because even at a low Spiro dose, it was enough that E2 could shine through (and besides, aromatase could do its thing). Feedback being what it is my body responded by cranking up the T as best it could. So my T rebounded, as measured.
E2 is trickier to explain. There's really no reason for that to be low other than if I got a bad patch or a bad reading. Even with high T, I'd assume endogenous E2 would be high because Aromatase has more to work with. Sadly I don't have a baseline or anything to work with other than the 1 "good" measurement and the more recent "bad" one.
There are really more questions than answers down this rabbit hole, when I start looking at things like DHT, aromatase, etc. But it does create a path where it's plausible for me to get feminization with still having fairly high T numbers... especially with Spiro being an AR antagonist anyway.