I'm in the very awkward position of passing but not being out to my family or friends or college, a little over 6 months on HRT. Unless I wear obviously male clothing or speak in my guy voice, people in public think I'm female.
However, the changes have been gradual for the people that see me on a daily basis. If they do notice changes, they consciously attribute it to other things. I have a friend that asked the other day why I had such a "girl's hairstyle". Actually, it's just a loose shoulder-length, gender-neutral hairstyle, and he's displacing the changes in my face and skin to my longer hair.
If you read my intro, you know my family is extremely religious and conservative, as well as the local college I attend. I'm transferring to a new public university in the fall, with a year of courses left to graduate.
Until then I can't come out, though. I'm working and saving up money to pay for the bigger transition stuff later on, and living at home with my family really helps me save. I say it's about 50/50 chance I wouldn't be welcome here anymore if I came out suddenly today.. As for my current college, they don't accept openly homosexual students, so I think it's unlikely they'll be accepting of trans students.
It's really confusing to be perceived as male by my loved ones, but as female by strangers. Only about 3 months left and I can hopefully be myself at my new university. Still... 3 months seems like an eternity in a situation like this.