Hello Pat.
Hmm. Your friend seems to be between a rock and a hard place, from your description. I was wavering on whether I wanted to reply because this is 3rd party speculation based on a 2nd person account, but it's an interesting conundrum and one that is somewhat common, I think (under the umbrella of transgender). As a transman, I certainly understand the hesitancy to transition. It is not an easy road to travel. Neither is non-normativity, though. And as a guy who feels the desire/need to, at some point, have lower surgery, I also understand the concern about being a man without a (standard/functional) penis.
My concern with statements like "the rest of society doesn't think like that" is that she already deals with oppression (confrontations or strange looks in public restrooms, etc) because "the rest of society" is uncomfortable with anything other than dichotomous heteronormative expressions. Perhaps she thinks she is used to that, though. (I hated going into public bathrooms EVERY time and often did so with my then-breasts stuck out as an attempt to claim my right to be there.) "The rest of society" can see and react to non-normative gender expression; however, they can't see and react to my lack of a penis.
That said, your concern that she would feel more dysphoric as a man without a penis may be justified. That is also not easy to deal with, for many of us. The difference for me is that I felt pretty detached from my genitals before I transitioned, so there's no change there. (Well, detached in terms of looking, not playing! The mind can do amazing gymnastics to change the focus from what is physically there to what one mentally, emotionally (and spiritually, for me) feels.) I am no longer dysphoric, though, in terms of how I look with at least a pair of boxers on. Testosterone really does wonders with fat distribution and musculature. So, I'd say that, if your friend feels fine with her breasts and genitals, but binds and sometimes likes to pack, then the impetus to transition probably isn't that great. If, however, she is simply not transitioning because "the rest of society" disapproves of a genetic female who becomes a man without a penis, then that is a difficult position to be in. Any way you slice it, though, being transgender in this world at this time is a difficult position to be in. It is a position that I have found incredibly profound, though. I get the distinct pleasure of experiencing life outside the realm of conventionality. And, as long as one identifies as post-conventional, what "the rest of society" thinks becomes less and less important. Let them have their conformity cake and eat it too...it tastes like sawdust to me. They can continue to delude themselves that it is sweet. We all have our own little pet delusions anyway because what the hell is "reality" but largely a set of social constructions? And now I am digressing...
Good luck and tread lightly, my friend.
Colin