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"Sometimes, people will start talking about Oscar so early," says one strategist, "and then the film comes out and it's not an awards film, it's just a good film. But now, everyone sees it as a loser."

During awards season, academy members are awash in DVDs. The rule of thumb is that they will watch 10, although they likely will have seen others before the nominations are out. So again, you have to get your people out, if only to remind voters that the actors are not the characters they play and that a lot of effort went into making the film. That is why Oscar ads for "Transamerica" showed two images of best actress nominee Felicity Huffman. One as gleaming movie star, the other as troubled transgender woman.