No one expects it to pass. Its going to fail, leaving the Cal. Supreme Court ruling of last year pertaining to SF allowing people to marry, regardless of sex or gender (there were several TS marriages in all that) will stand as the law. As it should be.
In the intentionally tricky wording of such deals - where yes means no, and no means yes - has the supporters of 'gay' marriage voting no, and people who don't like gay marriage voting yes, which will confuse a few people, as usual, but I think most people know what the deal is. And in the major urban areas the NO vote is huge, and a lot of people are expecting a low turnout among republicans due to the McCain/Palin debacle.
But, and here is the deal. Its California, and only California. Yet.... yet, yet - most of the money has come in from out of state (on both sides) and that's wrong. So, I have great discussions about Cali political stuff with people who live here, but if you don't, then you should be working in your political backyard, and not others.
Its not a national issue. yet.
And I for one, but I'm sure there are more, are not thrilled with people who this does not effect, can not vote on it, and do not live here, somehow feeling that its got something to do with them.