I do think HRT changes the voice more than we think. I've noticed that there seems to be a common theme, where although the pitch of trans-women's voices does not change without training, the voice gets softer, less forceful, more feminine in tone.
I'm not sure if this is because of the HRT, or because of social differences where being around other women and imitating them makes us naturally start to copy their tone and inflection more, but I definitely have noticed a big difference. I can't shout like I used to, my speaking tone has gotten way softer (lots of people have been asking me to speak up recently,) and it has gotten REALLY hard to do my old male voice. When I try to do it now, it doesn't even sound like my old voice anymore. The pitch is there, but it just sounds... different... forced... not natural in some way anymore.