I know most of you don't come to susans to talk about things like this. But this is the only
site I visit, many of you are my friends and you know how freaked I can get and I need to talk about this.

I'm really really concerned about the future. More than I've ever been. I've been through layoff's, market
crashes, recessions but this one just feels different. I'm hoping that maybe it's because I'm reacting differently
being on HRT, but it seems to me that there is really really something very bad going to happen this time. I have
quite a bit of background in economics and everything I know just does not apply this time. We are stuck between
two very bad choices and I think by this time next year it will be clear how bad those choices are. I hope that I'm
wrong but I just don't see any way out of this without severe consequences and I'm normally a very positive
person. I voted for Obama in the primary but now his latest tax idea's are REALLY scaring me. The best thing right
now is for everyone tinkering with the economy is to keep their hands off it and let the system work.

So how concerned are you and how is the economic atmosphere in your area?

People are certainly trying to scare me, the headlines and the news. Seems like it would be in someone's interest to have me scared and not mine. I go with the reasoning that all i actually need, for home, bills and food is £130 a week, and anything extra is a bonus (which is good, i'm not getting any extra).

In a world yes.  Not for myself, but for most of the people I know.

I don't worry much about it myself, I work in an industry (entertainment and liquor sales) that by tradition do very well in hard times.  I'm also used to working as a janitor with a PhD, so I'll get by.

But for a lot of people, they are going to be singing, "hard times come again no more."

My take on it tends to be "wait it out."  We could listen to all the hysteria on the streets, but it's better for us and for the economy if we keep our heads cool.

Buffet has a saying.. something like "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."  I don't have any experience, but based on what I've learned and heard from others, now would be the perfect time to buy some good stocks with proven longevity and then sit tight and wait for them to go up again, because they will.  A recession is not the end of the world, it is not an economy collapsing, even though it might seem like it.  A recession lasts a few years and then things get better.  I'm actually really glad this is happening now because I have another few years before I graduate college, and by then, things should be looking up.

I mean, that one day when Dow Jones fell 700 points was the largest point drop in history, but it was NOT the largest percentage drop in history.  Not even close.  The amount of money floating around is still huge, it just had a longer way to fall since it was so artificially inflated.

Short-term, I'm nervous.  But long-term, I think things are going to be okay.

See that is kinda what I'm getting at. My feeling is that the public thinks this is going to be like the 1987 crash, we crash,
we rocket up 30% the next couple of year and never look back. I think it's going to be like 1929, we crash... and by
crash I mean DOW somewhere around 4000 and then we are mired in severe recession or depression for several years.

I don't listen to the TV news media much at all so I'm not sure what they are saying but everything that I read and analyze
for myself says that there is no quick fix for what ails us. We are going to crash hard this time. I posted something about this
earlier this year here at susans , I half hearted tried to find it and I could not. But basically in looking at the Fed banking
numbers my thinking at the start of this year was the banks were insolvent before anyone was saying so. Just the fact that
the government has gone to such extreme measures as to buy into banks to me speaks volumes. I think even if we don't
crash it will go down in history as a worse disaster than 1929. And if we had Buffet's deep pockets we could all be greedy right now.

I hope it's just the hormones 

Amanda

It's pretty impossible for it to be as bad as the one in 1929, because of all the government protections that were put in place afterward.  There won't be all those disastrous runs on banks since, for the most part, our deposits are insured and won't just suddenly disappear.  The banks appear to be holding steady for now, some small ones might give out but the large ones are so large that they'll hold up.  Plus, while unemployment is down, it doesn't appear to be down at the kinds of levels that would signify something of that scale.

Everyone right now is already saying that this will be the worst thing to hit us since 1929.  But, from what I've read, that doesn't seem to say all that much.  The recessions we've been in since 1929 haven't been all that earth-shakingly bad, so if this one is worse, yeah, it'll hit people hard.. but we'll survive.  There's a lot of people in my family who are heavily involved in the economy and the stock market.. and the consensus seems to be, "It sucks, but it'll pass.  People need to remember that the economy runs in cycles, and that it will go up again."

Another reason why I don't think it'll be some big catastrophe is that the economy is so global right now.  For it to be a catastrophe over here would also make a catastrophe in every single other country in the world, just by virtue of it all being so interdependent.  It just doesn't seem likely.  That would be apocalyptic in scale.

It may be hormones, I know when I'm hormonal I find myself stressing out about stuff that normally wouldn't phase me much.

PS- Warren Buffet may be ridiculously rich, but how did he get that way?  By having some pretty good insight into how things work and what the future is likely to hold. I trust his experience.

Am I worried? Of course, everyone should be. Not so much about the "recession" they refuse to refer to as such, but because our leaders obviously have no clue as to what to do about it and the general public demands that they do. It does not help with media that loves to sensationalize and traders who love to make people scared to make a buck, then believe their own scare stories.

As for me... I have income from many sources and industries, I can weather the storm.

because of all the government protections that were put in place afterward.

Remember, that Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, spent 28 years now trying very hard, and in many cases being very successful in dismantling all that, like the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

If you think things can't get worse, your not thinking.

Quote from: tekla on October 23, 2008, 06:57:16 PM
because of all the government protections that were put in place afterward.

Remember, that Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, spent 28 years now trying very hard, and in many cases being very successful in dismantling all that, like the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.

If you think things can't get worse, your not thinking.

A lot of protections and safeguards put in place were ignored or purposely not used.
No point in having protections in place if you refuse to use them.

Im not scared as much as it was a wake up call. I have decided to go back to work after hanging around for over 2 years (1 was semi working). A lot of it has  to do with retirement,i am middle aged? (38) and my retirement has tanked. I know a lot of this has to do with the fact that I was in high risk stuff because I have a while for retirement. I also want to go back to work in order to be putting money in now since the market is so low. I also just want to have a safety net which has evaporated. I will weather thru this, I think it was a good wake up call for some who got themselves over extended. Things can definitely get worse I laugh when people say its going to be a depression, definitely not going that far. Unemployment would need to be 25% and much more would need to be happening with the market and in the country.
Myles
Interesting as I went back to school and in Macroeconomics, definitely a good time to be studying that. I was also in the process of reading Alan Greenspans book before school started, when ever I have free reading time again I'll definitely pick it back up.

I didn't say things can't get worse, I said I doubt it will be as bad as the Great Depression.

You are right in that it it will [not] be as bad as the Great Depression.   In fact, by the time all is said and done, and the cards fall, it might well be much, much worse.

the economy  is bad in my area  up till yesterday we was ranked  number one inthe  usa as haveing the worset economy . but now

with the new report out we are now ranked number two .    but iam lucky  for the most part . cuase i have things

covered . but never the less iam still very concered about it. but also i do have hope that the economy will trun around

The pound dropped the lowest it has ever been since over a decade before my birth.

Hooray, my debts are worth less.

yes, i'm worried. fine time for this to happen just when i'm out of the game.

I do have a lot of concerns about the local economy.  The county where i live is primarily agricultural (apples).  We had late spring / early summer hailstorms that damaged a significant portion of the crop.  Some orchards lost their entire crop.  It was the first time I had ever seen hail coat the ground like snow.  Not just once but on three seperate occassions this year.

A substantial portion of New York State's funding comes from NYC and Wall Street.  With the falling markets comes less funding for education.  There is a rumor going around in the education circles that the state may not give all the funding it promised.  While my area is protected (science), there are several teachers who are wondering if they are going to be downsized at the end of this year.

There are fewer and fewer people working in technology or industrial jobs in my county / school district.  That means less funding by tax payers.

The next few years are going to be rough...

Chaunte

QuoteYou are right in that it it will [not] be as bad as the Great Depression.   In fact, by the time all is said and
done, and the cards fall, it might well be much, much worse.

That is what I'm scared off. I don't think most people realize how epic the problems are that we now
face. And it's worldwide. During past recessions there have been bright spots in the world economy, if we
were down, Europe or Asia was up. Now the whole world is headed down. Everything I look at tells
me that the next three or four years is going to be really really bad.

I really expect a meltdown of the stock market soon as what we've seen so far does not justify
the current economic outlook. It way not happen this week but at some point soon there will be
a jaw dropping crash. And the really scary thing is the stock market has always been a leading economic indicator,
so things are BAD now but it's predicting that things will be even worse soon.

The fed released the bank reserve figures last week and it is clear that the banking system is insolvent. They have
no reserves. All their capital is borrowed from the federal government. Last October they had 41 billion in
reserves. Last week the fed reported that all those reserves are gone and the banks owe the goverment 362 billion
dollars. There is no capital for banks to loan. It's all borrowed.

Also don't believe the government numbers for un-employment and inflation, they are all rigged. Everyone
knows that based on how much just the cost of living has gone up that inflation is much higher than what is
being reported. And employment is a joke since it does not count people that simply give up looking for work.

I'm normally a REALLY positive person but Tekla is SO right, things might be much much worse than the
Great Depression.

Amanda

Just some random facts.

-  Just a few weeks ago the largest car dealership in the United States closed.  They sold Chevy cars.  Not an unpopular brand.

-  Car dealerships that even up to one year ago were selling ten cars a day, now are selling one car every ten days.

-  Foreclosure rates are at an all time high

-  We use fewer people on show calls now.  Bands are not dragging near the amount of stuff with them they did even a few years ago.  What five years ago would have been a full semi, has been reduced to a trailer behind a bus, and were we would use 12 people for the semi, we only use 6 for the trailer.

-  Go to your favorite stores, or even the ones you don't like so much, and look at the amount of stuff now on the clearance racks.  Its huge.  Most stuff I've seen in my life (and yes I do pay attention), and that's because no one bought it over the last 4-6 months. 

-  People going out are going out less, and spending less once they get there.  Spending is down in concerts, nightclubs and restaurants, while revenue is up in small bars and off sales ---- THIS IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN.

The economy in my area is totally dependent on the college and the college students, and it's suffering.  Several businesses are suffering, and a lot of retail stores are having "clearance" sales almost every weekend.  I was at the mall yesterday and there were at least six stores that had huge clearance racks outside their door, but there were dozens of people spending ridiculous amounts of money on Halloween costumes. 

Meanwhile, the local bars and nightclubs are booming, maybe more than usual for a college town of this size.  The grocery store I work at is cutting hours for full-time employees, and many places are not hiring.  I'm lucky I have a job.

Crime is going up too.  In the past two weeks there was a car set on fire in front of my friends apartment, a guy was mugged, and another student got hit in the head with a crowbar.  Things are pretty bad up here, but I'm managing to get by.  Barely.

I'm afraid things might get worse but I'm trying not to think about it.  The past two weeks have been emotionally rough on me and I'm just trying to finish my studies and not worry about the world collapsing around me.

Jenn

oooh im scared! do i has get cookie?

*many drama llama's were slain for this post*